Santa Anita: Closer Looks for October 18, 2013

Race 1

Green Beret

Debut on SR sod was quite encouraging (rallied for 4th) but then Aug. 23 at DMR wasn't very pretty; in his defense, he had to ship, was trying synthetic for the first time, was up in price and then blew the start to boot; freshened since, moves down in class and to dirt and he's sure been working well on this dirt of late; 2 sibs are Witty Kid (3 wins, $91K) and Fantastic Mizz (2 wins, $103K).

Expedite

Sire Fusaichi Pegasus gets over 10% debut winners, according to DRF sire stats; sire won 6 of 9 for $1.9 million, won G1 SA Derby, 3 G2s, 2nd in G1 Preakness; dam has 2 winners from 3 foals including Sweet Ducky (3 wins, $268K, 2 SWs, G3 SP); dam won 8 of 21 for $411K, had 2 SWs, also twice G2 SP); been working along steadily and doesn't face any monsters for this first go-round.

El Tovar

A couple nice efforts at BSR in September encourage; in fact, he only missed by a neck there Sept. 21; that being said, both came at about 4fs - he's going nearly another 2fs today; at least he kept to his task well in this 2 shorter outings to indicate he can handle this added ground, so that's nice; but geez, could he have worked much slower than he did at BHP Oct. 13 (3fs in :39.80, 22nd fastest of 24 that day), hmmmmm?

Italian Mirage

A win would be a nice tribute to his dad as his sire McCann's Mojave just passed away a few days ago; first 2 starts weren't very pretty but hey, those were just his first 2 starts and both came for $50K; so, with those under his belt he drops and moves to dirt, both of which can help as it's a better level and he's worked well here of late; 3 sibs are winners including Kalookan Dancer (8 wins, $404K, multiple SW/SP) and Kalookan Heat (6 wins, $41K).

Dragon Dance

No factor at any point first time out but you can always be forgiving about a debut run; you can even be more forgiving as that run came vs. straight maidens where the winner (Wild Dude) may be a stakes horse and the runner-up came right back to win; now takes the most important drop in the game and Bejarano sees fit to ride; 2 sibs to race have yet to win.

Joe Hardoon

Didn't run badly in first 4 starts last fall/winter but none of the outings really get the pulse racing; in his defense, 3 of the 4 came vs. tougher than he sees here and only 1 of the 4 came on dry land (2 wet tracks, 1 synthetic); still, hasn't been seen in over 7 months but at least he's been working sharply on PLN dirt the past month or so; 2 of 7 sibs to race are winners Politarium (2 wins, $48K) and Ming Rose (3 wins, $23K).

Educated Guess

Sire Lion Heart gets over 14% debut winners; sire won 5 of 10 for $1.3 million, won G1 Hollywood Futurity, G1 Haskel, 2nd in G1 Ky. Derby, G1 Blue Grass, also 2 G3 SWs; dam's 3 foals are winners including Coach Royal (2 wins, $173K); dam had 1 2nd, 2 3rds in 6 starts for $19K; works aren't bad for a trainer who's quite capable first out (17%).

Race 2

Heyyoucan

Five of the seven horses in the field are coming out of the same race and this guy finished in front of all of them including his stablemate Tosheen; there should be an honest pace to set him up and the only concern is that he could get bogged down on the rail; he would look a lot better from a different post but it's still hard to go past him; the pick.

Tosheen

Dueled and held on well to finish a length behind Heyyoucan and once again he figures to be involved right from the start; there is other speed in the field but he does look like the quickest and could be gone if he breaks on top; like the way his Beyer Speed Figures have improved in his two starts on dirt; big shot.

Bushwacked

He earned his career-best Beyer Speed Figure in his win in Pomona and he'll need to keep moving forward to contend here; the five horses coming out of the race that have started since all got beat by double digits in their next outing so he wasn't beating much; prefer others.

Z Z Way

Looked like he might do some damage when he was sitting just off Heyyoucan on the stretch turn but he came up empty in the drive and wasn't much of a threat; he is reunited with Guiterrez who was aboard for his win in his debut at Del Mar but that was on Poly and his two races on dirt leave a lot to be desired; prefer others.

