Royal Ascot Stats Guide: Wednesday, June 17, 2020

No one knows more about the crucial trends behind the races at Royal Ascot than Paul Jones, is compiling comprehensive Stats Guides for over 30 races at Royal Ascot 2020.

Hampton Court Stakes
Group 3 | Class 1 | 3YO only
Winner £35,520
1m 1f 212y

Last year’s race

Winner: Sangarius
Jockey: L Dettori
Trainer: Sir Michael Stoute
Owner: Mr K Abdullah
Age: 3 Weight: 9st 0lbs
Starting Price: 13/2
Season Form Figures: 30
Previous Best: 2nd – Queen Anne Stakes (Group 1), Royal Ascot, June 2018

Taking place before the Derby this season, this Group 3 over 1m2f for 3yos can now be considered to be a trial for that classic. Not that it is relevant this season but two of the last three winners contested a Derby as Hunting Horn finished sixth in the Prix du Jockey-Club and Benbatl ran fifth in the Derby at Epsom. The 2011 winner, Pisco Sour, also contested the Derby.

Previously run over 1m4f and also known as the Tercentenary Stakes for a few years, the Hampton Court was upgraded from Listed status to Group 3 eight years ago having been a 1m2f handicap since 2000 so only patterns from the turn of the century are of interest from which point all nine fillies to run have yet to get seriously competitive.

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Of the 19 penalised horses to have run since 2000, only Afsare has won and just one other made the frame. Afsare justified 9/4 favouritism on that occasion and this has been a race where the market leaders have come to the fore as 14 of the last 16 winners could be found in the first four in the betting. In fact last season’s first three in the market occupied the first three positions, though in reverse order to what the betting suggested.

A contest chock full of progressive horses mainly consisting from the top stables, of the 20 winners this century, nine had been contesting and getting beaten in Group races (five of which in the Dante), five others contested a handicap on their last start (two of the last five winners won the London Gold Cup at Newbury) with another three running in a maiden last time out.

Hawkbill led home a Godolphin 1-2 four years ago and then their Benbatl took the spoils in 2017. Aidan O’Brien has gone one better winning it on three occasions as has Sir Michael Stoute (in the last 11 years) after his Sangarius took the honours last season.

At a glance summary
POSITIVES
Likely to start in the first four in the betting
Owned by Godolphin
Trained by Aidan O’Brien or Sir Michael Stoute
NEGATIVES
Finished unplaced last time out (unless in a Group 1 race)
Fillies

King George V Stakes Handicap
Class 2 | 3YO only
Winner £38,814
1m 3f 211y

Last year’s race

Winner: South Pacific
Jockey: J A Heffernan
Trainer: A P O'Brien
Owner: Mr D Smith, Mrs J Magnier, Mr M Tabor
Age: 3 Weight: 8st 9lbs
Starting Price: 22/1
Season Form Figures: B12
Previous Best: 2nd - Rated Race, Naas (May 2019)

A handicap for three-year-olds over 1m4f, maybe this year’s handicap could even produce a Derby candidate taking place before the Derby this season? Aidan O’Brien might be eyeing it up as such after his 1-2-3 last season. A nice way for him to break his duck in the race!

However, it is Mark Johnston that leads the way with six successes and he has also supplied five close-up placed runners. He likes to come at this multiple-handed whereas Sir Michael Stoute has had far fewer runners so his record of four victories in the last 20 years including a 1-2 in 2004 is arguably even more noteworthy.

John Gosden also commands respect as from his last 19 runners stretching back to 1993, he has notched up two winners, a second and three thirds. Roger Charlton’s contenders also deserve a second look as his Atty Persse in 2017 added to the victory of Source Of Light in 1992 and in between three of his other six runners made the frame. Godolphin owned the 1-2 in 2017.

