By Paul Jones Tuesday, June 16 Queen Anne Stakes  In the Queen Anne we have the strongest trends race of the 35 to take place at Royal Ascot to kick off the five-day extravaganza.  Sixteen of the last 23 winners had already struck at Group 1 level and it is the Lockinge Stakes that has been the key guide having featured 25 Queen Anne winners since 1980 including Ribchester, Palace Pier and Baaeed who completed the double in three of the last nine seasons.  Being the first domestic Group 1 of the season for older horses that takes place over a mile, the Lockinge is the natural starting point. However, defeated horses at Newbury actually have a better winning record than the winner claiming 16 of the last 30 runnings but of course there are more beaten horses than just the winner. Notable Speech, with the benefit of a run behind him earlier in the season when an unfortunate loser in America, ran out an impressive winner of the Lockinge last month after being very well backed striking by 2l over the seasonal debutant, More Thunder, who stayed on in eye-catching fashion to finish second in a deep-looking renewal (Zeus Olympios, Dancing Gemini, The Lion In Winter, Damysus, Cicero’s Gift, Sahlan and Jonquil were behind, any of which could also rock up at Ascot) and the stiffer mile may be expected to suit him better. Notable Speech, on the other hand, has finished unplaced on both trips to Ascot including when a 2¼l fourth in last season’s Queen Anne won by course specialist, Docklands.  If successful, Notable Speech would be giving Godolphin their ninth Queen Anne success. They also have Opera Ballo in the mix after he impressed in victory in the bet365 Mile beating Field Of Gold and Zeus Olympios and then having not been declared on soft ground for the Prix Aga Khan IV. The Hannon stable took this Toronado, Paco Boy and Canford Cliffs and went so close with Rosallion last season but they look short of a top-class miler this season.  The Ballydoyle operation has had mixed fortunes in the Queen Anne as horses with more brilliance than Aidan O’Brien’s four winners (Ad Valorem, Haradasun, Declaration Of War and Circus Maximus) such as Hawk Wing, George Washington and Rip Van Winkle all even failed to place. The French have won on three occasions going back to 2005. Last season’s surprise Coronation Stakes winner at last season’s meeting on the round course, Cercene, is the shortest-priced filly or mare for this straight mile. The Queen Anne has not been a good race for the distaffs as the only two to win in the last 51 years were reigning Breeders’ Cup Mile winners; Goldikova and Tepin.  Four-year-olds have fared best winning 25 of the last 33 runnings. In 2019, Lord Glitters at the age of six became the oldest winner since 1976 and last season’s winner, Docklands, looks set to try and emulate him.   In very recent seasons the Paradise Stakes on Trials Day has been marketed as a Queen Anne trial despite its Listed status, but results show that this is now justified. For example, Docklands was second last year and then went one better at Royal Ascot and he also finished runner-up in both races in 2024. This season he instead kicked off by winning at Doncaster before sent to a Grade 1 in Hong Kong where he was beaten only ¾l. In addition, the winner in 2020 went on to be a big-priced third in the Queen Anne and the 2019 third, Accidental Agent, even went on to cause a 33/1 surprise in the Queen Anne after finishing sixth in the Lockinge in between. The Paradise Stakes winner that year, Century Dream, also ran very well in the Queen Anne only beaten ¾l into fourth and the 2022 third, Sir Busker, filled the same position in the Group 1 at the Royal Meeting. This season’s running was won by Jonquil before he ran down the field in the Lockinge. Ignoring the Covid year when Royal Ascot began just two weeks into the belated start to the season, only one seasonal debutant prior to Triple Time in 2023, who caused a 33/1 surprise, Toronado, has won since Allied Forces in 1997.   Positives: * Contested the Lockinge Stakes  * Four-year-olds * Owned by Godolphin Negatives: * Failed to have won a Group 1 race * Aged over five * Fillies/Mares (unless a Breeders’ Cup winner) * Seasonal debutantes King Charles III Stakes Formerly known as the King’s Stand, again we look set to have an international flavour with the Australian-trained pair of Overpass and Joliestar heading the ante-post betting.  