Royal Ascot: Favorites could dominate in two Group 1 races

Favorites won none of the four Group 1 races on Tuesday and Wednesday at Royal Ascot and true longshots captured three of those contests. Still, bettors are going to latch strongly onto the chalk in the pair of Group 1s on the Friday program at Royal Ascot.

Little Big Bear is the big favorite for the Group 1, $637,000 Commonwealth Cup while the filly Tahiyra as of Wednesday was an even shorter price for the Group 1, $318,000 Coronation Stakes.

Both races are restricted to 3-year-olds, the Commonwealth a straight six-furlong sprint, the Coronation a one-turn mile open only to fillies. The Commonwealth goes as the second of seven races on the card, post time is scheduled for 10:05 a.m. Eastern, with the Coronation set for 11:20. The Ascot course on Wednesday was good, good-to-soft in places, and no real chance of rain was forecast through Friday’s action.

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That’s good news for Little Big Bear, far from the only horse to struggle through a wet, deep, laboring Newmarket course in the 2000 Guineas last month. Never certain to stay the Guineas testing mile under the best of circumstances, Little Big Bear floundered from the start and crossed the wire last of 14. Trainer Aidan O’Brien cut Europe’s best 2-year-old sprinter of 2022 back to six furlongs and found better going at Haydock Park, where Little Big Bear was an eased-down 1 1/4-length winner of the Group 2 Sandy Lane Stakes on May 22. The Commonwealth’s six furlongs should pose no issue for the massive Little Big Bear, the mount of Ryan Moore.

Sakheer and Lezoo, however, have strong merits themselves, and they, too, performed well below their best over the soft Newmarket course on Guineas weekend. Sakheer finished seventh in the 2000 Guineas, his first start at 3 after he ended his 2-year-old campaign winning the Group 2 Mill Reef over six furlongs at Newbury while showing push-button acceleration. Lezoo, a filly, finished eighth of 20 in the 1000 Guineas, a considerable step down from her victory last fall in the Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes, a six-furlong dash where she beat Meditate, subsequent winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf, and Mawj, who captured the 1000 Guineas.

Meditate sees action in the Coronation, where she’s the distant second choice behind Tahiyra, the latter a possible star in the division. Trained by Dermot Weld for the Aga Khan, Tahiyra went 2 for 2 at 2, beating Meditate by more than two lengths in the Group 1 Moyglare Stud Stakes. A terrible start in the 1000 Guineas got her beat a half-length by Mawj, and Tahiyra showed she handles good ground with an easy win over Meditate in the Irish 1000 Guineas on May 28. She’ll be an odds-on favorite under Chris Hayes.

Friday’s other important race is the Group 2 King Edward VII Stakes for 3-year-olds over 1 1/2 miles. Firmer footing might not be ideal for Arrest, a modest 10th over good-to-firm ground in the English Derby following three strong performances on softer turf. Just the opposite holds for favored King of Steel, uncompetitive on heavy ground last fall in the Group 1 Vertem Futurity Trophy but an excellent second behind Auguste Rodin in the June 3 Derby.

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