Royal Ascot 2022: Queen's Vase Stats Guide

Last year’s race

Winner: Kemari

Jockey: W Buick

Trainer: C Appleby

Owner: Godolphin

Age: 3 Weight: 9st 0lbs

Starting Price: 15/2

Season Form Figures: 21

Previous Best: 1st - Class 4 Maiden, Yarmouth (May 2021)

By Paul Jones

Upgraded to a Group 2 status and decreased in distance from 2m to 1m6f in 2017 in an attempt to breathe new life into this division, that move worked perfectly with three of the first four winners since that change being the subsequent x3 Ascot Gold Cup hero, Stradivarius, the subsequent St Leger winner, Kew Gardens, and Santiago who then won the Irish Derby. It had also seemed to be doing okay to me beforehand though having recently featured three other St Leger and two Gold Cup winners ahead of that change so it is certainly a race to take note of contenders going forward.

It has been the Aidan O’Brien, Mark Johnston, Sir Michael Stoute and Godolphin show since the turn of the century carving up 20 of the 22 runnings between them. Only John Gosden and Andrew Balding have got in on that act during that period with one winner apiece.

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Four years ago it even a 1-2-3 for O’Brien and, with a better draw, his Barbados (from 12 of 13) may well have won in 2019 rather than beaten half a length. Having trained seven of the last 21 winners, we wait to see what Mark & Charlie Johnston have to work with but it has been O’Brien dominating of late and he is chasing a sixth win in the last ten years (and an eighth in 16). The Aga Khan and Sir Michael Stoute successfully combined with Maridpour (1998) and Dalampour (2000) plus Stoute has also won two of the last 14 runnings with Patkai and Estimate for different owners. Also take note that Sheikh Mohammed has won seven Queen’s Vase's since 1990, four in his maroon-and-white colours and three in the Godolphin blue, the latest with Kemari last year.

Now that the race takes place over 1m6f, the draw becomes more important as there is a very short run indeed to the first bend. Maybe no surprise therefore that in the first running over the shortened trip that five of the first six horses were drawn in single figures. The effect of the draw wasn’t so pronounced in 2019 but that race took place on the softest ground of the meeting giving more time for jockeys to find a position. As for 2020, there were only eight runners so it was irrelevant and last season stall 3 beat stall 5.

Also note that the Queen’s Vase has been a mighty good race for followers of the market with 24 of the last 27 winners starting in the first four in the betting and just one winner during that time period started at any bigger than 11/1. The favourite has obliged on eight occasions in the last 22 years.

Thirteen winners this century had recorded a victory earlier in the campaign so it is a little surprising that 11 of the last 20 winners were beaten last time out. That said, 11 of the last 16 winners to beaten on their most recent start were contesting Group and Listed races in defeat.

Of winners since 1992, just five were sired by a stallion with a Stamina Index of less than ten furlongs. These SI stats aren’t surprising given that this a stern test of stamina for 3yos in June (even over 1m6f now rather than 2m) so horses with plenty of staying power in their pedigree have unsurprisingly come to the fore.

The most surprising statistic with regards to winners since 1996 was that as many as seven were unraced at two. However, that trend is deceiving as the last 13 winners raced as juveniles and now it is a Group 2, that will be even harder to overturn.

At a glance summary:

POSITIVES

Start in the first four in the betting

Trained by Aidan O'Brien, Mark Johnston & Charlie Johnston or Sir Michael Stoute

Beaten in a Group or Listed race last time out

Owned by Godolphin

A low draw

NEGATIVES

By a sire with a Stallion Index of under 10f