The Aussies have plundered this Group 1 5f contest on six occasions going back to 2003 and during that time there were also international successes in 2013 and 2014 for Ireland (both by Sole Power), in 2017 when Lady Aurelia won for America, Little Bridge for Hong Kong in 2012 and even a Spanish-trained winner in 2008 when Equiano recorded his first of two successes in the race. There have also been three wins for France between 1997-2005. British-trained horses have fought back to win seven of the last 11 runnings having previously been up against it since the sprinting scene became more global and American Affair was giving Jim Goldie a very popular first Group 1 winner and Royal Ascot winner when successful last season in a career holding the licence for three decades. The last of 12 horses to win this race on two occasions was Blue Point in 2019, though three horses have managed to do going back to 2010 (Equiano and Sole Power being the others.  Asfoora won the 2024 edition when trained by Henry Dwyer representing Australia but last season’s Champion Sprinter after wins in the Nunthorpe and Abbaye is now trained by Lemos de Souza in Newmarket so had a different preparation. How much she would have enjoyed a British winter is up for debate and she has only beaten two rivals in her two prep races. Three of Australia’s six King Charles III winners (all since 2003) won the Black Caviar Lightning Stakes at Flemington in February (won this season by Tentyris) which is unlikely to have a representative this season. Overpass has not won since November 2024 and finished fourth behind Joliestar in a Grade 1 at Randwick in April off a 112 days’ break but it is he of the pair that has got closest to Ka Ying Rising (1½l) when they have taken on the world’s best sprinter, and some would say, best racehorse.   Given how outnumbered they are, fillies/mares have a decent strike rate winning seven of the last 32 runnings so that’s a tick in Joliestar and Asfoora’s box.  Age is not a critical factor with recent winners aged from three right through to seven in the last decade but, over a longer period of time, three-year-olds have a decent-enough strike rate winning, on average, twice a decade which may not sound exciting but they are always heavily outnumbered so do afford them respect. However, the Commonwealth Cup over 6f restricted to the classic generation is likely to take some contenders away from this 5f contest. The Temple Stakes won by Night Raider who was following up his success in the Palace House Stakes, has been the best guide featuring eight winners since 1990 so two ahead of the Prix du Gros-Chene with five winners in the last 30 years. Despite not being able to blast it from the front as usual after a slowish start, Karl Burke’s improved five-year-old stayed on strongly to win comfortably so the stiffer 5f at Ascot could bring around more improvement. Making all is not easy on the straight course so a similar running style as at Haydock could also benefit him.  Exactly half of the last 26 winners were also successful on their most recent outing, in fact, exactly two-thirds of the last 21 winners finished first or second last time out.  As you would expect for a competitive Group 1 sprint, pattern-race winners have come to the fore with 27 of the last 37 winners having already won at Group 1 or Group 2 level so no massive angle there. All but five of the last 26 winners had also won a Group race over the minimum trip of five furlongs (also to be expected) and all bar two of those last 24 winners had enjoyed the benefit of a run earlier in the season (still nothing to get particularly excited about).  Positives:  - Last-time-out winner  - Trained in Australia  - Contested the Temple Stakes  - A top-four finisher in the Prix du Gros-Chene  - Fillies/mares  - Previous winner of the race Negatives:  - Outside the first two last time out  - Failed to win a Group 1 or Group 2 race  - Failed to win a Group race over 5f St. James's Palace Stakes It looks like we will have ourselves a rematch between the 1-2 at Newmarket and maybe also a clash of all three major 2000 Guineas winners like last season with the Irish and French winners, Gstaad and Rayif, set to join the Newmarket hero, Bow Echo, which would make the St James’s Palace Stakes the race of the meeting for many. It usually pays to stick to the leading fancies for the St James’s Palace Stakes and, following the hugely-impressive success of Field Of Gold last season, 17 of the last 27 winners entered the race as a Classic winner. In fact, the last five winners had all won a Classic; Poetic Flare, Caroebus, Paddington, Rosallion and Field Of Gold. The last three winners were therefore following up their success in the Irish 2000 Guineas, the last two of which were going one place better at The Curragh than Newmarket and Gstaad has that exact same profile this year. However, he has 2¾l to find with Bow Echo who was one of the highest-rated winners of the 2000 Guineas over the last fifty-odd years given his devastating play with 10¾l back to the third, Distant Storm, who has