Royal Ascot 2022: Coronation Stakes Stats Guide

Last year’s race

Winner: Alcohol Free

Jockey: Oisin Murphy

Trainer: A M Balding

Owner: Mr J C Smith

Age: 3 Weight: 9st 0lbs

Starting Price: 11/2

Season Form Figures: 15

Previous Best: 1st - Cheveley Park Stakes (Fillies’ Group 1), Newmarket (September 2020)

By Paul Jones

Of the big three European versions of the 1000 Guineas, the Newmarket version has fared best being responsible for 11 of the last 19 winners and eight of those finished in the first six at Newmarket so that has to the first port of call and starting with the all-the-way winner, Cachet, who then found just one too good in the French 1000 Guineas when attempting the Classic double. So exactly the same profile then as Mother Earth last year who then went on to finish third in the Coronation Stakes.

Three seasons ago Hermosa failed in her attempt to join Attraction and Winter as a dual Guineas winner who also added the Coronation Stakes this century but the Irish 1000 Guineas winner has followed up here on nine occasions in the last 35 years which bodes well for Homeless Songs who ran out such an emphatic winner beating the Aidan O’Brien-trained pair of Tuesday (also placed in the 1000 Guineas before winning the Oaks) and Concert Hall.

The French 1000 Guineas has held up more than okay given that it wouldn’t have anywhere near the same representation as the Newmarket Classic as seven of last 27 Coronation Stakes winners previously contested that prize (including Watch Me three years ago who was only sixth at ParisLongchamp) with five having finished second or third in that Classic. Mangoustine could bid to try and emulate Ervedya who completed the Pouliches-Coronation double in 2015. Ervedya became the first winner of the French 1000 Guineas to win the Coronation Stakes since Toro in 1957 but many winners of that Classic then head to the Prix de Diane next.

There have been some surprise results down the years but this Group 1 affair for three-year-old fillies usually goes more or less the way of The Form Book and especially of late with 18 of the last 22 winners found at no bigger than 6/1 with ten starting favourite or joint market leader.

Alpine Star was an unusual winner two years ago as she became the first filly to take a more softly-softly approach and bypass all the European Guineas for nine years and just the second to do so since 1999. She had won a pattern at two though like 11 of the last 18 winners.

As far as trainer trends are concerned, Sir Michael Stoute has won four runnings, one ahead of Aidan O’Brien and two ahead of John Gosden but the record of the French overall trumps them all with four winners in the last 11 years and two of those that weren’t French-trained were French-owned and saddled by Jessica Harrington.

At a glance summary:

POSITIVES

Finished in the first six in the 1000 Guineas

Finished in the first three in the French 1000 Guineas

The Irish 1000 Guineas winner

The favourite

Trained Sir Michael Stoute

French connections

Won a pattern race as a two-year-old

NEGATIVES

Not run in a Classic

Likely to start at bigger than 6/1

Beaten in the Irish 1000 Guineas