Santa Anita analysis for Tuesday, January 1, 2019

BEST BET: Dubnation (4th race)

First Race
1. Blitzkrieg 2. Jimmy Chila 3. Rumpus Cat
New Year's Day, first post 12 noon. BLITZKRIEG finished a better-than-looked fourth last out at this starter condition. Normally a presser, he broke slowly, lost position, dropped far back and then closed belatedly in a race won by the pacesetter. Under the circumstances, it was a solid off-the-pace effort. With a clean takeoff this time, he can reel in the speed. JIMMY CHILA has been knocking heads with better; he finished an okay second last out in a N1X on synthetic at Golden Gate. Both career wins were turf, he can stay a mile if the pace is slow. RUMPUS CAT ran the best race of his career last out, winning a maiden-62.5k first start off the claim. He fits perfect here. EAST RAND has faced tougher; he will roll late.

Second Race
1. Kindred 2. Dannie Joe 3. Jeweled
First time for a claim tag, with sufficient speed to establish position from the inside post, KINDRED is the one to beat in this $25k claiming N2L sprint. DANNIE JOE took care of business first start back, winning a Cal-bred maiden-claiming sprint in decisive fashion. She earned a decent figure in victory; the knock is all four rivals she defeated returned to finish off the board in maiden races. Maybe the race was not as good as it looks? JEWELED finished second in back-to-back N2L claiming races at Los Al, she has enough speed to be forwardly placed.

Third Race
1. Midnight Lilly 2. Lea's Reward 3. Carrie's Success
MIDNIGHT LILLY gets the call in this N3L claiming route, despite a dull recent effort as the favorite in a similar race at Los Al. She merely ran around the track and was non-competitive. Maybe she needed the start, or maybe she is going off form. This field came up weak, her races in late summer and fall (one win, three seconds) would be good enough. LEA'S REWARD has something the top choice lacks. That is, speed. She could make the lead, and could get brave in a weak race without much pace. CARRIE'S SUCCESS stretches out for the first time and should be closer to the front than she has been recently in sprints.

Fourth Race
1. Dubnation 2. Red Envelope 3. Bouncing Around
DUBNATION, a 4-year-old maiden making his second start, is the most probable winner on the card. He chased a blazing pace and held second in his debut two months ago, trained steadily since, and should move forward with that race under his belt. DUBNATION is a sibling to multiple stakes winner Smokey Image. RED ENVELOPE should keep the top choice honest on the front end. A five-start maiden with speed, he was positioned in front of the top choice last time, but faded in the lane. That was the third start of his form cycle, and it is now evident that 'ENVELOPE runs his best races fresh (debut runner-up, comeback runner-up). First since November, drawn outside, 'ENVELOPE looms a contender with a front-running/pace-pressing trip. BOUNCING AROUND shortens back to one turn and returns to dirt. Look for him late.

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Fifth Race
1. Surprise Fashion 2. You Must Chill 3. Zorich
SURPRISE FASHION drops from maiden-80 to maiden-50 for this turf mile; his closing fractions are fastest in the field. He can sit, wait and blast home for the win. Maybe. He is the second call for jockey Joel Rosario. YOU MUST CHILL had the lead at the furlong pole both recent starts, but surrendered the lead both times and finished third. Decent form anyway, blinkers on, logical contender. ZORICH showed late run in his career debut two months ago. He drops from maiden special-weight, adds blinkers and is likely to improve. SEA OF LIBERTY, Rosario's first call, adds Lasix and stretches to a route after a better-than-looked runner-up debut. He was claimed from that race by John Sadler, whose first-off-the-claim record with maidens is super: 8-for-32 the past five years.

Sixth Race
1. Very Very Stella 2. Ike Walker 3. Avanti Bello
Runner-up in a four-horse field last out, VERY VERY STELLA has been an honest veteran throughout his 9-for-41 career, and has held sharp form since his summer arrival from the East Coast to California. He has enough tactical speed to be forwardly placed in a $40k claiming mile that should unfold at a tepid clip. IKE WALKER was in tough spots in summer and fall; he returns from a freshening of nearly two months and drops slightly in class. AVANTI BELLO is a potential pacesetter in a race without much serious speed. Claimed two back for $32k in a 19-way shake, he misfired last time as the favorite but his October-November races would be plenty good enough. SHEER FLATTERY will not be far away.

