Royal Ascot 2022: Coventry Stakes Stats Guide

Last year’s race

Winner: Berkshire Shadow
Jockey: Oisin Murphy
Trainer: A M Balding
Owner: Berkshire Parts & Panels Ltd
Age: 2 Weight: 9st 1lbs
Starting Price: 11/1
Season Form Figures: 1
Previous Best: 1st - Class 4 Maiden, Newbury (April 2021)

By Paul Jones

Despite the 150/1 success of Nando Parrado two years ago (and that was just two weeks into the turf season following the return to racing so a weakened renewal), the Coventry Stakes has been a very good race for punters since it was promoted to Group 2 status 18 years ago with as many as nine favourites or joint-favourites obliging in the last 16 years.

Nando Parrado became just the fifth winner since Chief Singer won at 20/1 on his racecourse debut in 1983 that failed to start in the first five in the betting and three of those were trained at Ballydoyle.

Aidan O’Brien is the most successful trainer in the race’s long history with nine winners but, outside of the Chesham Stakes over 7f, he prefers to get two runs into two-year-olds that he sends to Royal Ascot. He has managed that with Blackbeard who is 3-3 culminating with a success in the Marble Hill Stakes which has been the best recent Irish guide with the same stable’s Power and Caravaggio completing the double since 2011.

Blackbeard is challenging Noble Style and Persian Force for favouritism in what looks a good edition but we must also respect his other runners as three of his runners that were not his shortest-priced contenders have also won - just like 29 winners of British and Irish Classics that O’Brien has sent out. Just let that sink in. Winning 29 Classics with not even your best chance!

Last-time-out winners are usually a must as until Nando Parrado, only Harbour Master had won off the back of a defeat in the last 38 years. Usually at least 50% of the field are last-time-out winners and it has definitely paid to concentrate on unbeaten horses.

I like the strike rate of winners of their only start having won 14 of the last 29 runnings - Berkshire Shadow being the latest last year. The once-raced profile is also favoured for the fillies’ equivalent race at the meeting over 6f, the Albany Stakes.

The Hannon stable has the best record of British-based yards with relatively recent wins for Canford Cliffs and Strong Suit who both won the same 6f maiden at Newbury at the Lockinge Meeting won this season by the Hannon-trained Dark Thirty. Threat went close for the yard in the 2019 running of the Coventry finishing second. Berkshire Shadow also won a Newbury maiden (his being over 5f) ahead of him stepping up to 6f to win this prize.

Two of the last seven Woodcote winners went on to win at Royal Ascot including Buratino (won by 6l) in the Coventry and this season’s contest was won by Legend Of Xanadu.

As an aside, five Coventry Stakes winners between 2007-2012 also went on to win at Royal Ascot the following season.

At a glance summary

POSITIVES
Unbeaten (preferably one run and one win)
Trained by Aidan O’Brien or Richard Hannon
The favourite
Winner of a Newbury maiden race

NEGATIVES
Beaten last time out
Outside the front five in the betting