Saffron Hall drops off a win
RACE REPLAY IS NOT AVAILABLELOUISVILLE, Ky. – In the days before optional-claiming races, when tracks ran standard allowances without a claiming option, horses had to move up in class off a victory. Those days are over, provided a trainer is willing to run a horse for a price.
In Thursday’s ninth race at Churchill Downs, a $45,000 second-level allowance with a $62,500 claiming condition, half of the eight entries in the 1 1/8-mile turf race for 3-year-olds and up are running for a claiming price, and two enter off a victory.
Even if a horse is claimed, his owner will be well compensated, with any purse earnings added to the $62,500.
Saffron Hall, the likely favorite, is actually moving down in class – having won a third-level allowance at Keeneland by a nose Oct. 10, earning a 90 Beyer Speed Figure. He runs for the $62,500 tag.
DRF FORMULATOR FACT: No. 4 Saffron Hall. Trainer Mike Maker is 82-26-13-7 with a $2.08 ROI over the past year in turf routes with last-out winners. Click for more details. – Mike Hogan
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Red Strike, his principal foe, has similar form. Having already cleared his allowance conditions, he won a race at this level when running for $62,500 tag on Sept. 28 at Churchill and returns right back running for the price again.
DRF FORMULATOR FACT: No. 8 Red Strike. His victory last out has come back live. He beat two next-out winners, with all six next-out runners finishing in the money. Click for more details. – Mike Hogan
Though those two are the most likely winners on turf, they become lesser players if Thursday’s race is moved to the main track due to inclement weather. There is a threat of rain forecasted through Thursday for the Louisville area.
Key contenders
Saffron Hall (Last 3 Beyers: 90-85-90)
◗ He has won 6 of 9 starts in 2013-14 and had excuses for his three losses over that stretch: One came on dirt, another off a long layoff, and the third in a graded stakes race.
Perfect Title (Last 3 Beyers: 86-91-93)
◗ He has not started on grass and would benefit from an off-the-turf scenario.
◗ A deep closer, he has twice managed third-place finishes over wet main tracks.
DRF FORMULATOR FACT: No. 5 Perfect Title. Trainer Dallas Stewart is 51-0-3-8 over the last five years going dirt to turf in all races. Click for more details. – Mike Hogan
Red Strike (Last 3 Beyers: 89-85-91)
◗ He has been first or second in six of seven starts for his current connections, with the exception coming when he finished fifth in a stakes at Louisiana Downs.
Coin Broker (Last 3 Beyers: 80-93-89)
◗ Unraced on turf, his chances improve if this race is moved to dirt, where he has won 2 races from 6 starts.
◗ He moves in with easier after running third in the Grade 2 Alysheba and eighth in the Grade 3 Cornhusker.