By Paul Jones Last year’s race Winner: Palace Pier Jockey: L Dettori Trainer: J & T Gosden Owner: Sheikh Hamdan Bin Mohammed Al Maktoum Age: 4 Weight: 9st 0lbs Starting Price: 2/7 Season Form Figures: 11 Previous Best: 1st - St James's Palace Stakes (Group 1), Ascot (June 2020) We have the strongest trends race of Royal Ascot to kick off the five-day extravaganza which is also highly likely to play host to the shortest-priced favourite in the week in Baaeed who, being a four-year-old that won the Lockinge in a breeze, isn’t one to take on using trends as well as The Form Book. Fifteen of the last 19 winners had already struck at Group 1 level. The Lockinge Stakes has featured 23 Queen Anne winners since 1980 after Palace Pier completed the double last season and it is the obvious starting point being the first domestic Group 1 of the season for older horses that takes place over a mile. For the record, defeated horses in the Lockinge actually have a better winning record than the winner claiming 15 of the last 26 runnings but of course there are more beaten horses than winners. Hard to see any of the vanquished at Newbury reversing placings with the super-impressive winner this year though. Real World looked like he was ridden to finish second at Newbury in which case job done and he could re-oppose. The dual Group 1 winning fillies from last season, Alcohol Free and Mother Earth, were both disappointing finishing out of the places. Baaeed is a four-year-old and they have won 22 of the last 29 runnings of the Queen Anne so that’s another big tick for the heavy odds-on favourite. He won’t start as short as Frankel who won at odds of 1/10 and winning by 11 lengths in what in my view was his best ever performance but I think that you will do well to get any change out of 2/7 come the day. Just three winners since 1995 did not feature in the first four in the betting for a horse that many are saying could be the best we’ve seen since Frankel being 7-7 having only made his debut in June last year so there’s every chance that he can keep on improving. Aidan O’Brien has had mixed fortunes in the Queen Anne as horses with more brilliance than his four winners (Ad Valorem, Haradasun, Declaration Of War and Circus Maximus) such as Hawk Wing, George Washington and Rip Van Winkle all even failed to place. Two of his four winners were disappointing in the Lockinge which was used mainly as a prep race so maybe all is not lost for Mother Earth’s each-way prospects who only finished ninth at Newbury. Last season’s 1000 Guineas winner still looks the pick of the fillies but the only two fillies/mares to win in the Queen Anne in the last 47 years were the reigning Breeders’ Cup Mile winners, Goldikova and Tepin. Sir Michael Stoute could be represented by Lights On after his five-year-old won the Group 2 Bet365 Mile at Sandown. The stable won all three runnings between 2000-2002 but none before or after. The Hannon stable have won three of the last 13 renewals and could be represented by the Lockinge third, Chindit. Godolphin have owned the winner on eight occasions and Terebellum went within a head of making that nine two years ago. Last season’s unlucky 2000 Guineas runner-up, Master Of The Seas, is their big hope this time after he made a winning return in the Earl Of Sefton. The French have won on three occasions going back to 2005 and both their entries this year are trained by Francis-Henri Graffard; The Revenant and Dilawar. Ignoring the Covid year when Royal Ascot began just two weeks into the belated start to the season, only one seasonal debutant, Toronado, has won since Allied Forces in 1997. That would be against Order Of Australia if he starts his campaign here. In 2019, Lord Glitters at the age of six became the oldest winner since 1976 but he is not entered this year and probably needs a longer trip now aged nine. The 2018 winner, Accidental Agent, could take his chance at the age of eight after a fine run to finish second off top weight in the Victoria Cup. At a glance summary POSITIVES Contested the Lockinge Stakes Four-year-olds Trained by Aidan O’Brien or Sir Michael Stoute Owned by Godolphin NEGATIVES Failed to have won a Group 1 race Start outside the first four in the betting Aged over five