since finished a 3l second to Gstaad in the Irish version. The arguments that Gstaad can bridge the gap are being based around varying degrees of fitness levels at Newmarket and also racing wide apart from each other. The general feeling was that Bow Echo was primed to the minute so is there any more to come and he had the ideal set up of a strong gallop, whereas Gstaad would improve for the outing so it’s game on. Regards rematches from the 2000 Guineas, this century we have had six form reversals from Newmarket; Azamour over Haafhd, Canford Cliffs over Makfi, Kingman over Night Of Thunder, Barney Roy over Churchill, Rosallion over Notable Speech and Field Of Gold over Ruling Court. We have also had four confirmations of form; Henrythenavigator over Ravens Pass, Frankel over Dubawi Gold, Dawn Approach over Toronado and Poetic Flare over Lucky Vega. As for the market as a guide, only Circus Maximus (10/1), who had previously failed to stay in the Derby when finishing sixth, has won at double-figure odds since 1992 when Brief Truce at 25/1 in first-time blinkers floored what was supposed to be the big head-to-head of Arazi and Rodrigo De Triano (both unplaced). Eleven of the last 18 winners were sent off favourite. The days of all three major Guineas winners taking each other on here diminished when the Prix du Jockey-Club was reduced to 1m2f so many winners of the Poulains (French 2000) now head there instead so the 2000 Guineas and Irish 2000 Guineas hold an even more significant edge over the French equivalent, with the Newmarket and Curragh Classics having highlighted 22 and 19 of the last 31 winners respectively. However, it looks Henri-Francis Graffard and Aga Khan Studs may run their French 2000 Guineas winner in the SJP which would even more spice to the race. In fact, an eye-catching 17 of the last 31 St James’s Palace Stakes winners contested both the 2000 Guineas and Irish 2000 Guineas so that’s a positive stat for the 1-2 at The Curragh, Gstaad and Distant Storm. The runner-up could take Gstaad on for third time this season for Godolphin who have won the SJP on four occasions but they have had also been represented by six losing Classic winners. The authoritative 2021 winner, Poetic Flare, actually contested all three Guineas’ underlining his toughness. The Gosden stable have won three of the last eight runnings, twice with horses that bypassed all the Guineas’ (Without Parole and Palace Pier) and they were only a neck away from making that four as King Of Comedy was only just denied in between those successes.  Aidan O’Brien has been the trainer to follow winning nine of the last 26 runnings and seven of his winners contested the Irish 2000 Guineas. Three of his dual Guineas winners went on to add this prize but his finest hour in this race was when saddling the 1-2-3 in 2007 and he has also had 13 horses placed in addition to his winners going back to 2002. His Gstaad won the Coventry Stakes at last year’s Royal Ascot. The relevance of highlighting that victory on this day 12 months ago is that Henrythenavigator, Canford Cliffs and Dawn Approach all won the Coventry Stakes in the last 16 years. In the biggest field of modern times, Most Improved won from stall 15 of 16 but it’s been a case of the lower, so nearer the rail, the better. Four of the last eight winners came from stalls 1-2. Winning form last time out is far from essential as 11 of the last 30 winners were beaten on their most recent start - three in the Derby. Only two of the last 13 winners had just one previous run this season. Positives: * Ran in both the 2000 Guineas and Irish 2000 Guineas * A Group 1 winner (especially if won a European Guineas) * The favourite * Trained by Aidan O’Brien (especially if contested the Irish 2000 Guineas) or John & Thady Gosden * Drawn low * Won last season’s Coventry Stakes  Negatives: * Yet to contest a Group 1 race unless trained by John & Thady Gosden * Failed to finish in the first four in any form of 2000 Guineas unless trained by John & Thady Gosden * Less than two starts this season Wednesday, June 17 Prince of Wales's Stakes It used to be a case of concentrating on proven Group 1 winners but Byword, Free Eagle, My Dream Boat, Crystal Ocean, Poet’s Word and the Gosden-trained trio of Lord North, Mosthadaf and Ombudsman were all winning at the highest level for the first time when successful here going back to 2010.  