Royal Ascot 2024: King James Charles III Stakes Stats Guide

King Charles III Stakes
Group 1 | Class 1 | 3YO plus
Winner £368,615 - 25 entered to run

Last year’s race

Bradsell
Winner: Bradsell
Jockey: Hollie Doyle
Trainer: Archie Watson
Owner: Victorious Racing
Age: 3
Weight: 9st 1lbs
Starting Price: 14/1
Season Form Figures: : 33
Previous Best: 1st - Coventry Stakes (Group 2), Ascot (June 2022)

By Paul Jones

Formerly known as the King’s Stand, we again look set to have an international flavour to this season’s King Charles III Stakes, with entries from Australia in Asfoora and America in Crimson Advocate, who won last season’s Queen Mary over course and distance - as had another American filly in Lady Aurelia who went on to add this race the following season.

Fillies/mares have a decent strike rate in this, given how outnumbered they usually are, winning six of the last 30 runnings.

Two years ago, Nature Strip’s victory was the performance of the whole meeting when giving the Aussies their fifth win since 2003. He was their best sprinter at the time, whereas connections of Asfoora conceded ahead of finishing fourth in the Temple Stakes that she would only be around the eighth-best sprinter in their homeland. Then again, the sprinting division over here is currently very weak.

Mick Appleby’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint winner Big Evs is ante-post favourite to become the fifth successful three-year-old this century, having also won the Windsor Castle Stakes at last year’s meeting. The last two winners of this race had also won at Royal Ascot the previous season, with Bradsell having won the 2022 Coventry Stakes prior to his success 12 months ago.

Age is not a critical factor, with recent winners aged from three right through to seven in the last nine years, but over a longer period of time three-year-olds have a decent strike rate, winning, on average, twice a decade, which may not sound all that exciting but they are always heavily outnumbered, so do afford them respect. However, the Commonwealth Cup over 6f and restricted to the Classic generation is likely to take some contenders away from this 5f Group 1 contest.

The other leading three-year-old contender this season is Bucanero Fuerte, who won the Group 1 Phoenix Stakes last season and returned to action to defy a penalty at Naas. This would be his first run over 5f in over a year, however, and therefore the Commonwealth Cup looks the more likely option at this stage.

British-trained horses have won six of the last nine runnings, having previously been up against it since the sprinting scene became more global. There were international successes in 2013, 2014 (both Sole Power) and 2017 (Lady Aurelia) after four Australian-trained winners since 2003, a success for France in 2005 (and twice more in the previous eight years), Hong Kong in 2012, and even a Spanish-trained winner in 2008.

Kerdos won the Temple Stakes last month, which has been the best guide to date with six winners since 1990 - one ahead of the Prix du Gros-Chene with five winners in the last 28 years - but it did seem a below-par renewal this time around, and the second and third don’t even hold entries here.

Thirteen of the last 24 winners were also successful on their most recent outing. In fact, 14 of the last 19 winners finished either first or second last time out. Big Evs returned to action at York when outclassing a Listed field giving away weight, while another leading fancy and Group 1 winner last season in Regional also ran well on his seasonal return when second to Mitbaahy in the Greenlands Stakes, only just failing to give away his Group 1 penalty.

As you would expect for a competitive Group 1 sprint, Pattern-race winners have come to the fore, with 26 of the last 35 winners having already won at Group 1 or Group 2 level, so no massive angle there. All bar four of the last 24 winners had also won a Group race over the minimum trip of 5f (also to be expected), while all bar two had enjoyed the benefit of a run earlier in the season (still nothing to get particularly excited about).

At a glance summary

POSITIVES

Last-time-out winners
Trained in Australia
Contested the Temple Stakes
Top-four finish in the Prix du Gros-Chene
Three-year-old winner at Royal Ascot last year
Fillies/mares

NEGATIVES

Outside the first two last time out
Failed to win a Group 1 or Group 2
Failed to win a Group race over 5f