Royal Ascot Stats Guide: Friday, June 19, 2020

No one knows more about the crucial trends behind the races at Royal Ascot than Paul Jones, is compiling comprehensive Stats Guides for over 30 races at Royal Ascot 2020.

Hardwicke Stakes
Group 2 | Class 1 | 4YO plus
Winner £74,000
1m 3f 211y

Last year’s race

Winner: Defoe
Jockey: Andrea Atzeni
Trainer: R Varian
Owner: Sheikh Mohammed Obaid Al Maktoum
Age: 5 Weight: 9st 1lbs
Starting Price: 11/4
Season Form Figures: 421
Previous Best: 1st – Coronation Cup (Group 1), Epsom (May 2019)

When successful aged five last season, Defoe ended the long sequence of winning four-year-olds that has stretched out to 11 runnings and at the same time became the fifth successful favourite in the last nine years. Purposely given the second half of last season off in order that he could be primed for the Dubai Sheema Classic in March which was abandoned, he could return to defend his title at the age of six. Jupiter Island is the only winner over the age of five since 1905.

Sir Michael Stoute will doubtless have a contender as he goes in search of Hardwicke Stakes victory number 12 believe it or not. Eight of those successes have been achieved going back to 2006.

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Other trainers to note are Mark Johnston (Elarqam looks an interesting project over 1m4f this season) and Aidan O’Brien with four and three winners respectively. O’Brien’s three winners have been achieved in the last 11 years whereas MJ’s quartet of successes were some time ago now between 1999-2005.

The Group 1 penalty for the Hardwicke Stakes was dispensed with seven years ago and Defoe’s connections took advantage of that last season after winning the Coronation Cup on his previous start. Prior to that only Assatis in 1990 was a former Group 1 winner in over a quarter of a century. As for Group 2 or Group 3 winners yet to win at the highest level, they have been responsible for 22 of the last 25 winners and 12 of the last 18 winners had won a Group race earlier in the season.

The Coronation Cup has been the best guide signposting nine of the last 22 winners, eight of which finished between third and sixth. The John Porter winner also has a fair record but that race was lost back in April as was the Huxley Stakes at Chester which has also been a good guide.

Trip-wise, only Indian Creek and Await The Dawn in the last 24 years were recording their first success over at least 1m4f so don’t look to contenders primarily known as being 1m2f horses as this 1m4f takes some getting - stick to proven 1m4f horses. All but two of the last 19 winners had placed at worst in a Group race earlier in the season, the omissions being Sea Moon who won a Listed race and Idaho who ran as if he badly needed his seasonal return in the Coronation Cup.

Stanerra back in 1983 was the last successful filly/mare and was winning here just three days after also taking the Prince of Wales’s Stakes, though very few fillies/mares have tried recently.

At a glance summary
POSITIVES
Four-year-olds
Won a Group race earlier in the season
Trained by Sir Michael Stoute, Mark Johnston, or Aidan O’Brien
Ran in the Coronation Cup (notably if finished between third-sixth)
NEGATIVES
Aged 6+
Failed to win a Group 2 or Group 3 race
Failed to have won over at least 1m4f

Commonwealth Cup
Group 1 | British Champions Series | Class 1 | 3YO only
Winner £148,000
6f

Last year’s race

Winner: Advertise
Jockey: L Dettori
Trainer: M Meade
Owner: Phoenix Thoroughbred Limited 1
Age: 3 Weight: 9st 3lbs
Starting Price: 8/1
Season Form Figures: 0
Previous Best: 1st – Keeneland Phoenix Stakes (Group 1) Curragh (August 2018)

This will be the sixth edition of this Grade 1 race over 6f for three-year-olds which has proved to be such a hit, so race trends will take a good few years to bed in, hence the lack of pointers in the final summary, especially with the key guide of the Sandy Lane being lost this year.

Proven quality has paid so far with four of the five winners officially rated between 117-119 beforehand an all five winners had run earlier in the season (three of them had run twice) though the latter stat is far less relevant this year.