This season’s renewal is building towards being a belter potentially featuring one of either the Arc winner who is 2-2 in Group since, Daryz, or Calandagan who would be chasing a sixth consecutive Group 1 victory for Aga Khan Studs, the reigning title holder, Ombudsman, who has since added the Juddmonte International, last season’s highest-rated filly Minnie Hauk who won four Oaks’ before being touched off in the Arc and the recent Tattersalls Gold Cup winner, Almaqam, so it may be a case of only Group 1 winners can apply. Two years ago, Auguste Rodin was giving Aidan O Brien a fifth success following Duke Of Marmalade, So You Think (who made up for his defeat at odds of 4/11 the previous year), Highland Reel and Love. It could well be that Minnie Hauk will be his number one hope this season despite her disappointing effort in the Tattersalls Gold Cup, a run that her trainer has told punters to put a line through blaming the tempo of the race as they walked through the middle part so she had no chance being a 1m4f filly. Can we infer from that a higher-class pacemaker will be utilised whilst she remains over 1m2f for the time being? The POW is half a furlong shorter than the Tattersalls Gold Cup where Almaqam led home a British-trained 1-2-3 ahead of Bay City Roller and Saddaad. We potentially have a particularly strong bunch of five-year-olds in this season’s race with Almaqam, Ombudsman, Calandagan, Kalpana, See The Fire and Sosie all in the mix to run. Anmaat finished second as a seven-year-old last season so the oldest winner remains at six (Muhtarram and So You Think) since it became a graded race in 1971.  Minnie Hauk, Kalpana and See The Fire would be attempting to become the fourth filly/mare to win after Ouija Board, The Fugue and Love since the upgrade if any are declared. With regards to key races run during the current campaign, nothing stands out particularly with the Prix Ganay, won by the Arc hero, Daryz, who then added the Prix Aga Khan IV, and the Tattersalls Gold Cup having fared best. However, it can often be productive to note last season’s Prince of Wales’s Stakes as six of the last 22 winners were beaten in this race 12 months ago. Ombudsman had See Of Fire back in third last season when giving John Gosden his fourth winner in the last 13 runnings adding to the successes of The Fugue, Lord North and Mostahdaf. The French-trained pair of Zarakem and Horizon Dore filled the places two years ago behind Auguste Rodin. The French won three runnings between 2007-2010 but none since. It appears very likely that either Daryz or Calandagan, who has won a King Edward VII, ‘King George’ and Champion Stakes at Ascot, will represent the Graffard stable. Godolphin used to run their best 1m2f horse in this race but, following three wins on the spin between 2000-2002, they struggled in this race with just one more success until Ombudsman struck last season.  Two of the last 11 POW winners were having their first run of the season but only Cercene of the entries has yet to run so far this campaign. With regards to recent form, 18 of the last 29 winners won last time out and four winners failed to make the first three on their previous outing in the same time span.  Although we have had five recent odds-on favs beaten (So You Think, Treve, A Shin Hikari, Cracksman and Bay Bridge) in that same time frame, only one winner has started at longer odds than 10/1 since the upgrade to Group 1 status in 2000. Over a longer period of time, only six of the last 36 winners did not start in the first four in the betting.  Positives: * Trained by John & Thady Gosden * Winner last time out * Contested last season’s renewal Negatives: * Aged 6+ * Unplaced last time out * Likely to start bigger than 8/1 * Odds-on favourites have a poor record Thursday, June 18 Gold Cup After Trawlerman’s runaway success last season, Godolphin have now won six Gold Cups going back to 1996 and Team Gosden as many as five of the last eight runnings. However, will their eight-year-old be ready in time to try and defend his title is the burning question in the lead up to this season’s race having been ridden to outstay his rivals last year which saw him record a winning margin of 7l over Illinois. We have had many dual Gold Cup winners plus Yeats won it on four successive occasions and Stradivarius and Sagaro three times running. In fact, 23 horses have won the Gold Cup more than once.  In doing so 12 months ago, Trawlerman defied the age stats as, prior to Yeats, only one other Ascot Gold Cup winner going back to 1929 had been aged seven or older. Stradivarius tried and failed twice to become the next so Trawlerman was succeeding where he failed. Trawlerman was also only beaten a length into second by Kyprios when aged six. If he can make it to post, at the age of eight, he will be bidding to join Yeats as the only winning eight-year-old since 1900. As many as 19 of the last 20 winners have been very findable with just one winner (Trip To Paris at 12/1) sent off at bigger than 15/2. The likely favourite is the four-years’-younger Scandinavia who won the Goodwood Cup and St Leger as a three-year-old and is bidding to Aidan O’Brien what would be a tenth win in the race. O’Brien’s favoured route to the Gold Cup is the Vintage Crop and Saval Beg, both over 1m6f, which he has done so on many occasions with his best stayers, and Scandinavia won both those contests in his build up to Royal Ascot, outclassing his lesser rivals under a penalty. The French have won one just Gold Cup since Sagaro in 1977 when Westerner won at 2005 when the meeting was transferred to York. Their best stayers have, however, now been beaten twice by Caballo De Mar who has come an awful long way for George Scott since being beaten off a handicap rating off 64 at Lingfield in September 2024.  