Royal Ascot: The Groundwork - Tuesday

Short-cut the form study! Kevin Blake has done the hard work for you and presents his cheat-sheet for three races at Royal Ascot on Tuesday.

The process behind finding the winner of a race can be as long or as short as one wishes to make it. It can be as simple as eeny, meeny, miny, moe or as complicated as an hours-long dive into every conceivable variable in search of relevant information.

For me, it tends to veer more towards the latter than the former. The process is ever evolving, but for the last number of years it has started with a methodology that I refer to as groundwork. This involves attempting to establish what the shape of the race is likely to be in terms of the pace and draw. This is absolutely crucial information, as having a feel for how the race is likely to pan out gives ones a much better idea of what type of horse is likely to be favoured by the run of the race. It can be particularly valuable in the case of handicaps, as given that ability is theoretically balanced out by the weights, those that get the run of the race regularly overperform and vice versa.

To give a simple example, there might be a hold-up horse in a race that you think is well handicapped. However, if the groundwork for the race reveals that the early pace is likely to be steady making it difficult for hold-up horses, that should have a major impact on how you view that horse’s chance.

Another important element of groundwork is assessing trainer form. This tends to be assessed using some very blunt instruments such as strike rates, but I use the average of the percentage of rivals beaten squared. This is sourced using Proform and represents a more powerful measure of what we are seeking to assess.

In common with any other sort of pre-race analysis, estimating the pace of a race, the impact of the draw or trainer based on past evidence doesn’t always work out as hoped. Horses can end up being ridden differently than anticipated either by design or not, draw analysis can be turned on its head by jockeys taking unexpected routes and trainer form can swing around in a relatively short period of time. Even considering that, I have found that the groundwork process to be the best starting point in the search for winners.

So, with that in mind, I am going to show my groundwork for a selected group of races to attheraces.com for all five days of Royal Ascot. I’ll put in the hard yards so that you don’t have to and with a bit of luck, it will prove to be a help to you in the search of winners.

Here is my groundwork for Tuesday:

14.30 QUEEN ANNE STAKES (GROUP 1) (1m)

Pace: Pogo (stall 6) made the running a few times last season and has raced prominently in his two starts this season. Order Of Australia (7) and Prince Eiji (10) like to race prominently. Regal Reality (3) made the running on one occasion last season, but ran below form that day and has seemed better suited by being ridden with a bit more restraint.

The stalls are in the centre of the straight track and it will be a major surprise if the runners don’t race down the middle part of the track.

The story is this pace map is clear and that is there is a distinct possibility that this race will be run at a steady pace. There isn’t a regular front runner in the field and those that have pushed forward on rare occasions in the past are unlikely to be interested in going any faster than they need to.

This pace map becomes even more fascinating when one considers that the short-priced favourite Palace Pier (11) is a hold-up horse that habitually misses the kick by a few lengths. Given he is drawn on a wing in the widest stall which increases the likelihood of a slow start, there must be a strong possibility that the favourite could end up in a poor position off a steady pace. He may well be that much better than his rivals that he’ll be able to overcome such a positional disadvantage, but it could hardly be considered ideal for his chance.

Trainer Form: Amongst those that have had a sample of at least 30 runners in the last four weeks at the time of writing (Sunday afternoon), here is the table ordered in sequence of those operating with the highest average percentage of rivals beaten squared in the last four weeks at the time of writing (Sunday afternoon). For context, the average PRB squared figure amongst all trainers with 25 or more runners in the last four weeks is 37.2%.

15.40 KING'S STAND STAKES (GROUP 1) (5f)

Pace: Maven (stall 6) is a sharp starter that regularly makes the running. Que Amoro (4) and Ornate (11) are regular front runners. Glamorous Anna (2) is a regular front runner, albeit at a lower level. Winter Power (7) has improved in her last two starts when making the running. Battaash (10) has made all to win in the past, but in more recent years has been content to sit prominently in the first half of his races if a rival is fast enough to take him along. Oxted (14) likes to race prominently over six furlongs, but drops to five furlongs here and might not be quite as forward. Liberty Beach (10) made all to win last time, but usually races just prominently. King’s Lynn (16) has made the running a couple of times, but has tended to race prominently in the main.

In common with the Queen Anne, it will be a major surprise if the field doesn’t race down the middle of the track.

Once again, the story of this pace map couldn’t be clearer. This race is absolutely chock-full of early pace with the majority of it being in the bottom half of the draw. This will be bad news for any of the potential pace pushers that were hoping to be left alone on the front end, as the competition on the pace is likely to be fierce. However, it will be music to the ears of supporters of hold-up horses, as a strong pace will play to their strengths and make it more likely that the leaders will come back to them.

The likely strong early pace will be a contrast to last year’s renewal in which the pace wasn’t as brisk as it often is and allowed Battaash to make much of his own running within his comfort zone. This was illustrated by the race finishing speed of 103.6% compared to 101.1% and 100.9% when Blue Point outstayed him late on in the previous two renewals of the race.

Given that Battaash is an out-and-out five-furlong specialist that has proved vulnerable up the finishing climb at Ascot in years past, the key to victory for him will be Jim Crowley’s ability to get him to relax as best he can in the first half of the race in the face of a strong pace. With this being his first run of the season, the danger of Battaash being fresher than ideal and over-exerting himself early are clear and that won’t help Crowley’s task.

Trainer Form: Amongst those that have had a sample of at least 30 runners in the last four weeks at the time of writing (Sunday afternoon), here is the table ordered in sequence of those operating with the highest average percentage of rivals beaten squared in the last four weeks at the time of writing (Sunday afternoon). For context, the average PRB squared figure amongst all trainers with 25 or more runners in the last four weeks is 37.2%.

17.00 ASCOT STAKES (2m 3f 210y)

Pace: Rochester House (stall 17) has often helped push the pace and is a proven stayer at this trip, though he raced off the pace from a similarly wide draw in this race last year. Mancini (18) has made the running a couple of times in the last year and raced prominently in the most recent renewal of this race. Golden Rules (11) has helped push the pace a couple of times, including on his latest start over a mile-and-three-quarters, but steps up in trip and class here so might not be as forward. Rayapour (9) has raced prominently both on his hurdling debut last time and for his previous connections on the Flat, but he steps up in trip in first-time cheekpieces here and might not be as forward.

In short, there doesn’t appear to be a great amount of solid pace on paper in this race. That will be good news for those that can establish prominent early positions, but will make it tougher for those that are held up off the pace.

Draw: This is a very interesting subject. It wouldn’t be unreasonable to assume that low draws would be favoured in a race of this length with so much turning to be done. However, that isn’t necessarily the case when dealing with the round track at Ascot. While it isn’t as pronounced over two-and-a-half miles as at shorter trips, higher draws very much fight their corner over this course and distance. In the last 22 renewals of Ascot Stakes, there have been 242 runners drawn 11 or lower and 248 drawn 12 or higher. The latter group produced eight of the 22 winners and 43 of the 88 that finished in the first four home. Thus, don’t be at all discouraged if your fancy has a high draw. Trainer Form: Amongst those that have had a sample of at least 30 runners in the last four weeks at the time of writing (Sunday afternoon), here is the table ordered in sequence of those operating with the highest average percentage of rivals beaten squared in the last four weeks at the time of writing (Sunday afternoon). For context, the average PRB squared figure amongst all trainers with 25 or more runners in the last four weeks is 37.2%.