Royal Ascot 2024: Coventry Stakes States Guide

Coventry Stakes
Group 2 | Class 1 | 2YO only
Winner £99,242

Last year’s race

River Tiber
Winner: River Tiber
Jockey: Ryan L Moore
Trainer: Aidan P O'Brien
Owner: Tabor/Smith/Magnier/Westerberg/Brant
Age: 2
Weight: 9st 3lbs
Starting Price: 11/8
Season Form Figures: 11
Previous Best: 1st - Coolmore Stud Calyx Race (2YO), Naas (May 2023)

By Paul Jones

Aidan O’Brien is the most successful trainer in the race’s long history with ten winners but, outside of the Chesham Stakes over 7f, he prefers to get two runs into two-year-olds that he sends to Royal Ascot. He has managed that with Camille Pissarro, though he was edged out of the Marble Hill Stakes by Arizona Blaze on his second run.

The ante-post favourite since making a winning debut has been Cowardofthecounty for Joseph O’Brien who beat Whistlejacket by 2½l in his maiden and that Aidan O’Brien-trained runner-up has since comfortably beaten Arizona Blaze 3½l before that runner-up then gave Group 3 success to Adrian Murray and AMO Racing in the Marble Hill. Power and Caravaggio have completed the Marble Hill-Coventry double since 2011.

That aforementioned Irish-trained quartet head the market at the time of writing, but we must also respect O’Brien’s other runners as three of his contenders that were not his shortest-priced contenders have also won.

Last-time-out winners are usually a must as until Nando Parrado, only Harbour Master had won off the back of a defeat in the last 40 runnings, so Camille Pissarro would have to overturn that trend.

However, usually at least 50% of the field are last-time-out winners and I very much like the strike rate of Coventry winners that won their only start heading into Royal Ascot having won 15 of the last 31 runnings - a stat that favours Cowardofthecounty. The once-raced profile is also favoured for the fillies’ equivalent race at the meeting over 6f, the Albany Stakes, though not the 5f two-year-old races.

Despite the 150/1 success of Nando Parrado four years ago (and that was just two weeks into the turf season following the return to racing during Covid so a weakened renewal), the Coventry Stakes has been a very good race for punters since it was promoted to Group 2 status 20 years ago with as many as ten favourites or joint-favourites obliging in the last 18 years following the success of River Tiber last season.

Nando Parrado became just the fifth winner since Chief Singer won at 20/1 on his racecourse debut in 1983 that failed to start in the first five in the betting and three of those were trained at Ballydoyle.

Six of the last 11 winners were drawn no more than three stalls away from either rail with two of those drawn highest of all (War Command and Berkshire Shadow) so closest to the stands’ rail.

The Hannon stable has the best record of British-based yards with relatively recent wins for Canford Cliffs and Strong Suit who both won a maiden at Newbury at the Lockinge Meeting. Threat went close for the yard in the 2019 running of the Coventry finishing second after winning at the Lockinge Meeting and the Andrew Balding-trained Berkshire Shadow also won a Newbury maiden ahead of him winning this prize. Mr Chaplin won the 6f maiden at the Lockinge Meeting this year by 3l for Ralph Beckett.

Two of the last nine Woodcote winners went on to win at Royal Ascot including Buratino in the Coventry (the other being Pinatubo in the Chesham who ended the season as Champion Two-Year-Old). As this year’s winner on Oaks Day was a filly in Teej A, the Albany looks set to be her next target.

As an aside, five Coventry Stakes winners between 2007-2012 also went on to win at Royal Ascot the following season and it looks like River Tiber could be heading for the Jersey Stakes.

At a glance summary

POSITIVES

Unbeaten (preferably one run and one win)
Trained by Aidan O’Brien or Richard Hannon
The favourite
Drawn in the highest or lowest three stalls
Winner of a Newbury maiden

NEGATIVES

Beaten last time out
Outside the front five in the betting