The winner of the last two Group 1 races for ‘Cup’ horses in France when taking the Prix du Cadran (2m4f) last autumn and the Prix Vicomtesse Vigier (1m7½f) this spring, he is a progressive, guaranteed stayer. In between those successes he was beaten half a length by into second by Fairy Glen in the Dubai World Cup and then by a short-head in the Sagaro when attempting to concede Sweet William 2lbs. Colour Vision (2012) and Estimate (2013) both contested the Sagaro before winning the Gold Cup. Three Queen’s Vase winners since 2012 went on to win the following year’s Gold Cup and five in total during that limited time period given that Stradivarius went on to win it twice more. Given his subsequent exploits, there also has to been every chance that Kyprios would have been another as he was set to run in Queen’s Vase during his three-year-old season before he became the champion stayer but was withdrawn when becoming upset in the stalls.  Last year’s Queen’s Vase 1-2-3 (Carmers, Further and Rahiebb) all hold a Gold Cup entry but after winning the Yorkshire Cup after he ran Scandinavia to a neck in the St Leger, it is Rahiebb which has progressed most in the subsequent 12 months. The best British guide, however, has been the Henry II Stakes at Ascot as half of the last 16 home-based Gold Cup winners prepped in that Group 2 at Sandown.  Up until 2010, the previous ten winners had won a Group 1 or 2 contest but, since then, Rite Of Passage, Estimate, Trip To Paris, Kyprios (first time) and Courage Mon Ami have won the Gold Cup having not won previously at such a level. In fact, the latter-named was having his first run in any group race on what was just his fourth career start. Twenty-five of the last 31 winners had won earlier in the season.  Can the draw be a factor over 2m4f? The six winners prior to Courage Mon Ami were drawn no higher than stall 7 so maybe there is just a little something in that? Estimate was the last winning mare and prior to that it was Indian Queen in 1991. Danielle is the shortest-priced contender this season. Positives: * Trained by Aidan O’Brien or John & Thady Gosden * Won an Ascot Gold Cup or Queen’s Vase * Contested the Henry II Stakes * Godolphin-owned contenders * Likely to start at no bigger than 15/2 * Won earlier in the season * Drawn lower half Negatives: * Aged older than six Friday, June 19 Commonwealth Cup This will be the twelfth edition of this Grade 1 race over 6f for three-year-olds which has proved to be such a hit, so race trends are only just starting to bed in hence the lack of pointers in the final summary.  Proven quality has paid so far with seven of the 11 winners officially rated between 114-119 beforehand (three of which were rated 117+). The 2023 winner, Shaquille, didn’t fill this criterion as he entered the race rated 111 (and neither did Time For Sandals last year) but he followed up his success here in the July Cup despite rearing leaving the stalls on both occasions and ended the campaign as Champion Sprinter. In its first year the Commonwealth Cup was won by another to-be Champion Sprinter, Muhaarar, beating the subsequent July Cup winner, Limato, into second place. Returning to sprinting proved to be key for Muhaarar, Advertise, Perfect Power and Inisherin in their winning years after they had run in a Guineas so the likes of the Karl Burke-trained Venetian Sun would fit into that profile if. Like her, expect contenders that didn’t stay a mile in various Guineas’ to line up here back down at 6f. After finishing a non-staying eleventh in the 1000 Guineas after being sent off 9/2 second-favourite, Venetian Sun, who won last season’s Albany over the Commonwealth Cup course and distance, then successfully dropped back 2f in distance to win the Sandy Lane Stakes in a breeze catapulting herself to the top of the market. Campanelle, Quiet Reflection and Time For Sandals have won for fillies from limited representation. That Group 2 contest at Haydock has been the best guide as in addition to Inisherin in 2024, the Burke-trained Quiet Reflection also won both races in 