Last year’s race Winner: Running Lion Jockey: Oisin Murphy Trainer: John & Thady Gosden Owner: Mr D P Howden Age: 4 Weight: 9st 2lbs Starting Price: 6/1 Season Form Figures: 28 Previous Best: 1st - Pretty Polly Stakes (Fillies' Listed), Newmarket (May 2023) By Paul Jones This Group 2 affair for older fillies and mares over the straight mile will be the 22nd running since it was upgraded from a Listed contest run at the September meeting. A number of strong patterns have emerged since its upgrade, none more so than 15 of the last 16 winners being four-year-olds, with the Marco Botti-trained Aljazzi in 2018 being the only outlier. Switched to the Round Course from the straight mile for the first time last year, that move had an immediate impact, with the winner, Running Lion, receiving the best ride when making all the running, with Oisin Murphy tracking over to the rail after racing wide early from stall 11. Peeress (14/1) and Amazing Maria (25/1) were hard to find but the favourite or second-favourite has won on 12 occasions. One of those was the 2022 winner Saffron Beach, when she overcame one significant negative trend. In victory she became the first winner to defy a Group 1 winning penalty of 5lb from 14 to try, and in some style too by 3½ lengths. Usherette defied a 3lb penalty nine years ago when an extra 2lb would have made no difference to that result. Sixteen of the 21 winners since the race became part of Royal Ascot had won a Group 2 or Group 3 earlier in their career, with another four having won at Listed level, including last year’s winner Running Lion, who could bid to defend her title after she finished second behind Diamond Rain last month at Haydock, though the winner was conceding her race fitness when successful on her return for Godolphin and was reported as being big in the paddock, so she is likely to tighten up for that return victory. Move Swiftly wouldn't have been on the radar of trends backers in 2019, being the only winner of the Duke of Cambridge not to have won at any of those levels previously. The Gosden stable have won five runnings going back to 2007, while the leading owners are Cheveley Park Stud with four victories, so look out for their red and white silks being great supporters of the fillies’ and mares’ programme. Could they even have an Arc filly on their hands this season in Estrange? Even though there isn't much time between the two races, the Princess Elizabeth Stakes (Group 3) at Epsom often throws up a leading hope, though the Dahlia Stakes (Group 2) at the Guineas meeting has been a much more notable guide, as the last nine winners to take their chance here have produced two winners, two seconds and a third, plus Integral and Running Lion both finished second before adding this more sought-after prize. This season’s Dahlia saw Godolphin’s Cinderella’s Dream quicken readily clear of last season’s 1000 Guineas winner Elmalka, with Running Lion last of five before her improved effort at Haydock. Godolphin have sent out four beaten favourites, but the Andre Fabre-trained Usherette put that right for them as market leader nine years ago. The French are not to be underestimated, having supplied three winners, two seconds and three thirds, so pay any Gallic rivals plenty of respect. Of the 21 winners when run at Ascot (one running at York), six had previously recorded a victory at the course previously, while another three had finished placed at the previous year’s Royal Meeting, so quality course form is certainly a bonus. At a glance summary Positives Four-year-olds The favourite or second-favourite Contested the Dahlia Stakes (the winner especially)Winning course form Won or placed at Royal Ascot last year Trained by John & Thady Gosden or in France Owned by Cheveley Park Stud Negatives Running under a Group 1 penalty Yet to win a Group or Listed race