Royal Ascot 2024: St. James Palace Stakes Stats Guide

St James's Palace Stakes
Group 1 | Class 1 | 3YO only
Winner £368,615 - 16 entered to run

Last year’s race

Paddington
Winner: Paddington
Jockey: Ryan L Moore
Trainer: Aidan P O'Brien
Owner: Tabor/Smith/Magnier/Westerberg/Brant
Age: 3
Weight: 9st 2lbs
Starting Price: 11/5
Season Form Figures: 111
Previous Best: 1st - Tattersalls Irish 2,000 Guineas (Group 1), Curragh (May 2023)

By Paul Jones

It usually pays to stick to the leading fancies for the St James’s Palace Stakes and following the success of Paddington last season, 15 of the last 25 winners entered this race as a Classic winner.

We look set for a clash between the winners of the 2000 Guineas and Irish 2000 Guineas, with Notable Speech and Rosallion poised for their rematch after finishing 1-2 at Newmarket. A length and a half separated the pair at HQ, but a mile on the round course may suit Rosallion’s turn of foot better and having led as far as two furlongs out in the 2000 Guineas for a colt with such a potent change of gear, the likelihood is he will be held to challenge later this time around, similarly to how he was when just getting the better of stablemate Haatem at the Curragh.

Only Circus Maximus (10/1) - who had previously failed to stay in the Derby when finishing sixth - has won at double-figure odds since 1992, when Brief Truce floored Arazi and Rodrigo De Triano (both unplaced), while ten of the last 16 winners were sent off favourite.

The days of all three major Guineas winners taking each other on here diminished when the Prix du Jockey-Club was reduced to 1m2f, with many winners of the Poulains (French 2000 Guineas) now heading to Chantilly instead, so the 2000 Guineas and Irish 2000 Guineas hold an even more significant edge over the French equivalent, with the Newmarket and Curragh Classics having highlighted 20 and 17 of the last 29 winners, respectively.

In fact, an eye-catching 15 of the last 29 St James’s Palace Stakes winners contested both the 2000 Guineas and Irish 2000 Guineas, so that’s a significant plus for both Rosallion and Haatem. The authoritative 2021 winner Poetic Flare actually contested all three Guineas contests, underlining his incredible toughness. Aidan O’Brien has been the trainer to follow in this, winning nine of the last 24 runnings, and seven of his winners contested the Irish 2000 Guineas en route to Royal Ascot, in which his River Tiber, who also won the Coventry Stakes at last year’s Royal Ascot, finished third on his seasonal debut. The relevance of highlighting that victory 12 months ago is that Henrythenavigator, Canford Cliffs and Dawn Approach all won the Coventry Stakes prior to winning this in the last 14 years, so that’s of significant interest.

Three of O’Brien’s dual Guineas winners went on to add this prize, but his finest hour in this race came when saddling the 1-2-3 in 2007, and he has also had 12 horses placed in addition to his winners going back to 2002.

The Gosden stable have won two of the last six runnings, though all with horses that bypassed all the Guineas races (Without Parole and Palace Pier), and they were only a neck away from making that three victories when King Of Comedy was narrowly denied in between those two successes. Lead Artist could bid to join them after winning a novice by 4¾ lengths at York’s Dante Meeting.

Notable Speech ran out an impressive winner for Godolphin of what appears to be a good 2000 Guineas, with the form since being franked by the second, third and sixth. Coroebus was giving Godolphin a fourth St James’s Palace victory in 2022 following Shamardal, Dawn Approach and Barney Roy, but they have also been represented by five losing Classic winners.

In the biggest field of modern times, Most Improved won from stall 15 of 16 in 2012, but it’s been a case of the lower - nearer the rail - the better since. Three of the last six winners came from stalls 1 or 2 - all three in double-figure fields.

Winning form last time out is far from essential, as 11 of the last 28 winners were beaten on their most recent start - three in the Derby. Only two of the last 11 winners had just one previous run earlier that season.

At a glance summary

POSITIVES

Ran in both the 2000 Guineas and Irish 2000 Guineas
A Group 1 winner (especially a European Guineas)
The favourite
Trained by Aidan O’Brien (especially if contested the Irish 2000 Guineas)
Drawn low
Won last season’s Coventry Stakes

NEGATIVES

Yet to contest a Group 1 (unless trained by John & Thady Gosden)
Failed to finish in the first four in any European Guineas (unless trained by John & Thady Gosden)
Less than two starts this season