With 17 of the last 27 winners failing to win as a two-year-old, we should be looking towards the later-developing types. The more lightly-raced the individual, the more interested we should be and also respect the value of a good run last time out as 29 of the last 31 winners either won or finished placed on their most recent start. Five of the last 14 winners had won a handicap at Sandown.

Also, don’t be put off by maidens. The 66/1 winner, Cosmic Sun, 11 years ago was a maiden as was Heron Bay when scoring on his handicap debut in 2007 after three defeats in maidens whilst the 1999 winner, Elmutabaki, was beaten in four maidens before winning on his first start in a handicap.
Favourites didn't have an especially good record up until Colony’s success 12 years ago with just one obliging in between when Carlingford won in 1989 but Brown Panther justified 4/1 favouritism in style in 2011 winning by six lengths and it was the 4/1 joint-favourites, Elite Army and Windshear, who fought out the finish six years ago.

At a glance summary
POSITIVES
A maiden at the start of the campaign (or even heading into the race)
The more lightly-raced the better
Won a Sandown handicap
Trained by Sir Michael Stoute, Mark Johnston, John Gosden or Roger Charlton
Likely to start between 13/2 and 14/1
NEGATIVES
Finished outside the first three last time out

Prince Of Wales's Stakes
Group 1 | British Champions Series | Class 1 | 4YO plus
Winner £148,000
1m 1f 212y

Last year’s race

Winner: Crystal Ocean
Jockey: L Dettori
Trainer: Sir Michael Stoute
Owner: Sir Evelyn De Rothschild
Age: 5 Weight: 9st 0lbs
Starting Price: 3/1
Season Form Figures: 11
Previous Best: 2nd – King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes (Group 1), Ascot (July 2018)

It used to be a case of concentrating on proven Group 1 winners but Byword, Free Eagle, My Dream Boat and Poet’s Word were all winning at the highest level for the first time when successful here in fairly recent seasons.

However, although we have had four recent odds-on favs beaten (So You Think, Treve, A Shin Hikari and Cracksman) only one winner has started at longer odds than 8/1 since the upgrade to Group 1 status in 2000. Over a longer period of time, only four of the last 33 winners did not start in the first four in the betting.

Ouija Board and The Fugue have won this race for fillies since the upgrade but Magical found just the strong-staying 1m4f top-notcher, Crystal Ocean, too good on soft ground trying to emulate them last season and she could be back in an attempt to go one place better having since won the Irish Champion Stakes and Champion Stakes at Newmarket. Aidan O Brien has won the race on three occasions and also has last season’s Juddmonte International winner, Japan, as an option.

With regards to recent form, 16 of the last 23 winners won last time out and three winners failed to make the first three on their previous outing in the same time span. It can often be productive to note last season’s Prince of Wales’s Stakes as six of the last 16 winners were beaten in this race 12 months ago.

With regards to key races run during the current campaign, the Prix Ganay and Tattersalls Gold Cup stood out but the French Group 1 race has this season been moved to the weekend before Royal Ascot and the Group 1 at The Curragh has now been moved to July and also opened up to three-year-olds. The French, and Andre Fabre in particular, have a decent record of late winning three times in the last 13 years courtesy of Manduro, Vision D’Etait and Byword but their best older middle-distance horse, Sottsass, looks all set to contest the Prix Ganay instead.

Godolphin used to run their best 1m2f horse in this race but, following three wins on the spin between 2000-2002, they have struggled in this race. Their Rewilding was successful nine years ago when turning over the long odds-on So You Think but other than that, they have failed to land a blow recently. Ghaiyyath is race fit having won the Coronation Cup at Newmarket and could be their leading hope this year.

Addeybb is also race-fit as William Haggas bagged two 1m2f Group 1s with him in Australia in March and April. The travelling aside, they would be equivalent of Group 3s over here and last season’s Wolferton winner at this meeting and runner-up to Magical in the Champion Stakes has shown a marked preference for soft ground, which he got at this meeting last year.