Tupelo Cush

He lost any chance he had when he stumbled at the start and Valdivia lost an iron in the common race; Valdivia did right eventually right himself but the damage was done and he eased him in the stretch; he finished in front of Z Z Way at BSR two back and he had a couple of decent efforts earlier this year at Golden Gate and Hollywood so he could rebound here with Valdivia keeping the faith; bottom half of the exotics?

Battle Jet

He earned a nice Beyer Speed Figure for his debut win at BSR and took a lot of support when he came back in the Heyoucan race but had an eventful trip; first he ducked in at the start and then Lopez had to strangle him so he wouldn't run over horses when he was on heels going down the backstretch; better post today and he could make some noise with a clean trip; consider for the exotics.

Snowmass Village

He looked good winning his debut as the chalk at Hollywood and then couldn't keep up in a key race in his next start at Del Mar; the winner came back to win the $150K I'm Smokin for Cal-breds in his next start; he is a half to $238K Church Avenue who won 10 sprints and he has been working well enough for his return; contender.

Race 3

Rolanda

She could be closer to the pace here with a sharper start and if the fractions are more reasonable than they were last time; the race was also her first start in blinkers; note the winner of it came back in her next start to take a $25K optional claimer at SA, with a Beyer Figure of 79; contender in competitive race.

Commander Cloud

She faced winners for the first time last out and ran a respectable fourth at 33-1; seems like one who can be closer to the pace than she found herself in that race, when she rallied in a large field; much, it seems, will depend on the pace in this spot; is returning to the distance of her maiden score.

Cavalletta

She exits a productive race; the fourth-place finisher, Upward Spiral, came back in her next start to take an N1X at GG with a Beyer Figure of 74, and the eighth-place finisher, Heart Stealer, a $25K optional claimer at GP, with a Beyer of 93; returns to the level of her best recent finishes; win candidate.

Buckingham Bull

She's now settled in in Southern California after starting her career on the East Coast; shows some strong works for what will be her first race since a Del Mar out in August; the latest was a near bullet in 59.60 seconds Oct. 11; owns field's best last-race Beyer Figure; looks like a leading contender.

Marina Del Heat

May foal makes the move back to two turns and she figures to be sharp for the task off the six and a half furlong turf start at SA; last win came in a route, and while it was on the main track, note she did put up her best Beyer Figure on the grass; an improving sort.

Little Unusual

Maiden facing winners here, perhaps for a timely shot to get back on the turf as she has done arguably her best work on the grass; last seems like a toss out as she encountered trouble early on in what was her dirt debut; again faces the winner of that race, Marina Del Heat, and gets in light under apprentice Nicolas.

Intoxicating Move

She's another maiden taking on winners, and again it could be for a timely shot on turf; this one has fired some strong races on the grass, and the turf has also been the site of her best career Beyer Figure; like a number of these, she could share.

Classic Journey

Barn changes things up and sends this one a route of ground and after a pacesetting effort at five furlongs looking for her to possibly be showing the way; the question will be how far she can journey; do note she finished first in a seven and a half furlong turf race back in January.

Joint Attempt

She must overcome the widest post, but is appealing for her maiden win that came at this distance on turf; she also owns competitive Beyer Figures; further, she exits a quick race and could be closer to the action here if the fractions are more reasonable; leading contender.

Race 5

Shrilanka

Makes her first start in more than 13 months after just missing in the Del Mar turf stake second time out; dam was a limited surface winner he's worked long of late for the comebacker, but the barn hasn't had a lot of recent luck first time back; she's shown she can run some on the footing, but she'll catch a decent field in her comebacker; price should be right.

Street Rapper

Works are slow and the barn doesn't do its best work right out of the box; sire gets 10% overall first out winners and better than 13% first surface winners from his offspring; 2 time route winning dam was 0 for 2 on the green prior to dropping winners from both of her foals to race, but the one to try the green was off the board in each of her 2 tries over it.

My Looloo

Hood goes on after offering a little bit of run first time both going long and on the green at Del Mar; pedigree is nothing special for this footing so don't know that she's going to take a big step forward second time over it, but maybe the new equipment finds her closer early and with less to do in the lane.

Nickels Wild

Sat a good trip when trying the lawn for the first time and though she was only beaten a couple of lengths, she failed to hit the board and a couple of these gals hit the wire ahead of her in that one; last weekend's drill should help her offer more early here and she has shown that she has some ability; sibs are a combined 0 for 8 on the green, however.

