Santa Anita: Closer Looks for March 16, 2014

Race 1

Aqua Revelation

Exits a best-last-race Beyer speed figure when outfinished in a race he needed off the 8-week layoff; adds blinkers a 29%-winning angle for his trainer while keeping high-percentage Bejarano is a plus; figures to be in the pace mix from bell to finish today.

Next Right

Projects as the one to catch after dueling in his lone sprint start on the lead; 1st blinkers in latest and return to dirt produced a career-low Beyer as the show-finish jockey stays with Aqua Revelation for this;11%-winning dirt-to-turf trainer since 2013; know him early but unsure about late.

Apostle Paul

2-back start produced a field-best Beyer speed figure when just missing in this same spot; bounced in latest losing to Aqua Revelation who also beat him at BHP; needs a well-timed ride to graduate here; is ranked a notch below the top contenders.

Misdeed

29%-winning angle for the trainer with blinkers on; best Beyer was at 1 Mile on dirt and has a lot of work to do to turn the tables on Warrior's Ridge among others; middle moved in latest and should improve stamina 2nd time off the long layoff; off latest others appeal more.

Warrior's Ridge

Was screaming out for more distance in last and gets it here for a 29%-winning sprint-to-route trainer; the 2-back show runner Beyered 84 in his next-out SA-MSW win; posted his best dirt workout ever for this; the 3-back runner-up and show finishers Beyered 79-77 in next-out SA-MSW wins; seems to be sitting on a big effort.

Heat Flash

Also entered Saturday in a 6F-dirt Cal-bred MSW event which would be his 1st-ever main-track start; exits back-to-back Beyer-career Tops trying to avoid a bounce racing back in just 22 days after drilling latest with nearly 7 months away; the 2-back show finisher Beyered 72 in a next-out DMR-MSW win.

Supreme Commander

Lone-turf start was a far-back finish defeated by the runner-up finisher who Beyered 86 in a next-out SAR-MSW win; away since a career-low speed figure defeated by the runner-up who posted a 79 speed figure in his next-out AQU-MSW win. - Art Gropper

Race 2

Katerrific

Tiz Wonderful notched his debut at 2 and has sired an impressive 23% first-out winners; dam was unraced, and this is her first foal to start; trainer hit with 7% of his maiden special first-timers over the past five years ($0.85 ROI); cost $90K as a 2yo in training.

Seattle Charlie

Placed in three of her five outings, including in a recent turf experiment going down the hill, which was won by a 7-1 first-time starter; Hollendorfer possesses solid turf/dirt stats, and when he's given Bejarano a leg up; logical for the bottom of vertical wagers.

Wasted At Midnight

Checked in fifth behind Seattle Charlie after saving ground in an improved effort following a layoff Feb. 6; that was her first outing for esteemed trainer Mandella, who's excelled second-time off a break; has worked fast leading up to this engagement, and could round out the tri.

Faith Hope Love

Front-runner might be faster than Seattle Charlie; she's riding the wave of three straight runner-up placings, and is stretching out to a distance which is seemingly farther than her optimum; vulnerable favorite is clearly a must-use underneath in exotics.

Courageous Call

Intriguing newcomer could be in the catbird seat here tracking favorites Seattle Charlie and Faith Hope Love; has been working quickly for Ellis, who's won with at a fabulous 23% clip with new shooters returning from a six-month-plus layoff during the last five years ($2.20 ROI); preferred. - Ron Geirkink

Race 3

Valarta

Held well from inside position 2 weeks ago and the numerical rise in class today is not that severe; drilled a solid half-mile since the latest showing and perhaps can move off the fence early and try to make a bid against Tempe; will need to run a personal best today in order to hit the board.

Tempe

Has very fine gate speed and although she held on for dear life at a shorter distance last month, she could steal away today; in his sole try at today's trip, she was unable to grab the early lead and was taken out of her game; can return instant dividends for the new connections.

Innocent Love

Looks like the only lady in the field who can put some pressure on the front-runner to her left; had all kinds of trouble when facing a much better group at Emerald last year; returning workouts along the long comeback trail have shown progression.

Two Blue Hens

Back to the main oval where she rallied strong to defeat n2ls types in early January; the last pair of a.m. moves suggests she has improved her game substantially and may be able to inhale the apparent clear speed today; should be a major late factor.

Miss American Pie

Did not lose by all that much to Tempe 2 weeks ago when attempting to middle move; that effort followed an extensive layoff and she should be far tighter for this assignment; lures Baze for this venture and must be respected; obvious true contender.

Honest Desire

Deep rallier makes her Santa Anita debut and is one of 3 in the field coming off a claim; overcame moderate fractions in the last run to just miss and will probably have to rally from much further back today; probably arrives too late for top prize regardless of how the pace develops.

