Santa Anita: DRF Plus handicapping report for April 5, 2014

Race 1 Formulator PPs

Closer Looks >>

Race 2 Formulator PPs

Closer Looks >>

Race 3 Formulator PPs

Closer Looks >>

Race 4 Formulator PPs

Closer Looks >>

Race 5 Formulator PPs

Santa Anita Oaks by Michael Hammersly

Whether you agreed with the stewards’ decision that gave RIA ANTONIA the win in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies here Nov. 2 (count me among the dissenting) one thing rang true – the daughter of Rockport Harbor ran a very nice race. She was only a nose behind top-class and eventual champion She’s a Tiger and while that gal lugged out causing the interference which the stewards deemed enough for her disqualification, this gal’s proximity to that filly shows her quality.

In fact, in the weeks after her connections were talking big plans for the spring and we’re not talking Kentucky Oaks – they were talking Kentucky Derby and had plans in the winter to come back vs. the boys to see where they stood.

Well, as the saying goes, the best laid plans…you know the rest. Instead of coming back against males they opted for the Grade 3 Rachel Alexandra at Fair Grounds Feb. 22. She was no factor at any point as she was slow into stride and finished a so-so fourth, beaten 14 1/4 lengths. Of course, that doesn’t look as bad now since the winner was Untapable, who romped by 9 1/2 lengths that day and came right back to romp again in the Grade 2 Fair Grounds Oaks.

RIA ANTONIA’s ownership didn’t think the filly was tight enough for the Rachel Alexandra and opted for a change. They shipped her West to a track they knew liked (this one) and moved her to Bob Baffert’s care.

There’s a sense of urgency for her to fire. Not only will that validate the move, and would also be proof by Baffert that he knew what to do with her, but after the Rachel Alexandra dud there’s a real question as to whether she’s even a Kentucky Oaks filly. They need the questions answered here.

Baffert removes the blinkers which she wore for the BC Juvenile Fillies and the Rachel Alexandra and the best news is that she has a typical Baffert work pattern, meaning fast works. Usually when Trainer Bob’s horses work fast, they tend to race fast.

It also doesn’t hurt she gets away from a monster like Untapable and doesn’t face the strongest bunch here. The top West Coast fillies She’s a Tiger, Streaming, Taste Like Candy, Awesome Baby and Crushed Velvet are not here for varying reasons. One who is here and must be dealt with is FASHION PLATE. That gal made her first start on dirt in a sprint here Dec. 29 and blasted maidens by 6 1/2 lengths. She then took the huge leap from there to run in the Grade 1 Las Virgenes, also her first route, here Feb. 1 and gamely led wire to wire. With the rail draw and her confirmed speed she’s sure to go and try to play keep-away again. But it’s worth noting that in the Las Virgenes runner-up Streaming and third-place finisher (and today’s rival) ARETHUSA were getting to her at the end of that mile race. Today she must deal with another half-furlong and there’s also the presence of HONEY RIDE, who showed in her maiden win she has speed. SMOOVE IT comes out of sprints where she was frequently prominent early, meaning on this stretchout she could be up there as well. In other words, the lead may not be as comfortable for FASHION PLATE as it was last time, and thus the extra half-furlong could be telling.

All the while RIA ANTONIA should get a great trip. Baffert’s works have pumped some speed into her to be sure, and that likely translates to a stalking trip and not her customary lag-back-and-try-to-make-one-big-run strategy.

As mentioned, RIA ANTONIA has questions to answer and they need to be answered today to determine where she goes from here. Hunch here is the answers comeback affirmative, though since she’s being opened as the 2-1 favorite don’t expect to get rich on her if that’s the case.

Closer Looks >>

Race 6 Formulator PPs

Vulnerable Favorite

ROVENNA (#6, 3-1) is the deserving favorite as she last seen winning easily here, defeating today’s foe Harlington’s Rose, who flattered her by coming back to romp herself. That being said, she hasn’t been seen since (Feb. 17) and she’s up in class facing a few toughies including ‘Rose who has improved since they met back on Feb. 17. -Michael Hammersly

Closer Looks >>

Race 7 Formulator PPs

Providencia Stakes by Michael Hammersly

Pedigree is one thing, but if there’s no performance behind it then it’s just a glitzy wrapper. The good news with inexperienced 3-year-old filly NASHOBA’S GOLD is that not only does she have some bloodline oomph but she shows she more than belongs at this level, and while she was foiled in the China Doll at a mile here March 8 there’s every reason to believe she can remedy that situation at this longer 1 1/8-mile trip.

She’s a daughter of Smart Strike, not only a Grade 1 winner in his own right but sire of two-time Horse of the Year Curlin (who was also Grade 1 placed on turf) AND champion turf horse English Channel. And that’s just the top side. ON the bottom she’s out of Nashoba, meaning she’s kin to top-class mare Nashoba’s Key. All that gal did was win 8 of 10 (4 for 6 on turf) including the Grade 1 Yellow Ribbon and fourth in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf.

In her debut, NASHOBA’S KEY bided her time early at this 1 1/8-mile trip and came with a strong sustained run to beat maidens. In her first try against winners she was tossed into the China Doll, at a shorter mile trip. She again lagged back and finished well but ran out of ground, finishing second to today’s foe and likely favorite DIVERSY HARBOR. But that was going a mile – surely today’s added furlong bolsters her cause. Also, that was just career start No. 2 so she can certainly improve.

