Last year’s race Winner: Crystal Black Jockey: Colin Keane Trainer: Gerard Keane Owner: Wear A Pink Ribbon Syndicate Age: 6 Weight: 9st 10lbs Starting Price: 11/1 Season Form Figures: 11 Previous Best: 1st - 4yo+ Handicap, Curragh (May 2024) Our ideal contender will be a four or five-year-old arriving here off the back of a victory and drawn in double figures - three strong trends for this handicap over 1m4f for older horses which produced just two qualifiers in 2022 and they went to provide the wide-margin winner, Candleford, and third. In addition, the 2019 and 2021 winners also hit all three trends square on the head when giving Hughie Morrison and Mark Johnston their fourth wins in this race. A fourth strong trend for a competitive handicap is that six of the last 13 winners started favourite or joint-favourite. The Irish have won the last two runnings having previously been successful in 2000. Up until last season, horses drawn 9+ had won all 13 runnings since the switch of stall numbers so don’t be put off arguments suggesting that higher-drawn horses are up against it over this 1m4f trip. In fact, it was a 1-2-3-4-5 for horses drawn 9+ in 2023 and, the previous season witnessed five of the first six drawn in double-figure stalls. Moreover, in 2017 the 1-2-4 were drawn 19, 18, 17 just a year after a 1-2-3 for runners drawn 19, 13 and 15. Four-year-olds have historically fared best and they filled seven of the first eight places in 2019. However, two years earlier Rare Rhythm led home a 1-2-3 for five-year-olds following on from a 1-2-3-4 for the same age group in 2016. Prior to that, four-year-olds supplied seven of the first eight places in 2015, the first eight horses home in 2014 and six of the first seven in 2013. However, we did have our fourth six-year-old winner last season in the last 36 years. Last-time-out winners hold the call having been responsible for over half the winners in the last 30 years (16-14) which is an excellent return given they supply, on average, around 25% of the total runners. Candleford was the second winning seasonal debutant in seven years when successful in 2022. Of the last ten winners to have run earlier this season, eight had already won. Given the handicap has become much more condensed of late, weight stats have started to become irrelevant in a race where it usually paid to oppose those towards the lower end of the handicap. At a glance summary Positives Drawn in stalls 9+Last-time-out winners The favourite Trained by Hughie Morrison, Charlie Johnston or in Ireland Negatives Aged six or older Failed to win earlier this season (unless a seasonal debutant)