Last year’s race Winner: Illinois Jockey: Ryan L Moore Trainer: Aidan P O'Brien Owner: Mr D Smith, Mrs J Magnier, Mr M Tabor Age: 3 Weight: 9st 2lbs Starting Price: 7/4 Season Form Figures: 32 Previous Best: 3rd - Criterium de Saint-Cloud (Group 1), Saint-Cloud (October 2023) By Paul Jones Since 2017 the Queen’s Vase has taken place over 1m6f rather than 2m, the draw has become more important, as there is a very short run to the first bend, so low numbers are favoured. True, the even-money favourite Gregory imposed his class on proceedings to win from stall 8 in 2023, but the five runners drawn 10+ occupied the last five positions. Maybe it's no surprise then that in the first running over the shortened trip, five of the first six horses were drawn in single-figures. The effect of the draw wasn’t so pronounced in 2019, but that race took place on the softest ground of the meeting, allowing more time for jockeys to find a position. As for 2020, there were only eight runners, so it was irrelevant, but in the last three years stall 3 beat stall 5 before a 3-6-1 outcome in 2023, while last year it was stalls 5 and 2 that fared best, so low draws near the rail were favoured again. Also upgraded to Group 2 status in 2017 in an attempt to breathe new life into the division, that move worked perfectly, with four of the first six winners since that change being the subsequent three-time Ascot Gold Cup hero Stradivarius, subsequent St Leger winners Kew Gardens and Eldar Eldarov, and Santiago, who went on to win the Irish Derby in Covid year. It had also seemed to be doing okay to me beforehand though, having recently featured three other St Leger and two Gold Cup winners ahead of that change, so it is certainly a race to take note of going forward. Kyprios was also declared for the 2021 running but was withdrawn having become upset in the stalls, and three races later he won the Gold Cup here. Last season’s winner Illinois is currently this season’s Gold Cup favourite. It has been the Aidan O’Brien, Mark Johnston, Sir Michael Stoute and Godolphin show since the turn of the century, carving up 21 of the 25 runnings between them. Only John Gosden (two winners after last year’s success), Andrew Balding and Roger Varian have managed to get in on the act during that period. Six years ago it was even a 1-2-3 for O’Brien, and he is now chasing a seventh win in the last 13 years (and a ninth in 19). With his father having trained seven of the last 24 winners, we wait to see what Charlie Johnston can do, but it will be harder for him now that it’s a Group 2 over 1m6f and not a lower-class race over 2m, like when the stable were enjoying their winners. Also take note that Sheikh Mohammed has won seven Queen’s Vase's since 1990 - four in his maroon-and-white colours and three in the Godolphin blue, with the latest being Kemari in 2021. Also note that the Queen’s Vase has been a mighty good race for followers of the market, with 27 of the last 30 winners starting in the first four in the betting and just one winner during that time period starting any bigger than 11/1. The favourite has now obliged on 11 occasions in the last 25 years following the success of Illinois 12 months ago. Fifteen winners this century had recorded a victory earlier in the campaign, so it is a little surprising that 12 of the last 23 winners were beaten last time out. That said, 12 of the last 17 winners to be beaten on their most recent start were contesting either a Group or Listed race in defeat. Illinois won here after finishing second in the Lingfield Derby Trial. Of the winners since 1992, just six were sired by a stallion with a Stamina Index of less than 10f. These SI stats aren’t overly surprising, given this a stern test of stamina for three-year-olds in June (even over 1m6f now rather than 2m), so horses with plenty of staying power in their pedigree have unsurprisingly come to the fore. The most surprising statistic with regards to winners since 1996 is that as many as eight were unraced at two. However, that trend is slightly deceiving, as up until Gregory in 2023 the previous 14 winners raced as juveniles. At a glance summary Positives The first four in the betting A low draw Trained by Aidan O’Brien or Charlie Johnston Owned by Godolphin Won this season Negatives By a sire with a Stallion Index of under 10f