Passionate Diva

Just missed on the Del Mar main track after coming up short late in her turf debut; filly broke from an outside slot in that initial surface try and she may be able to work out a better trip from here; she's the first foal to race out of a G2 SW dam who won 6 times on the green and banked 487K; one to beat.

Sealington

Beaten last out chalk gives the lawn a shot while going long for the second time; sire is just 1 for 21 with his first time surface runners and the dam was winless prior to dropping foals who were a combined 0 for 20 in as many international spins; have to side with others on the win end.

Switched Up

Slow start marred her surface debut try at Del Mar, but she didn't do much running thereafter; recent drills are improved and she is kin to 4 main track winners including 1.4 million earner and multiple G1 SW Switch, so though she's not bred to love the green she could have more to offer with the initial experience behind her.

Nicegirlsfnishlast

Ran well to just miss a nose to the last out runner up who returns in this spot as well; expecting she'll be better with her first start in 8 months behind her and she's been working rather steadily in the interim for this one; contender.

Miss Charming

Brings some speed to the table while stretching out and trying the lawn for the initial time in this spot; filly goes for an outfit that excels with its first turfers and her sire gets 10% winners with that type; dam was a G3 SW turfer and 224K earner who dropped 7 surface winners including multiple G1 SW and 1.7 million earner Tout Charmant; expecting she'll take to the footing and have to be caught.

Serene Melody

Gets the worst of the pace draw after missing just a half length for all the money while nosing one of today's foes first time on the green; she's another who can be better with the try behind her and the interim drills suggest she's on her toes for this one; she's kin to a handful of good ones including European G1 SW and 443K earner Sophisticat; can't be overlooked.

Lucky Lady

AE had some trouble early in her upstate turf debut last month and now she'll tackle this tougher circuit from an outside slot if she gets to go; she's worked ok a few times in the interim but the barn hasn't done so well with its second out runners and there's not a lot of surface pedigree here.

Flaxen Maiden

AE returns to the lawn while stepping up to face MSWs in her first start since early in the Del Mar meeting; just missed sprinting on synthetic footing last time and she's been ok on the green in the past, but don't know that she's good enough to threaten this bunch right now if she gets in.

Lakota Road

AE is on the bottom of the list and doesn't figure to get in to make her first start off the claim by an outfit that's had a lot of recent luck with this type; she failed to threaten cheap claimers on the Del Mar main track and though her Breeders Cup Turf Mile winning sire gets nearly 14% winners from his first time turfers there's not much turf on the dam's side of the pedigree.

Race 7

Pebble Beach Baby

Only turf try wasn't too hot, but hey, she was facing tough optional claimers inlcuding elders; it was also her first route; chased the pace and fizzled in a dirt sprint vs. tougher again here Oct. 10 but now she's back in vs. 3yos and in for a tag - though you still have questions about her turf ability; she is at least kin to Yacht Spotter (11-time winner on turf, G2/G3 SP on turf).

Bares Tripper

Has won on turf so she's at least proven on the footing; that being said, that win came going 6fs - we're playing at a mile today and her 2 turf routes saw her weaken each time, fading to 4th and 6th; those did come vs. tougher and she drops after trying a dirt sprint stakes at BSR Sept. 6; lures Bejarano and stylewise you know what to expect - she figures to be out there winging early making them come get her; still, she's a big question mark come furlongs 7 and up, isn't she?

Hard Buns

Winless in 10 turf tries, a bit of a surprise for a daughter of top grass sire Rock Hard Ten; just 1 2nd and 1 3rd makes her even more of a questoin mark on this footing; that being said, she wasn't disgraced when 5th vs. tougher on this course Sept. 28 (beaten 3 1/4 lengths) so maybe today's drop get her back on track...maybe.

Tayrona

Dueled and hit the brakes hard in her only turf try (9th) at BHP June 23; in her defense, that was her first try on sod and the duel didn't help; was freshened and came back to beat maidens on DMR's main track before being in too tough there Aug. 31; freshened again and that worked for her maiden win, though the footing remains a mystery, particularly when you note it's also her first route today.

Tebowing

Turf ability shown in a route maiden win on this course Feb. 16 and then a strong 3rd at this level at DMR July 21 (rallied to be beaten just a neck by today's foe Awe' Some Kitten); won for $32K on DMR's main track Aug. 8 and was claimed by Julio, who next tried her in a tough spot (where she couldn't be claimed away) at BSR Sept. 15; that didn't go so well so it's back to turf and back in for a tag, but it's still more than they paid for her.