At a glance summary
POSITIVES
Winner last time out
Contested last season’s renewal
Trained in France
NEGATIVES
Yet to win a Group/Grade 1 race
Unplaced last time out
Likely to start bigger than 8/1
Odds-on shots have a poor record

Royal Hunt Cup
Heritage Handicap | Class 2 | 3YO plus
Winner £48,517
1m

Last year’s race

Winner: Afaak
Jockey: Jim Crowley
Trainer: C Hills
Owner: Mr Hamdan Al Maktoum
Age: 5 Weight: 9st 3lbs
Starting Price: 20/1
Season Form Figures: Seasonal debut
Previous Best: 2nd – Royal Hunt Cup (Heritage Handicap), Royal Ascot (June 2018)

Four-year-olds realised a 1-2-3-4-5-6 in both 2016 and 2017 plus a 1-2-4 in 2018 so that seems to be as good a statistical starting point as any. Four and five-year-olds make up the lion's share of runners (usually around 75%) but given that they have won 29 of the last 34 runnings, they have been over-performing so I am more than happy to overlook any horse aged six and upwards.

It was a five-year-old that proved successful last season however as Afaak took the spoils on his seasonal debut off the same handicap mark of 103 off which he finished runner-up in the previous year’s race. Previous straight-course form at Ascot has proved to be an important factor in recent times, If successful again this season, he will become only the second horse to win the Hunt Cup twice after Master Vote in 1947/48. Clon Coulis is also of interest if returning having only been beaten a nose into second after meeting trouble in running. The Victoria Cup at the May Meeting has provided an ideal springboard for eight of the last 25 Hunt Cups but the race has not be restaged since it was abandoned.

The Britannia Handicap at the previous season’s Royal Ascot also used to be a significant guide but not so much of late though Zhui Feng was unplaced in that three-year-olds handicap in 2016 before winning the 2017 Royal Hunt Cup. The 2013 Hunt Cup winner, Belgian Bill, had finished placed in the Britannia two years earlier.

Outside of Ascot form, the Lincoln remains of interest with four of the last 18 winners having contested the season's traditional first big betting race of the season, though only one of that successful quartet ran into a place at Doncaster, but that handicap has also not been restaged since its abandonment. Neither has the Whitsun Cup from which two of the last two Hunt Cup winners ran creditably in.

Although only one of the last ten winners started at single-figure odds, overall the Royal Hunt Cup has been a pretty good handicap for punters with 12 winners in the last 27 years being sent off in the first four in the betting. No mean feat for almost 50% of winners in that long period of time to be one of the four shortest-priced fancies given that around 30 runners face the starter. Given those SP stats it is no surprise that 15 of the last 21 winners won or finished second earlier in the campaign.

Although Sir Michael Stoute and the now-retired Luca Cumani have won this race in the past, it should also be noted that they have saddled nine losing favourites between them in the last 17 years. We often have a Newmarket-trained favourite but, although the record of the front four in the betting is good, only one market leader has won since 1996. James Fanshawe is a trainer to note on the straight-course races at Royal Ascot and his record in this race passes the closest scrutiny having won it twice and he has had five other runners since the turn of the century also make the frame.

As far as weight carried is concerned, a u-turn has occurred in the last decade with regards horses saddled with under or over 9st. Going with the ‘unders’ was a must up until 2008 as just two winners since 1989 carried more than 9st to victory but ten of the last 13 winners carried 9st+, though that is now reflective of the fact more horses have carried over 9st than otherwise in recent years.

With regards to the draw, what happens earlier in the week is often the best guide with regards to the straight course . . . until they water that is. The field size being cut from 30+ runners to 24 this year to help with social distancing could make it less of a factor.

Two of the last 12 winners were wearing blinkers for the first time.

At a glance summary
POSITIVES
Previous quality straight-track Ascot form
Four-year-olds
Carrying over 9st+
Respect James Fanshawe
First four in the market
NEGATIVES
Aged 6+Trained by Sir Michael Stoute