In the first year it was won by the Champion Sprinter, Muhaarar, beating the subsequent July Cup winner, Limato, into second place. Pretty good then.

The 2016 running wasn’t quite as high quality but the winner, Quiet Reflection, went on to add the Group 1 Haydock Park Sprint and had previously won the Sandy Lane which has since featured another Commonwealth Cup winner, second and third. Unfortunately that abandoned trial has not been restaged this year.

The 2017 running was considered by many to be the race of the meeting heading into Royal Ascot and it was Caravaggio that came out on top beating Harry Angel and Blue Point in a high-class renewal. The runner-up and third had previously met in the Pavilion Stakes at the Ascot April Meeting, a trial that featured the Commonwealth Cup winner, Eqtidaar, a year later who was second in that contest. This seasons’ running was saved and transferred to Newcastle and was won by Dubai Station who beat an unlucky-in running Malotru with Dream Shot back in third.

Last season’s Commonwealth Cup witnessed the return to form of Advertise in first-time blinkers having been a Group 1 winner at two but finished last in the 2000 Guineas. Returning to sprinting proved to be key as he also went on to win the Prix Maurice de Gheest and finish second in the July Cup to Ten Sovereigns, who was only fourth ere as the Evens favourite after he was fifth in the 2000 Guineas. Mum’s Tipple could be a Guineas also-ran to drop back to 6f here.

At a glance summary
POSITIVES
Contested the Pavilion Stakes
Officially rated 117+
NEGATIVES
None

Queen's Vase
Group 2 | Class 1 | 3YO only
Winner £65,120
1m 6f 34y

Last year’s race

Winner: Dashing Willoughby
Jockey: Oisin Murphy
Trainer: A M Balding
Owner: Mick And Janice Mariscotti
Age: 3 Weight: 9st 0lbs
Starting Price: 6/1
Season Form Figures: 23
Previous Best: 3rd – Chester Vase Stakes (Group 3), Chester (May 2019)

Upgraded to a Group 2 status and decreased in distance down to 1m6f in 2017 in an attempt to breathe new life into this division, that move worked perfectly with the first two winners being the subsequent dual Ascot Gold Cup hero, Stradivarius, and the subsequent St Leger winner, Kew Gardens.

Dashing Willoughby was the third winner since the changes last year. It had also seemed to be doing okay to me beforehand though having recently featured three other St Leger and two Gold Cup winners ahead of that change so it is certainly a race to take note of contenders going forward. Now that the race takes place over 1m6f, the draw becomes more important as there is a very short run indeed to the first bend. Maybe no surprise therefore that in the first running over the shortened trip that five of the first six horses were drawn in single figures and the best finishing position that any of the five highest-drawn horses could attain the following was fifth. The effect of the draw wasn’t so pronounced last year but it took place on the softest ground of the meeting giving more time for jockeys to find a position.

It has been the Aidan O’Brien, Mark Johnston and Sir Michael Stoute show since the turn of the century carving up 16 of the 20 runnings between them.

Two years ago it was an O’Brien 1-2-3 and, with a better draw, his Barbados (from 12 of 13) may well have won last year rather than beaten half a length. Saeed bin Suroor (x2), John Gosden and Andrew Balding are the only other trainers to have got their names on the winners’ board in the last two decades.

Having trained seven of the last 19 winners, we wait to see what Johnston has up his sleeve but it has been O’Brien dominating of late and he is chasing a sixth win in the last eight years (and an eighth in 14). The Aga Khan and Sir Michael Stoute successfully combined with Maridpour (1998) and Dalampour (2000) plus Stoute has also won two of the last 12 runnings with Patkai and Estimate for different owners. Also take note that Sheikh Mohammed has won six Queen’s Vase's since 1990, four in his maroon-and-white colours and two in the Godolphin blue.