Seventh Race
1. Captain Scotty 2. Red Lightning 3. Solid Wager
Back-to-back runner-up finishes by CAPTAIN SCOTTY at this N2X level stamps the front-runner/pace-presser the logical choice. He is drawn directly outside his main pace rival. RED LIGHTNING has an upset chance, second start back following an extended layoff. He finished last in his comeback, but he has a history of improving second start back. Two of his three works since his return were best-of-the-morning moves over the Santa Anita surface. Tab for improvement, possibly at a price. SOLID WAGER, the only entrant entered for the optional $62.5k claim tag, romped last time out at Del Mar. He is a 10-for-47 pro that will fly late. THREEFIVEINDIA is first-time Rosario. That matters. LORD SIMBA may improve second start back, while his stablemate MICRORITHMS is the aforementioned pace rival for the top choice.

Eighth Race
1. Caribou Club 2. Stormy Liberal 3. Conquest Tsunami
It might be folly to go against the favorite in this G3 turf sprint, but CARIBOU CLUB could be poised to upset STORMY LIBERAL. The presence of several front-runners suggests the pace should be legit in this downhill dash; 'CLUB will need pace to flatter his closing kick. He upset a G2 turf route last out, he runs well on the hill and can storm late to post a mild surprise over the favorite. It will not be easy, because STORMY LIBERAL is among the country's top turf sprinters. Back-to-back winner of the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint at Del Mar and Churchill Downs, he is an eight-time winner on the Santa Anita downhill layout. The "best horse" in the field, with more tactical speed than the top choice, 'LIBERAL should get a cozy trip positioned right behind the speed. CONQUEST TSUNAMI, Peter Miller-trained stablemate of the favorite, returns to "firm" after misfiring on "yielding" in Kentucky. Possibly the speed of the field, he figures as a contender although he will face early challenges from front-runners CISTRON and PUBILIUS SYRUS. The veteran CALCULATOR had a tough trip last time finishing second.

Ninth Race
1. Lucky Student 2. Princess Kendra 3. Tiger Mom
A runaway win last out by 9-year-old mare LUCKY STUDENT was validated when the second- and fourth-place finishers returned to win. 'STUDENT returns at the same $8k claiming class level, she is drawn outside most of her pace rivals and looms an obvious choice. PRINCESS KENDRA is the late threat, if the pace gets too fast. She is a prototypical late-running sprinter, facing a field with a handful of front-runners. The point is, she will have her chance. TIGER MOM improved last out when she returned to dirt. ESKENFORADRINK, HERO FOR HIRE and SOUGHT MORE PEP add speed.

Tenth Race
1. Teacher's Treasure 2. Clem Labine 3. Listing
Based on a romping maiden win on dirt in his third start, and a pedigree that suggests the move to grass will be just fine, TEACHER'S TREASURE gets the call to win this Calbred N1X turf sprint. Each start by 'TREASURE has been better than the one before including a visually impressive score last out. Sired by Square Eddie and a sibling to multiple turf winner Easy Grader, the surface switch is okay. Meanwhile, the winning debut by also-eligible CLEM LABINE was outstanding. Six-wide into the turn and four-wide coming out, he ran away by three lengths in a maiden victory that was better than the figure or margin of victory. He is by Grazen, whose progeny have won 18 percent of their starts on turf. No telling how good this guy might be. LISTING won a stakes race in his career debut, then was unplaced in two tough spots (Grade 1, highly rated state-bred stakes). Freshened two months, he figures as a contender off his summer debut. SCOUTED finished fourth behind the top choice, then came back and scored a sharp maiden win. Sired by Twirling Candy, he benefits by a switch to turf.