Awe' Some Kitten

Might have been cramped by rail position in the most recent test on the turf; both prior defeats over this main track were against better company; outside post can actually work in her favor now and she should offer decent betting value as well; consider. - Jim Kachulis

Race 5

Lets Get Frisky

She has to prove that she can be at her best racing over turf, but she does look like a good fit at this level of competition, and she has a lot of turf in her pedigree; like the idea of her getting another chance to see what she can do racing over turf after an encouraging performance off of a layoff in her latest outing.

Vegas Rules

A case can be made for this mare being at her best racing over a synthetic surface and she's going to need to see a number of these show up with less than their best to have a chance at the top spot; runner-up from latest returned to win next out here on 2/6 going 6f vs. N1X alw. rivals with a 77 Beyer.

Senjen

Sire wins with approximately 8% of his turf starters and dam won 12 of 33 starts for 144k, and she didn't make a start over turf; tough to envision her getting the job done against these in her turf debut.

Anya Amasova

Sire wins with approximately 4% of his turf starters and dam won once from nine starts for 10k, and she didn't make a turf start; this filly is a 1/2 to Lara Antipova (2-4, 31k, including 1-for-1 over turf for 18k); turf is a question, but this looks like a good spot to find out what she can do over turf, and she sports the best last race Beyer Speed Figure in here.

Warren's Dixi Bell

It's a concern to see that she's needed a lot of time off between recent starts, butt she did run well the first time she tried turf, and with only four starts behind her, perhaps there's still some room for improvement.

J and S Express

She's seeking her first turf victory, but her turf form has been on the level of what it might take to get the job done in this spot, and she's been in good form going back five starts to October of last year; runner up from latest won next out here on 3/9 going 6 1/2f vs. 20k OPC's with an 82 Beyer.

Noise of the Crowd

Don't like to see that she's produced back-to-back sub par performances prior to this, or that she's needed a lot of time off between her recent starts, but her best performance is clearly strong enough to make her a player in this spot, and she is being reunited with Bejarano.

Hanserella

Three of her last five starts have been three of the stronger performances of her career, but it's difficult to have confidence in her for the top spot when seeing that she has just a single victory after 28 starts with a combined 11 second and third place finishes.

Midnight Lady

Her form sprinting over turf hasn't been bad at all and she figures to appreciate turning back to a sprint distance for this; however, she was claimed away from Sadler two back, and that might be a reason to approach her with some caution.

Mark of a Gem

She brings a high degree of early speed with her and she put that speed to good use when breaking her maiden sprinting down the hill three starts ago; she's out of a multiple stakes place dam who won 2 of 9 starts for 118k, including 1 of 5 turf starts for 79k; gate-to-finish threat.

Lil Swiss Echo

She's performed well as a late running turf sprinter and the rider switch to Nakatani is worth noting when seeing that he wins with a high percentage of his mounts for this outfit; a couple of her workouts look lively, so going to look for her to be ready for her return to action. - Brian Pochman

Race 7

Miss Serendipity (ARG)

It's probably worth noting the presence of Stevens and Bejarano aboard others in here, and Stevens was aboard the winner of her latest race, but she's two-for-two in the quality start department since arriving in America, and there's a chance that she'll see a favorable early pace scenario in this event.

Stormy Lucy

She's multiple G1 stakes placed racing over turf and she might be ready to step up with one of her better performances while making her second start back from a layoff; she can be a tough customer on her best day, and viewing the rider switch to Bejarano as a positive indicator.

Emotional Kitten

She was last seen earning a G2 victory over turf at Churchill Downs, but she's facing much tougher competition in this G2 event, and this will be the first time in her career that she's faced older rivals; her form has been solid, and a number of her recent workouts look strong, but leaning toward others.

Topic

Something seemed to click with her the day she broke her maiden, and she followed that performance up with a fine third-place finish behind a couple of today's rivals in the G1 American Oaks; that said, it does look like she's going to need to dial up a career best effort to see her number posted on top after this one is run.

Nickels Wild

She nearly earned a G3 stakes placing over this turf course just two races ago, in a race where she didn't finish all that far behind one of today's key rivals in Stormy Lucy, but she's the only one in here with just a single win next to her name, and she is going to have to take her game to another level to get the job done in this spot.

Emollient

If this multiple G1 winner is ready to pick up where she left off when finishing a strong fourth in the BC F&M Turf, she's going to be tough to deny in her 4-year-old racing debut; over the past five years, Mott and Smith have teamed to win with 17 of 33 (52%) starters in graded stakes races, including 5 of 14 (36%) turf starters.

Floral Romance

Wygod-homebred is the weaker of the two Mott-trained fillies in here, and in a race where the winner looks like she'll earn a figure in the mid 90's, or possibly into the 100's, this miss sports a top figure of 85; winner from latest won next out at Tam on 3/8 going 1 1/8m over turf in a G3 with an 88 Beyer. - Brian Pochman

Race 8

The Admiral

Seems the one to catch here off a field-best Beyer speed figure at 7F but will have to fend off Papa Turf from the gate then hold off the closers; El Nino Terrible easily handled him 2-back when sent today's distance posting a career-low Beyer; obviously got along well 1st-time Espinoza piloting; know him early then hopes to hang on late.