2016. Furthermore, the Sandy Lane has featured another Commonwealth Cup winner, three seconds and a third and 2023 winner, Little Big Bear, only found Shaquille too good at Royal Ascot. Moreover, back in 2021 Rohaan beat Dragon Symbol into second but was ineligible to run here being a gelding and won the Wokingham instead so he must have gone close as the runner-up passed the post in front in the Commonwealth Cup only to be disqualified. The Carnarvon Stakes at Newbury a week earlier is another Commonwealth Cup guide. Shaquille won the Carnarvon before his Royal Ascot success and Eqtidaar was only fourth at Newbury before winning at Royal Ascot. In fact, the Carnarvon winner has won at two of the last five Royal Ascot’s as Creative Force then added the Jersey Stakes on his next start so it’s a key guide to the meeting. Song Of The Clyde beat Albert Einstein into second in this season’s running. In addition to winning the Sandy Lane, Rohaan also took the Pavilion Stakes at Ascot in April which was won this season by Coppull who had the subsequent Sandy Lane runner-up, Division, back in third. Eqtidaar also used that race as a prep before winning the Commonwealth Cup and three more placed runners here ran in the Pavilion as part of their Royal Ascot preparations. Therefore, Eqtidaar was beaten in both the Pavillion and Carnarvon before winning the Commonwealth Cup which is what last season’s Middle Park winner, Wise Approach, may attempt to do. Golden Horde was a winning seasonal debutant in 2020 but that was the season which began only two weeks before Royal Ascot due to Covid. Campanelle was another when awarded the race in the stewards’ room. No winner had run more than twice earlier in the season. The only Irish-trained winner to date is Caravaggio for Aidan O’Brien. Positives: * Contested the Sandy Lane Stakes * Dropping down in trip from the 2000 Guineas  * Officially rated 114+ (117+ even better!) * Fillies Negatives: * More than two runs this season Coronation Stakes There have been some surprise results down the years, Cercene at 33/1 last season being a case in point, but this Group 1 affair for three-year-old fillies usually goes more or less the way of The Form Book and especially of late with 21 of the last 26 winners found at no bigger than 6/1 with 12 starting favourite or joint market leader.  Of the big three European versions of the 1000 Guineas, the Newmarket version has fared best being responsible for 13 of the last 23 winners and ten of those finished in the first six at Newmarket with the runner-up in that Classic going one place here in two of the last two runnings. The 1-2-3-4-5-6 in the 1000 Guineas were True Love (since beaten 2½l into second by the seventh at Newmarket, Precise, in the Irish 1000 Guineas), Evolutionist, Venetian Lace, The Prettiest Star, Albashiri and Touleen.  The Irish have won six of the last nine runnings including three for Aidan O’Brien so his record in the Coronation Stakes hasn’t been as stellar as for the other Group 1s at Royal Ascot from a mile upwards.  The Irish 1000 Guineas winner has followed up her success here on ten occasions in the last 39 years so they have a better record than the 1000 Guineas winner, even if the Newmarket classic has thrown up more winners generally. Makes sense being three weeks closer to Royal Ascot but it appears that Precise is more likely to wait for the Oaks so True Love could be his Coronation Stakes representative. That way, Ryan Moore could also ride both horses having chosen wrongly in both the 1000 Guineas and Irish 1000 Guineas leaving Wayne Lordan to benefit at Newmarket and The Curragh. The French 1000 Guineas has held up more than okay given that it wouldn’t have anywhere near the same representation as the Newmarket and Curragh Classics as seven of last 31 Coronation Stakes winners previously contested that prize (the last of was Watch Me seven years ago who was only sixth at Longchamp) with five having finished second or third in that Classic. In 2015 the Aga Khan’s Ervedya became the first winner of the French 1000 Guineas to win the Coronation Stakes since Toro in 1957 (Zarigana should have been another last year but threw it away late on) but many winners of that Classic then head to the Prix de Diane instead over an extra 2½f so don’t read anything into that. O’Brien’s Diamond Necklace won the ‘Pouliches’ and looks like heading to the ‘Diane’. If the French can bag the winner, then it would be their sixth this century after Banks Hill (Fabre), Immortal Verse (Collet) Ervedya and Qemah (both for Rouget) and Watch Me (Graffard). Alpine Star was an unusual winner six years ago as she became the first filly to take a more softly-softly approach and bypass all the European Guineas’ for nine years. She was winning on her seasonal debut as was Inspiral in 2022 having not come to hand in time for the 1000 Guineas. She became only the third winner since 1999 not to have run in a Classic but had won a pattern race at two though like 14 of the last 22 winners.  