Sammy Davis hitting all the right notes but no cinch in I'm Smokin
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DEL MAR, Calif. – The numbers look good for front-runner Sammy Davis in the I’m Smokin Stakes, a sprint for California-bred 2-year-olds Friday at Del Mar. But some recent trends may not play in the John Sadler trainee’s favor.
Sammy Davis is 2 for 2 following a decisive stakes victory that earned a 78 Beyer Speed Figure, the highest in the I’m Smokin field. Sammy Davis is the only two-time winner in the field, and the speedster’s running lines are filled with 1s. He wired the field both starts. Lots of attributes.
Anyone betting against Sammy Davis might ask, “What kind of fool am I?”
But when Sammy Davis seeks his third win of the meet Friday, history is not on his side. Only one horse the last 13 years has won three races during a Del Mar summer meet (Chismosa in 2022). Sammy Davis also did not draw well and will break from the rail. Finally, only one favorite has won the I’m Smokin since 2016. Favoritism on Friday is likely to be Sammy Davis or Thirsty Rebel.
Sadler believes Sammy Davis, a gelding by Sir Prancealot, has held form during an ambitious campaign. “He’s remarkable in that he’s bounced out of these races well,” Sadler said. “The only concern would be three starts at the meet. But we’ve been really cognizant he’s handled it really well.”
Sammy Davis, owned by Legacy Ranch, could wire the I’m Smokin under jockey Hector Berrios. But the eight-horse field includes three legit contenders trained by Doug O’Neill. Thirsty Rebel scored an impressive debut win in a productive race. Saul Elliott won his debut in May and had an excuse for a subsequent misfire. Pavlovian finished second in a Grade 3.
The $100,000 I’m Smokin, previously six furlongs, is shortened this year to 5 1/2 furlongs. The field also includes Desert Dawg, Another Bulleit, Max Ciao, and Fionello.
Thirsty Rebel’s debut victory over an above-average field gives him a license to win the I’m Smokin. Despite the rail draw in a 10-horse field, Thirsty Rebel ran like a pro as the 2-1 favorite. He took dirt, rated kindly, angled out, and crushed by almost four lengths. The second- and fourth-place finishers won next out, the sixth-place finisher returned to finish second.
Thirsty Rebel “is a nice horse,” O’Neill said, emphasis on nice. “He’s got a lot of natural speed. He ran lights-out, and he continued to train really well.” Thirsty Rebel, by Stay Thirsty, will be ridden by Abel Lezcano and enters as the most likely winner of the I’m Smokin.
Saul Elliott won his debut at Santa Anita, then shipped to Churchill Downs for the Bashford Manor Stakes in June. He finished sixth of seven.
“It was a hot day back there, he just didn’t fire,” O’Neill said. “He bled a little bit. We got him cleaned up and he’s been working well. We’re expecting a good effort from him.”
Antonio Fresu rides Saul Elliott.
Pavlovian was a maiden winner two back. The late-runner finished second last out in the Grade 3 Best Pal Stakes, 8 3/4 lengths behind winner Desert Gate. Umberto Rispoli rides.
◗ Counterbalance, a promising 2-year-old filly, makes her second start in race 6, a maiden turf mile, after an outstanding fourth-place dirt-sprint debut in which she finished well and galloped out super.
Counterbalance, by Caravaggio, is bred to route on turf. Her dam is by Kitten’s Joy. Her second dam is multiple Grade 1 winner Balance. Michael McCarthy trains Counterbalance, whose rider is Kazushi Kimura.
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