Royal Ascot 2022: Gold Cup Stats Guide

Last year’s race

Winner: Subjectivist

Jockey: J Fanning

Trainer: M Johnston

Owner: Dr J Walker

Age: 4 Weight: 9st 1lbs

Starting Price: 13/2

Season Form Figures: 1

Previous Best: 1st - Dubai Gold Cup (Group 2), Meydan (March 2021)

By Paul Jones

After finishing third behind the sidelined Subjectivist in last season’s race (would likely have beaten Princess Zoe for second place with better luck in running), Stradivarius has been kept in training to try and emulate Yeats and win a fourth Gold Cup. There have been 18 dual Gold Cup winners but only Sagaro, Yeats and Stradivarius have won it more than twice.

At the age of eight has he now lost the edge to beat the very best stayers around or was he just meeting better horses last season than in the previous three years? Probably a bit of both but he’s still very good at mopping up below Group 1 level as we saw again in the Yorkshire Cup. Prior to Yeats, only one other winner going back to 1929 had been aged seven or older. Therefore history tells us that only exceptional horses over the age of six tend to win the Gold Cup, and stayers don’t get much more exceptional than Yeats who won here as a seven and eight-year-old.

The Irish have won half of the last 16 Gold Cups, seven of which were trained by Aidan O’Brien who is set to run Kyprios after he won both starts as a four-year-old this season having missed the second half of 2021 through injury caused in the stalls in last year’s Queen’s Vase won by Kemari (not entered). Three Queen’s Vase winners since 2012 went on to win the following year’s Gold Cup and five in total during that limited time period given that Stradivarius went on to win it twice more so interesting that Kyprios was set to run there before he was withdrawn when becoming upset in the stalls.

Seven of the last 14 British-trained Ascot Gold Cup winners contested the Henry II Stakes won by Quickthorn who was previously a close second behind Princess Zoe in the Sagaro. That contest at Sandown has been the most productive Gold Cup guide in recent years supplying ten of the last 28 winners and, of those ten winners, six were placed. As for the Sagaro as a guide, recent Gold Cup winners Colour Vision and Estimate both contested that Group 3 trial.

Godolphin have won five Gold Cups going back to 1996 but look weak on staying talent at present (have no entries) but Skazino could represent France after winning the Prix Vicometesse Vigier, though they have won one just Gold Cup since Sagaro in 1977.

Up until 2010, the previous ten winners had won a Group 1 or 2 contest but, since then, Rite Of Passage, Estimate and Trip To Paris have won the Gold Cup having not won previously at such a level. A total of 21 of the last 27 winners had won earlier in the season. Trip To Paris won the Chester Cup and Cleveland will have his supporters to also successfully make the leap from winning that prestigious handicap to the top prize for stayers in little over a month.

As far as the market is concerned, we have endured some surprise winners with six being sent off at 14/1+ in the last 27 years but, more importantly, 15 of the last 16 winners have been very findable with no winner bigger than 7/1. Providing the going isn’t lighting fast (withdrawn on quick ground ahead of last year’s race), Trueshan looks set to start favourite after winning last season’s Goodwood Cup, Prix du Cadran and British Champions Long Distance Cup, defeating Stradivarius in the latter two races.

At a glance summary:

POSITIVES

Likely to start at no bigger than 7/1

Irish-trained

Won a Queen’s Vase

Horses that won or were placed over middle distances at Group 1 level

Godolphin-owned contenders

Won earlier in the season

NEGATIVES

Yet to win a Group 1 or Group 2 race

Aged older than six