Santa Anita: DRF Plus handicapping report for February 15, 2014

Race 1

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Race 2

Spot Play

Improving AWESOME PROSPECT (#7, 7-2) won last time on turf, and previously ran well on dirt. Good main-track work since raced, and likely for a good trip third behind the speed. If he handles dirt, he can win. The gamble is he will. -Brad Free

Spot Play

WONDERFUL UNION (#5, 7-2) Yes, he’s a maiden facing winners, but numbers (both his Beyers and the M/L) strongly suggest he belongs in this starter route. Ellis had a dominating winner Friday at SA and has put 5 works into this $150k yearling purchase since he opened up a big margin on mdns. at HollyPark before settling for second. Figures prominently throughout under Maldonado. – Marty McGee

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Race 3

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Race 4

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Race 5

Spot Play

COWTOWNMARY (#2, 5-2) Heady first try at 10-1 makes this guy an obvious threat on the slight stretchout and with benefit of that first effort. Allures Bejarano while favorably drawn toward the hedge; Machowsky shows a solid ROI with second-timers. Careful rating from top jock could do the trick. – Marty McGee

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Race 6

Spot Play

A better-than-looked debut by SUPERLOOOPER (#3, 6-1) stamps the maiden as a “best bet.” He had trouble first time. He took up early, raced between and behind horses, was shuffled back on the turn, and finished evenly. He worked well since. -Brad Free

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Race 7

Spot Play

FAMOUS ALICE (#4, 5-2) made quite a splash in her debut on the BHP turf Nov. 23, biding her time and powering home to win much easier than the 1 1/2-length margin might suggest. She was then entered in a stakes but had to scratch due to an ailment, and wasn’t seen again until Jan. 19 in an optional claimer on this hillside course. She dueled and tired a bit late, finishing 2 1/4 lengths behind today’s foe On the Backstreets. She can certainly benefit from that outing, there’s no layoff this time and a return to more patient stalking tactics can help her gain her revenge on ‘Backstreets. -Michael Hammersly

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Race 8

Santa Maria Stakes by Michael Hammersly

The absence of the likes of champion Beholder and much-ballyhooed Eblouissante actually makes this a very intriguing test. After all, you can make a case for every gal in this field. FIFTYSHADESOFHAY is no doubt the one to beat. She’s a proven commodity having knocked heads with some of the best of her peers and her last two outings, while losses, were still very good. When fourth in BHP’s Grade 2 Bayakoa Dec. 7 she blew the start and ran into perfect trip alone-on-the-lead Broken Sword but still ran on well to be a clear second. She then got squeezed back at the start of the Grade 2 La Canada here Jan. 19 but kept to her task nicely to be beaten just a length. She has ample tactical speed to be in a better position early on, and as those last two races attest, she can make up ground as well.

That being said, her overall strong form likely means she’s the favorite and there’s very little between these gals so it’s time to look for someone who may be ready to peak. That could come in the form of IOTAPA. The daughter of Grade 1 Preakness/Grade 1 Belmont winner Afleet Alex won sprinting here a year ago and was second to champion Beholder in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Oaks last April 6 (beaten FIFTYSHADESOFHAY by a neck, no less). She ran well on BHP’s synthetic and DMR turf before going to the bench for six months. When she returned in the Grade 2 Santa Monica here Jan. 25 at 7 furlongs she broke slowly but after biding her time ran on well for second to the talented Scherzinger, beating Grade 1 winner Teddy’s Promise in the process.

That looks like the ideal tightener and while all three of her wins have come sprinting she’s shown ample route ability. Her tactical speed can have her in a good spot stalking the pace until she’s ready to pounce. And two smart works since, including a snappy 5 furlongs in :59.80 here Feb. 10 (second fastest of 47 at that distance that day) says she’s feeling spry. The depth of contention here likely means she can still go off at an attractive price, somewhere in the 7-2/4-1 range.

As noted above, FIFTYSHADESOFHAY is a proven commodity. She’s been unlucky of late but with a better start can be in a good spot from the start and dangerous all the way to the line. She’s handled herself well against the likes of Beholder and Princess of Sylmar.

There are other options exotically speaking as well. If you can get IOTAPA home in one of the top two spots you can possibly get a nice reward if you can get FIFTYSHADESOFHAY to finish out of the exacta. The likes of LET FAITH ARISE and ONDINE are prime candidates. Not only did they finish a neck apart when second and third in the Grade 2 La Canada (meaning they beat IOTAPA by just under a length) but they’re both eligible to improve. LET FAITH ARISE was making her first start on this main track and first start in 2 1/2 months. She stalked the pace and kept to her task gamely to be beaten just a neck. That was a most encouraging first local try and it was also her first route so she can certainly move forward with that under her belt. Oh, she’s worked lights-out twice since (5 furlongs in :59.80 here Feb. 1; 6 furlongs in 1:11.80 here Feb. 9).

ONDINE, third in the La Canada, was making her first start in over four months that day. Two of her three wins have come on dirt and she’s won twice at this 1 1/16-mile trip. She has the speed to be forwardly placed form the start and with that first run out of the way after the layoff she can certainly improve and be even tougher.

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Race 9

Vulnerable Favorite

TEACHER TEACHER (#7, 2-1) took a nice step forward when dropped to $40K here Jan. 2 as she ran on decently for 3rd and that heat has been flattered (2 came out of it to win next time out). She also drops further here which could make her that much tougher. That being said, the Beyer wasn’t overwhelming (64), it’s not as if she was a real threat in the lane (was 3 lengths off the lead at the eighth pole and finished 3 lengths behind the winner) and she faces some other droppers here, too. And you have to wonder, at age 7 could it be her best chances have come and gone? -Michael Hammersly

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