Royal Ascot 2024: Buckingham Palace Stakes Stats Guide

Buckingham Palace Stakes
Handicap | Class 2 | 3YO plus
Winner £56,694 - 66 entered to run

Last year’s race
Winner: Witch Hunter
Jockey: Jamie P Spencer
Trainer: Richard Hannon
Owner: Mr William Stobart
Age: 4
Weight: 9st 10lbs
Starting Price: 50/1
Season Form Figures: 202025
Previous Best: 2nd - All-Weather Sprint Championships Conditions Stakes (Class 2), Newcastle (April 2023)

By Paul Jones

Brought back to open the meeting in 2020 after its services were not required for five seasons when a race had to make way to incorporate the Commonwealth Cup into the meeting in 2015, this 7f all-aged handicap has been retained since it’s re-birth and this will be the 18th running all told.

From those first 17 runnings I would argue that it the weakest trends handicap of the meeting (bar the new races introduced in the last four years of course) with winners coming from many ages and all over the handicap so we are very thin on pattern-based angles.

Often you can gloss over handicappers aged six and upwards in hot handicaps as they are thoroughly exposed, but horses aged 6+ have won five editions of the Buckingham Palace. However, since the race was brought back four years ago, four-year-olds have won all four editions including filling five of the first six places from just eight representatives in a 23-runner field in 2020 and then registered a 1-2-3 in 2021 and a 1-3-5-6 in 2022 before a 1-3-4 last year so that would be my statistical starting point.

Fancied horses won the first four runnings but two 25/1 shots and a 33/1 outsider won the next three renewals followed by nine more double-figure priced winners including Witch Hunter last year at 50/1 so this is a race where you might want to open up your mind. In fact, one of those was even Highfield Princess who then dropped in trip and went on to become Champion Sprinter the following season with three Group 1 wins.

The draw can be helpful as a middle draw in big-field, straight course handicaps isn’t usually a positive. The 2014 winner was drawn close to the stands’ rail with the previous year’s winner drawn right up against it. Centrally-drawn horses have struggled in the last nine runnings with winners coming from stalls 29, 6, 29, 30, 11, 32, 29, 26, 2 and 24.

Ascot form is a plus. The 2022 winner, Inver Park, won at the course the previous season and had Ascot stalwart, Ropey Guest, at 40/1 back in second. The winner back in 2013 (the fifth-last running) was second in the big-field handicap for lady riders on King George Day the previous season, the 2012 winner finished fifth in the Royal Hunt Cup the previous season, the 2011 winner was second in the Victoria Cup, the 2010 winner was fifth in a Coventry Stakes, the 2009 winner had finished third in a £100K 7f handicap at the course the previous season and the 2007 winner was third in the previous season’s renewal.

Excluding the Covid year, seven of the last eight winners were having their at least their fourth start of the season. In fact, Witch Hunter was having his eighth run of the year when he was successful for Hannon and Spencer (the Ascot straight course go-to jockey) last season. Of the last-winning octet, six carried 9st+ but the majority of the field are likely to do that these days.

Sir Michael Stoute has only saddled four runners, all four of which started in the first two in betting and none of which finished in the first ten.

Positives
Four-year-olds
Drawn in the highest or lowest six stalls
Quality handicap form at Ascot
Ran 3+ times earlier in the season
Don’t be afraid of big-priced runners

NEGATIVES
Trained by Sir Michael Stoute