Also note that the Queen’s Vase has been a mighty good race for followers of the market with 22 of the last 25 winners starting in the first four in the betting and just one winner during that time period started at any bigger than 11/1. In fact, the favourite has obliged on eight occasions in the last 20 years.

Twelve of the last 20 winners had recorded a victory earlier in the campaign so it is a little surprising that 11 of the last 18 winners were beaten last time out. That said, 11 of the last 16 winners to beaten on their most recent start were contesting Group and Listed races in defeat.

Of winners since 1992, just four were sired by a stallion with a Stamina Index of less than ten furlongs. These SI stats aren’t surprising given that this a stern test of stamina for 3yos in June (even over 1m6f now rather than 2m) so horses with plenty of staying power in their pedigree have unsurprisingly come to the fore.

The most surprising statistic with regards to winners since 1996 was that as many as seven were unraced at two. However, that trend is deceiving as the last 11 winners raced as juveniles and now it is a Group 2, that will be even harder to overturn.

At a glance summary
POSITIVES
Start in the first four in the betting
Trained by Aidan O'Brien, Mark Johnston, or Sir Michael Stoute
Beaten in a Group or Listed race last time out
Owned by Godolphin
A low draw (though off just two three evidence since run over 1m6f)
NEGATIVES
By a sire with a Stallion Index of under 10f

Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes Handicap
Class 2 | 3YO plus
Winner £38,814
1m 3f 211y

Last year’s race

Winner: Baghdad
Jockey: R L Moore
Trainer: M Johnston
Owner: Mr Mohammed Bin Hamad Khalifa Al Attiy
Age: 4 Weight: 9st 8lbs
Starting Price: 7/2
Season Form Figures: 31
Previous Best: 1st – Class 2 Handicap, Newmarket (May 2019)

A great handicap for the market leaders last season with the 1-2-3-4 being the quartet that headed the market. Up until 2006, the Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes had been a punter’s handicap with 14 consecutive winners going the way of a contender from the front six in the betting but it had got trickier lately with five of the last 12winners were sent off at 12/1+, though four favourites have also won in that time span. Especially note those hunting up the market leader, notably the second, third and fourth favourites that have won 13 of the last 26 runnings.

Our ideal contender will be a four or five-year-old arriving here off the back of a victory and drawn in double figures - three strong trends for this handicap over 1m4f for older horses. Baghdad hit all the square on the head last season when justifying favouritism giving Mark Johnston a fourth win in this race.

Horses drawn wider in double-figure stalls have won all nine runnings since the switch of stall numbers (and the 1-2-3 last season), so don’t be put off arguments suggesting the higher-drawn horses are up against it over this 1m4f trip. In fact, the 2017 1-2-4 were drawn 19, 18, 17 a year after a 1-2-3 for runners drawn 19, 13 and 15. The four-year-old, Dash Of Spice, justified 7/2 favouritism from stall 14 in 2018.

Four-year-olds have historically fared best and filled seven of the first eight places last year but in 2017 Rare Rhythm led home a 1-2-3 for five-year-olds following on from a 1-2-3-4 for the same age group in 2016. Prior to that, four-year-olds supplied seven of the first eight places in 2015, the first eight horses home in 2014 and six of the first seven in 2013. What isn’t a great surprise is that horses aged 6+ have struggled with just two proving successful in the last 31 years.

Last-time-out winners hold the call having been responsible for 13 winners in the last 25 years which is an excellent return given they supply, on average, around 25% of the total runners. Given the handicap has become much more condensed of late, weight stats have started to become irrelevant in a race where it usually paid to oppose those towards the lower end of the handicap.

Sir Michael Stoute has saddled six winners and three runners-up from his last 18 runners and the majority view was that his Kings Fete (close-up third) would have won in 2016 but for being squeezed up.

At a glance summary
POSITIVES
Drawn 10+Last-time-out winners
The second, third and fourth favourites
Trained by Sir Michael Stoute, Mark Johnston, or John Oxx
NEGATIVES
Aged six or older