Of course, she MUST improve if she’s to beat these but not only did her Beyer go north in start No. 2 but she since worked lights-out, including a bullet :49.60 bullet on turf here March 29. Gaines handled her vaunted half-sister so she likely knows what makes this gal tick and with a solid pace likely ensured, while she doesn’t much speed she still has more than archrival DIVERSY HARBOR, meaning she can like white in chess – that she’ll get to move first and get first run on that tough gal. And with DIVERSY HARBOR being undefeated in two starts it likely means this gal’s price stays palatable, likely in the 5-2/3-1 range.

Of course, DIVERSY HARBOR isn’t just going to lie down and this to ‘GOLD. DIVERSY HARBOR, a daughter of the aforementioned superstar Curlin, is 2 for 2, with both wins coming on this course, the first sprinting down the hill and the second, the China Doll, at a mile here. She tacks on another full furlong but there’s no reason to believe she won’t handle it.

That being said, she only beat ‘GOLD by a half-length in the China Doll and if anything today’s added furlong figures to help ‘GOLD, not to mention the fact ‘GOLD has a smidge more speed, meaning jockey Joe Talamo can rearview, see what ‘HARBOR is doing and adjust from there. This isn’t just a two-horse race, mind you. If NASHOBA’S GOLD can lock down the top spot there are others who could have a supporting role exotically speaking. FULL RANSOM won the Grade 3 Miesque at Betfair at Hollywood Park Nov. 30 and was a good second in the Blue Norther here Jan. 1. She was way too far back after a trouble start from a brutal post (No. 13) in the China Doll here March 8 and ran 12th but can surely do better. TIZ KISSABLE was 3rd in the China Doll, just 1 1/2 lengths behind DIVERSY HARBOR and a length behind NASHOBA’S GOLD, so by extrapolation if you like those two you have to respect TIZ KISSABLE. PRACTISING came from England off two sharp seconds and then blasted home to win her U.S. debut over maidens here Jan. 18. She didn’t repeat that big effort at this trip here march 13 when fourth (beaten 3 lengths by today’s foe ONE MORE) but she’s worked since, it’s good to see they actually move her up in class AND that leading rider Rafael Bejarano stays in a race where he likely had options.

Closer Looks >>

Race 8 Formulator PPs

Santa Anita Derby by Marcus Hersh

Half the field in the Santa Anita Derby has – in my book – no chance to win and only a very small chance even to nab third. The decidedly lower tier: RPRETTBOYFLOYD, FRIENDSWITH K MILL, BIG TIRE, and DUBLIN UP. Dublin Up, though, is a key cog in the race, because unless the addition of blinkers snaps some speed into Rprettyboyfloyd, he’s the only horse that can run early with favored CALIFORNIA CHROME. California Chrome doesn’t need the lead, but he doesn’t mind it, either, and the colt has made good progress learning to relax early in his races. If Dublin Up doesn’t show, and California Chrome strolls through an easy opening half-mile, I just don’t see anyone catching him.

Don’t get me wrong: I’m generally a Cal Chrome skeptic. I will be very surprised if even 9 furlongs – to say nothing of 10 – is ideal for a very speedy horse, and he has gotten (thanks partly to his own talent and professionalism) absolutely beautiful trips during his three-race win streak. I include his front-end run on a supercharged pace in the San Felipe in that category: It’s hasn’t been emphasized enough how much the Santa Anita main track played to inside paths and speed that card, and I don’t believe it was any coincidence that the San Felipe and the Santa Anita Handicap had identical race shapes.

To the other contenders. I believe HOPPERTUNITY is the best horse in the race. Ignore his career debut: This is no sprinter, and you’ll see on replay that Hoppertunity wastes little time running past the top finishers during his gallop-out. He regressed slightly and was too far off the pace in the Risen Star, and while he was lucky Tapiture got into trouble in the Rebel, he still beat Tapiture, a truly elite early-season 3-year-old. But Hoppertunity is making his third start in six weeks and twice has shipped during that time. His trainer just wants an interim race before the Kentucky Derby, and Hoppertunity has worked one mild five-eighths since the Rebel. He is not being trained for a peak race, and the race shape might be against him, and those factors make a short price tough to take.

CANDY BOY is overrated right now, but he has talent and potential, and he’s a big, strong horse without a lot of speed, and should still be moving forward. I’m not seeing the tough trip some have referenced in the Feb. 8 Lewis, and do keep in mind Candy Boy missed training shortly after that start. He has generally been progressive his entire career and in my mind stands a much better chance of comfortably seeing out nine furlongs than California Chrome, but Cal Chrome is easily the more advanced and tactically superior horse at the moment.

Which lead to the horse I’d be most interested to key in wagers Saturday – SCHOOLOFHARDROCKS. There’s a decent chance he was a short horse racing after a six-month layoff in the San Felipe, besides attempting an outside-stalking trip on an inside-speed track, and his was another gallop out that bears watching: Beaten 15 lengths by the winner, he had run past him – and everyone else – on the midpoint of the clubhouse turn. Not sure he can reproduce it on dirt, but his stride in his excellent Polytrack debut win last summer was very impressive. He’s the one with upside at a price today, and even a second-place finish behind one of the big three would appealingly boost exacta and trifecta payoffs.

Closer Looks >>

Race 9 Formulator PPs

Closer Looks >>

Race 10 Formulator PPs

Closer Looks >>

Race 11 Formulator PPs

Spot Play

JOEANDBETTY’SBABY (#10, 7-2) has done her best work on this hillside course as she’s won 3 of her 7 tries on it (accounting for all her wins). She won for $32K here Dec. 29 and was claimed but then found N1X foes too tough Jan. 24. She went back in for $32K but was wide into the lane and never really got going. Well, she drops another notch, has 2 solid recent works and is reunited with Bejarano, who was up for her last 2 wins, which obviously came on this course. -Michael Hammersly

Closer Looks >>