Explosive Argument

Did run 2nd on turf at LS June 13, though let's face it - she wasn't really a threat to the winner (beaten 4 lengths); came to SoCal and promptly posted a 22-1 upset at this level sprinting on DMR's main track Aug. 11 before finding a stakes sprint too tough at BSR Sept. 20; back to turf, back to a route and down in class but all 3 wins have come sprinting on dirt so is this really the game she wants?

Say Say

Sire Private Gold is 1 for first 14 (about 7%) first time turf, 4 for first 36 (11%) overall on turf, according to DRF sire stats; sire won 3 of 13 for $208K, was 2-time SW and G3 SP in Ky., had 1 3rd from 3 turf tries; dam has 3 winners from 5 foals including Knight Raider (4 wins, $97K, 3 SWs on dirt at EMD) and Oneknightledo (6 wins, $49K, 3-0-1-2 on turf); dam won 6 of 18 for $46K, off board only turf try; comes off a big dirt mile win for $12,500 at EMD Sept. 20 but this isn't dirt, isn't EMD and she's way up in price so there are some big hurdles.

Lady Katfish

0 for 3 on turf but that 3rd for $62,500 sprinting on the BHP sod June 14 (after 4 months off) wasn't bad (beaten 3 lengths by Bares Tripper) and she was a decent 4th on the hill here last Nov. 1; class level seem a good fit and 4 works since her last race encourage; likely needs to improve to be a major player but that isn't out of reach.

Awe' Some Kitten

Won a turf route at this very level at DMR July 21 to stamp her a proven commodity, though it's worth noting she only beat Tebowing by a neck and a nose so it's not as if she comes here holding all the aces; 4th (to Tebowing) on DMR's main track for $32K Aug. 8 and was claimed, and new trainer Bacorn tried her against toughies on turf here Sept. 28; she had a terrible post, blew the start and was no factor; she certainly fits better at this level so the drop helps, though she's again stuck way outside; regardless, has to be considered one of the ones.

Race 8

Chantal's Girl

New game going long in last but that didn't pan out well nor did the other time she broke from the rail; backers can point to the fact there are several multiple race winners in the tree including 6 for 10 near $200K earner Ata Olympio; she flashed her career speed the day the blinks came off but they go on here; brief threat?

John's War

Youngster passed a couple of tired runners last time in his first sprint attempt; the winner on 7/19 repeated in a $16K N2L fray, then ran out of the money; the show horse in last graduated at this very level, then was 4th beaten just over 2 in an $8K claimer; miss would benefit by a hot and heavy pace and a meltdown.

Rsweet Serendipity

She was at least getting a little interested late at Pomona; connections would love to see her start acting like top kin Drought Breaker, who took a stakes and banked over $200K; not sure what to make of the drill on the 7th; has to hurry.

Charger Girl

She posted mirror races at Fairplex and neither was pretty; several winners in the tree but none were special; would have liked to see some local activity; hard to boost this form.

Chumash

In career cheap spot but maybe she belonged here all along as a $5,500 purchase; dam was out of the money twice; one of 3 siblings won; that runner, Dashwood, took one of 4, banked nearly $25K; she got a feel of the strip and she had the off slow excuse in the debut; legit player here.

Magic Maya

Miss was stopped on after flashing career speed last time; she opened career last year in a promising way when closing ground after breaking poorly but she has not been able to duplicate that Beyer; place horse in the 2013 opener graduated next out in this league, then was 2nd beaten three quarters in a $25K N2L event; back to the original pilot; don't ignore.

Magic Number

The DMR finale came back okay as the place horse graduated next out and the winner repeated in a $40K starter at Fairplex with a 73 Beyer; must be left in the mix as blinks re-added; she posted the top 63 Beyer with shades in May.

Paralyzing Eyes

She has the 2 races to draw from, is off a career Beyer, but that Fairplex form doesn t always travel; this miss has sneaky speed; note she was just a length off the pace here in March; can't be tossed.

Renegade Ride

The huge drop is logical after a pair of non-efforts; stakes placed 3 for 10 dam banked over $150K; this is her first to race; she has trained fast for this; is drawn right, if she can run at all, she figures to show it here.