Friendswith K Mill

Finished evenly sprinting in his only dirt start; it took a grass race and the drop into a maiden claimer to get him to graduate; has plenty to prove vs. winners with a surface switch; has been working on dirt like he will like it with 38 days since the graduation; will be taking a wait and see approach.

The Mad Hungarian

2 in a row on SA dirt adding another half furlong for this while gets in with his lightest-weight assignment ever; was flattered by the show finisher from last who Beyered 66 in a next-out SA-16K-claming win; has been working like he is ready to fire another new Top.

Papa Turf

Has not raced past 7F yet; sire went 4-0-1-1 (79K) in routes; dam did not race past 7F on dirt; her turf win was at 8.5F; projects as part of the pace with El Nino Terrible and The Admiral; the 2-back runner-up finisher Beyered 92 in a next-out SA-optional-claimng win; the November winner made it 3-for-3 next out in a BHP Grade 1 with a 106 speed figure.

Roger Rocket

Has not raced past 7F yet; G2 sire went 3-for-5 in routes (712K); 0-for-2 dam did not race past 7F; rider from 1st pair sides with Papa Turf; 28%-winning sprint-to-route trainer adds to the appeal; beat the debut runner-up finisher who Beyered 84 in a next-out SA-MSW win.

El Nino Terrible

Exits a career-low Beyer when overmatched in a Grade 2 event right off the 1st-blinkered maiden breaker all at today's distance over the SA dirt; best game was on the lead but in latest stalked the front then had nothing left; has The Admiral and Papa Turf to beat out of the gate then keep on going.

True Ten

Has not raced past 6F yet; sire won the Santa Anita Handicap and 1.6M in routes; dam did not race past 6.5F but produced Grade 2-stakes winner Notional (3-for-6 routes 677K); just 1 start so still has plenty of upside.

Cool Samurai

In his last 2 stats defeated both El Nino Terrible and The Admiral so clearly has the credentials to win this; breaks widest of them all so sure to lose ground but benefits being a closer in race with a lot of gate speed including Papa Turf. - Art Gropper

Race 9

Korban

Grass debut was solid; never been a big fans of the rail on this course unless a runner has speed and this guy can give you a :44 and change half when in the mood; drilling solidly for trainer that has spotted them super all meet; respect this senior citizen.

Usbek Thunder (BRZ)

In a cagey barn that is due for some luck; runner still seeking the stateside score but this is his preferred surface; note he beat the small field for the last win; probably from pretty far back if at all.

Kilat

Once put on grass, he became a new horse; first time for sale today, one would figure it will be an all out go; love fact he has speed but can track and succeed; and the winning experience over the course could prove huge at crunch time; look out.

Omar

Was trying winners for the first time in the debut on turf; toss it; like the fact he has shown good speed of late but he can track and still succeed; winner of last repeated 8 days ago in an N1X with an 84 Beyer; note he won the last time for sale; don't ignore.

Justa Gusta

The lone grass try was in a $32K route and this runner was beaten over 6 lengths; been a long time between drinks and this race comes up contentious; not thrilled with the defeats vs. much softer; passing.

Carbonite

The back class is there for all to see; a double winner on the hill, if you figure he just needed the last, one can make a case for a move forward; he did dawdle out of the gate but can be much quicker if he is gunned; expect much better effort this time.

Luz Atticus

The experience on the hillside can only help; proven in this league and the show horse in that victory won next out for this price when put up by the stewards and has been out of the money twice since vs. tougher; contention goes deep.

Gold Medallion

Two for 35 is a tough number to bet into no matter how you slice and this runner has never won on grass; like the spacing of the drills but it's been eons since he has seen a cameraman and could be left with a ton of work to do late; can't push.

Candy's Sunrise

Respect hot claim box item; he lost a heart breaker 2 back and the winner of last repeated here Thursday in a $35K claimer on this course going 1:12.03; note this rider was up for the last victory; should be in the thick of it when the smoke clears.

Mr. Bossy Pants

What a meeting this trainer has had and he's been winning in bunches in Phoenix too; he has saddled 94 winners there this meet at a 30% clip and is 52 winners ahead of the 2nd most successful trainer at TUP at that meet; distance specialist is repeatedly proven at this level; last angle: rider is 23% for this outfit. he exits a race named for 2-time NBA Coach of the Year Cotton Fitzsimmons and that race came back live; the place horse took a $35K stakes next out and the 4th and 6th finishers also cashed in the next start;

Koast

Pro has an ideal style for this course as 3 of his 4 wins have been after crossing the dirt at the top of the lane; he can make the top if needed but could be best served settling, tracking and getting into it in the final furlong; can't fault those that give him another shot after failing as chalk. - Brian Mulligan