Santa Anita: DRF Plus handicapping report for April 25, 2014
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Last Tycoon Stakes by Michael HammerslyWhen ROOKIE SENSATION looked so smashing winning the Grade 2 Twilight Derby on this course Nov. 1 he looked destined for big things. Alas, then came a decent fifth in the Grade 1 Hollywood Derby, also on turf, then a dull run (eighth) in the Grade 2 Strub on dirt here and suddenly the fuzz was off the peach. Were we so wrong to see him as a real comer? Well, yes and no. The fact he didn’t fare so well in his next two starts was disappointing, yes, and, may have meant we overrated him off that big Twilight Derby win. However, when he came back here on turf here March 15 in a strong optional claimer he had a brutal trip but still finished full of run to be a sharp second, beaten just a head. So, the crux of the matter may be that while he can certainly do damage in the right spot on another course he has the chance to be a bigshot on THIS turf course. After all, his two best efforts came on this turf course, both at this same 1 1/8-mile trip, too. That big March 15 try showed something else – that there were no ill effects from his Strub disaster, and that the layoff by trainer John Shirreffs, of Zenyatta fame, was right on the money. Regrouping and moving back to turf, specifically THIS turf has the 4-year-old son of Unbridled’s Song back on track. In that aforementioned March 15 race he was slow into stride. He was trying to make a move turning for home but had his path blocked, and remained so until midstretch. It looked hopeless to be sure once a lane did develop but he burst through and came home strongly to just miss, showing the talent is there and his affinity for this course is there. From a tactical standpoint he has some versatility. He’s not one you would expect to see on the lead at this type of trip, but he’s got enough tactical speed to be forwardly placed. That can serve him well as stretching-out sprinter LAKERVILLE may be the main speed with the likes of JOELITO and FIRE WITH FIRE figuring in close pursuit. Rider Mike Smith can position off those guys and keep this guy out of traffic because as long as he has clear sailing he looks primed to get back on the winning track. And with a few other sharpies in here his price may stay palatable - though don't expect to get rich on him. JOELITO showed talent in 2013 but appears to be putting it all together this year. The son of Rock Hard Ten came back from a long layoff (seven months) to be a sharp second in a grass sprint here Feb. 14. He then gamely won a tough optional claimer at this trip here March 6 and was then second to Grade 2-placed Tom’s Tribute in the Thunder Road going a mile on this course April 6. His Beyers have jumped since returning and his last three figs (97, 94, 92) give him more than enough oomph to be a big player. LAKERVILLE is interesting. He’s been entered in and scratched from a few spots of late as his connections hunt around for the best spot. Almost all his work – which has been pretty darn nice – has come sprinting. His lone route came in the Grade 1 Kilroe Mile here March 8 and while he ran sixth he wasn’t disgraced as he was beaten just 3 1/4 lengths. And the five who beat him included four Grade 1 winners and a Grade 2 winner. On the stretchout he may be the quickest and though his work previously has all been from off the pace there’s no reason he can’t adapt should he clear and relax early. FIRE WITH FIRE has guts, versatility and a touch of class. He won the Grade 2 San Luis Rey wire to wire here March 22 but that was at 12 furlongs; Friday’s shorter trip surely means a quicker pace. Still, that’s OK by him as he’s shown he can stalk and finish. And he just beat some quality runners to he’s by no means out of his element vs. these.
Spot PlayJOELITO (#3, 2-1) has made steady progress in each start for trainer Jerry Hollendorfer, capped a fine second in the Thunder Road Stakes recently with a three-wide trip; back racing 1 1/8 miles, a trip over which he won two starts ago; single in multi-race gimmicks. – Byron King
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Spot PlayI DON’T CARE WHO (#1, 5-2) was claimed by Mullins for $25K last fall and wasn’t seen again for 3 months, which was a tad disconcerting. Well, that worry has been pushed aside as this guy came back with 2 romping wins this winter, first for $32K and then for $40K. Those were enough to earn a shot at a touch bunch at this level here March 29 and he continued his good form finishing a solid 3rd vs. a bunch that appeared tougher than these. It’s great to see he holds his form and there’s no panicky drop back in for a tag by Mullins. The slight distance cutback may help, too, as this guy is 3-for-3 at this mile trip. -Michael Hammersly
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Race 8 |
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