Royal Ascot 2024: Copper Horse Handicap Stats Guide

Copper Horse Handicap
Class 2 | 4YO plus
Winner £56,694 - 47 entered to run

Last year’s race
Winner: Vauban
Jockey: Ryan L Moore
Trainer: W P Mullins
Owner: Mrs S Ricci
Age: 5
Weight: 9st 8lbs
Starting Price: 1/1
Season Form Figures: Seasonal debut (Flat)
Previous Best: 2nd - Champion Hurdle (Grade 1), Punchestown (April 2023)

By Paul Jones

Run for the first time in 2020, this handicap for older horses over an extended 1m6f could be an insightful guide to Ebor Handicap again.

That certainly proved to be the case in the first year when the successful favourite Fujaira Prince then also justified favouritism at York on his next start, and last season Absurde then went one place better in the Ebor than when second to stablemate Vauban here. So, clearly, we must respect any Willie Mullins-trained entries.

So, favourites have won the first and last of the four runnings but it was a couple of 33/1 outsiders that fought out the second running before Get Shirty beat the Chester Cup winner and strong favourite Cleveland in the third and that winner then subsequently hit the frame in the Ebor.

In the first running the 1-2-3 all came from the bottom half of the handicap (as did three of the first four in 2021) but higher-weighted horses dominated last year with four of the first five emanating from the top eight in the handicap so no real early steer there.

High numbers certainly fared best in 2022 with the 1-2-3-4 coming out of stalls 16-9-19-14 whereas the horses that filled the last three positions were drawn 1-4-3. There is a very short run indeed to the first bend so this came as a surprise and in contrast to previous Queen’s Vases over the same trip.

The other point of interest from the first running was, although the winner was aged six, four-year-olds filled the next five places from their six runners. In 2022 four-year-olds again collectively fared well finishing first, third and fourth.

With just four runnings to work off there are no individual race trends to speak of but punters who still like a stats-based approach could look to stables that traditionally fare well in staying races, like Johnston yard for example who have won no less than ten 1m4f handicaps at the meeting (and seven Queen’s Vases). Sir Michael Stoute has won ten runnings of the King George V Handicap and Duke of Edinburgh Stakes combined (both handicaps 2f shy of this trip) and Alan King won both of the other staying handicaps for older horses at the 2020 meeting.

Positives
The favourite
Trained by Willie Mullins
Four-year-olds

Negatives
None