Royal Ascot 2022: Jersey Stakes Stats Guide

Last year’s race

Winner: Creative Force

Jockey: James Doyle

Trainer: C Appleby

Owner: Godolphin

Age: 3 Weight: 9st 1lbs

Starting Price: 5/1

Season Form Figures: 111

Previous Best: 1st - Listed Carnarvon Stakes, Newbury (May 2021)

By Paul Jones

It is far from uncommon that horses which contested a version of a Guineas for colts or fillies drop back a furlong in trip to win the Jersey Stakes at a lower level. In fact, in the last ten years, five winners had finished placed in a Guineas and two more were unplaced in the 2000 Guineas. Moreover, in two of the last eight years the 1-2-3 had all run in a Guineas beforehand as have all three of Aidan O’Brien’s Jersey Stakes winners. O’Brien trails Sir Michael Stoute by three winners, his first success being back in 1977.

The tide has certainly turned with regards to penalised runners as four of the last 11 winners (Strong Suit, Mustajeeb, Dutch Connection and Ribchester) defied a penalty following 24 consecutive years of unpenalised winners of the Jersey Stakes. That is more significant when we take on board that there has been just one penalised runner in the last three seasons so class has told. Listed race winners have been successful on six occasions in the last 17 years and are unpenalised. Regards last-time-out maiden winners, they endured a terrible run after Zilzal won in 1989 not winning again until Aqlaam in 2008 but Rainfall became another two years later.

Nine of the last 23 winners won last time out and the best guide outside of a classic has been the King Charles II Stakes won this season by Noble Truth for Charlie Appleby by 6l. His Godolphin outfit saddled the 1-2 in last season’s Jersey with Creative Force beating Naval Crown. Godolphin’s only other winner was 18 years ago. The 2006 and 2007 King Charles II winners both followed up here and two more Jersey Stakes winners, Membership and Observatory, finished second in that Listed race immediately prior to winning here.

Horses to finish unplaced last time out have won six of the last 24 runnings but three of those winners finished out of the frame in the 2000 Guineas, so perhaps best give them a pass.

The two 5/1 joint-favs finished first and second last year. We had a turn up three years ago when Space Traveller won at 25/1 following a good run for the market leaders with five winners in six years sent off in the first four in the betting. In victory, Space Traveller was giving Richard Fahey a second fairly recent winner following Ribchester.

Rainfall and Ishvana have won for fillies in the last 11 runnings.

At a glance summary:

POSITIVES

Contested any version of a Guineas (notably if finishing placed)

Penalised for winning a Group race

Last time out winner

Listed race winner

Ran well in the King Charles II Stakes

Trained by Sir Michael Stoute, Aidan O’Brien or Richard Fahey

NEGATIVES

Unplaced on most recent start unless in the 2000 Guineas