Royal Flag might just be star in making

In December, Royal Flag faced three foes in a muddy-track maiden race at Aqueduct, overwhelming them coming off the turn and drawing away to post an eight-length victory at odds of 3-10. It was fair to wonder if the wide margin was a true marker of Royal Flag’s ability since Royal Flag ran up the score over a wet track and in a short field.

But Feb. 7 at Gulfstream Park, Royal Flag quieted skeptical burbling, winning a first-level allowance race over better horses by nine lengths. Royal Flag is up in class again Sunday at Churchill Downs when she starts in the featured ninth race, a second-level allowance with a $62,500 claiming option carded for 1 1/16 miles on dirt and restricted to females.

Royal Flag, a Will Farish homebred trained by Chad Brown, is a 4-year-old filly by Candy Ride out of Sea Gull, whose first foal to race was Eagle, a Grade 3 dirt-route winner, and whose third foal to race was Catalina Cruiser, a five-time Grade 2 winner. Royal Flag posted her first workout during August of her 2-year-old season, and by the time she debuted last September she had logged 27 works spread across 13 months. Horses with this sort of profile can prove brittle even after getting into racing pattern, and it remains to be seen how things develop with Royal Flag, but she can run. The filly goes with her head held low, traveling easily while displaying useful positional pace, and she looks like a filly who can get at least 1 1/8 miles.

As a betting proposition Sunday, she’ll hold less appeal, and probably will go off well below anything approaching fair value, since there is some real competition entered.

Saracosa has been facing some of the best female dirt horses in North America and drops into allowance competition after finishing fifth in the Grade 1 Apple Blossom, beaten only about three lengths by victorious Ce Ce. The start before, she finished third as Serengeti Empress ran away with the Azeri Stakes, and her previous start came in the Houston Ladies Classic. The Apple Blossom did feature a frenetic early and middle pace that flattered all the closers, Saracosa among them.

More Roses has started her career with two blowout wins but is tough to read. She won a maiden race by more than six lengths and a first-level allowance by 5 1/2, but both races were rained from turf onto dirt and came late last spring at Indiana Grand. More Roses is joined in the field by her Brad Cox-trained stablemate Razeena.

Deflated odds or not, Royal Flag still looms the most likely winner as she marches toward stakes competition.