A wider drawn hasn’t been a disadvantage on the round mile. Far from it in fact with 11 of the last 15 winners drawn in the higher half and six of those from the highest three stalls. Positives: * The Irish 1000 Guineas winner * Finished in the first six in the 1000 Guineas * Trained in France * The favourite * Won a pattern race as a two-year-old Drawn in the higher half Negatives: * Likely to start at bigger than 6/1 * Not run in a Classic Saturday, June 20 Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes Twelve of the last 27 runnings to be sent off at double-figure odds so this has been the hardest of the eight Group 1 races at Royal Ascot for punters.  It was an international 1-2 last season as Lazzat from France held off Satono Reve for Japan, the pair pulling clear of the field with Flora Of Bermuda faring best of the rest. Lazzat will not be here to defend his title but Satono Reve could be back and Lugal is another potential runner for the Japanese. Joliestar has the option of running in both this race and the King Charles III Stakes for Australia. International raiders have a good record with Choisir and Black Caviar winning for Australia, Cape Of Good Hope for Hong Kong and Undrafted for America. Both of Aidan O’Brien’s winners, Starspangledbanner and Merchant Navy, were formerly trained in Australia. In addition, the Aussie pair of Takeover Target and Star Witness also finished third here after winning and finishing second respectively in the King’s Stand and three other American-trained horses have hit the frame since 2009 in addition to Wesley Ward’s Undrafted causing a mini-surprise.  Previous Royal Ascot form has been a useful pointer as half of the last 30 winners had been placed at worst at this meeting before. In fact, the 2022 Godolphin-owned 1-2, Naval Crown and Creative Force, had also finished 1-2 in the previous season’s Jersey Stakes, though the other way round. In addition, Dream Of Dreams had finished a close-up second in this race for the previous two years before making it third time lucky in 2021. Whether it is the Berkshire course that brings the best out of such contenders or the fact that their connections have readied them for this particular week is a difficult one to weigh up but I would argue that there is something in both arguments. Continuing that theme, seven years ago Blue Point emulated Choisir in completing the King Charles III-Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee double on the opening and closing days of the meeting. Five of the last 23 winners ran in the King’s Stand Stakes as have two of the last 11 runners-up.  Outside of previous Royal Ascot form, the renamed Minster Stakes at York (formerly the Duke Of York) has been the best guide as, since 1992, 11 Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes winners ran in that Group 2 event on the Knavesmire over the same trip with six finishing first or second before striking here. In fact, the 2024 1-2-3 all prepped in that Group 2 contest. This season’s running witnessed the York specialist Elmonjed beat Kind Of Blue and Regional. Group and Listed race winners with a victory earlier in the season have won 18 of the last 31 runnings.  The brilliant Black Caviar was the last female winner 14 years ago (and only winner since the race became a Group 1) and she was a bit special. Prior to that it was Posada back in 1988 so this Group 1 sprint at Royal Ascot has been much tougher fillies and mares at Royal Ascot than the other two. There can a huge difference between five and six furlongs at top level for many horses, as both trips have their specialists and the majority of horses more at home over the minimum trip tend to get caught out over an extra 220 yards at Group 1 standard. It is interesting that Sir Henry Cecil believed that 6f at Ascot races more like 6.5f so maybe there is something in the fact that only Kingsgate Native had not previously won over 6f prior to his victory since 1990. Six of the last ten winners had never run over 5f. In fact, only two of the last 24 winners had not run over at least 7f at some point.  Take out Hello Youmzain in the Covid year when the season was only two weeks old and only Naval Crown has won its seasonal debut in the last 43 years.  Positives: * Won or placed at Royal Ascot before * Won a Group or Listed race earlier in the season * Non-European trained contenders * Contested a 7f race at some point during their career * Never raced over 5f Negatives: * Not won over 6f+ * Fillies/Mares