Royal Ascot 2024: Norfolk Stakes Stats Guide

Norfolk Stakes
Group 2 | Class 1 | 2YO only
Winner £85,065 - 33 entered to run

Last year’s race
Winner: Valiant Force
Jockey: Rossa Ryan
Trainer: Adrian Murray
Owner: Amo Racing/Mrs R O'Callaghan/G De Aguiar
Age: 2
Weight: 9st 3lbs
Starting Price: 150/1
Season Form Figures: 25
Previous Best: 2nd - GAIN First Flier Stakes (Listed), Curragh (May 2023)

By Paul Jones

If The Ridler was hard to find at 50/1 two years ago, how about Valiant Force last season at 150/1? For whatever reason, the Norfolk Stakes has been a graveyard for favourite backers in more recent times as we have to go back to South Central in 2008 to locate the last successful market leader.

In winning as the 5/1 second-favourite five years ago, A’Ali became the first maiden to win the Norfolk for 29 years having finished second on his debut at Ripon. Valiant Force was another last season after finishing second and fifth in his two previous races at The Curragh in a Listed and Group 3 races.

The 2021 winner, Perfect Power, was also beaten on debut before winning his maiden and then caused a mini-surprise here at 14/1 but he had the class to later add two Group 1 successes after taking this Group 2. Just six winners since 1991 had tasted defeat on their previous start and all eight winners since 1997 that had run more than twice were beaten first time out.

Seventeen of the last 30 winners were unbeaten, nine of which had won their only start, which given their lack of representation may well be the strongest positive trend.

Eight of Wesley Ward’s Royal Ascot victories were two-year-olds including two in the Norfolk (though what he considers to be the best that he has ever trained, Golden Pal, was only second here) but perhaps more significantly, nine were achieved in races over 5f.

Richard Hannon last took the honours ten years ago with Baitha Alga and he supplied the second and third in 2015. His father secured victories with Niche (1992), Lucky Lionel (1995) and Baron's Pit (2002) in addition to saddling two runners-up going back to 1994 so Team Hannon still have to be respected.

Peter Chapple-Hyam has won this race on three occasions and also note William Haggas who has saddled two winners - as has Richard Fahey after taking two of the last three runnings.

This 5f Group 3 contest is very much for precocious types and, as such, very few winners have made a serious impact the following season. Of winners since 1997, eight had previously been tried at further than 5f but, interestingly, that does include four of the last nine winners, two of which were trained by Aidan O’Brien.

The recent Roll of Honour of winning sires is packed with sprinters so it is no surprise that 25 of the last 28 winners were by stallions with a Sire Index of no bigger than 8.3f with nine of those being the produce of stallions with a Sire Index of less than 7f (even as short as 5½f in 2021 with Ardad being the winning stallion) as there aren't too many of them.

Windsor form has come to the fore with five of the last 16 British-trained winners either winning or finishing second at the riverside track.

Four of the last 13 winners were drawn in the lowest two stalls in field sizes of 21, 18, 14 and 10.

Positives
Undefeated (notably having won only start)
By a stallion with a Sire Index of less than 7f
Trained by Richard Hannon, Wesley Ward, Richard Fahey, Peter Chapple-Hyam or William Haggas
Drawn in stall 1 or 2

Negatives
The favourite
Beaten last time out
By a stallion with a Sire Index of more than 8f