Royal Ascot 2022: Chesham Stakes Stats Guide

Last year’s race

Winner: Point Lonsdale

Jockey: R L Moore

Trainer: A P O'Brien

Owner: D Smith, Mrs J Magnier, M Tabor, Westerberg

Age: 2 Weight: 9st 3lbs

Starting Price: 10/11

Season Form Figures: 2

Previous Best: 5th – 2yo Maiden, Naas (June 2020)

By Paul Jones

Alfred Munnings looks set to start a short-priced favourite to give Aidan O’Brien a fifth Chesham success in the last seven runnings following the victory of the odds-on Point Lonsdale last year and a sixth all told. All five Ballydoyle winners were once raced heading into the contest as is Alfred Munnings who won by 4½l on his sole start at Leopardstown.

In victory last season, Point Lonsdale extended the superb record of the leading fancies as 29 of the last 33 winners could be found in the first four in the betting and 15 of those winners started favourite (including joint-favourites) and all five odds-on shots within that time period were successful.

Two of O’Brien’s five winners were fillies and they have won four times in the last 20 years including a 1-2 in 2017 and must be respected given they are heavily outnumbered and have the Albany option over a stiff 6f.

Pinatubo was giving Godolphin their third win in this race in 2019 and they also ran their Derby winner, Masar, in this race when finishing third in 2017 so the Chesham has featured two domestic Classic winners in its last six runnings (Churchill being the other) so it has become a much more fashionable race of late.

Pinatubo added the Chesham to his Woodcote and maiden races successes so he was more experienced than most winners of this 7f contest. Prior to his victory what was significant about recent winners were the vast majority were once-raced. Fourteen of the last 24 winners had now won their sole start whereas four of the last nine winners; Berkshire, Richard Pankhurst, Churchill and Battleground, were beaten on their on their only previous run and the 1996 winner, Shamikh, was having his racecourse debut.

Mark Johnston likes this race and saddled the second and fourth two years ago. It takes a tough two-year-old to win over as far as 7f in a quality race at this stage of the season and toughness is the hallmark of his training operation. Although out of luck with his runners in the last decade including the 5/4 favourite in 2018 (though he was unrepresented on three of those occasions), his previous six runners heralded three winners and a third. John Gosden has supplied three winners, two runners-up and a third.

Seven furlongs in mid-June is a test of stamina for two-year-olds so no surprise whatsoever that stamina-laden sires have a good record. Of the last 25 winners, 12 were by offspring of stallions whose Sire Index was over 10f (the 2015 winning sire, Youmzain, is a high as 14.4f) and ten more winners’ Sire Index’s were over 9f, comfortably so in the vast majority of cases.

At a glance summary:

POSITIVES

Had one start

The favourite

By stallions with a Sire Index of at least 10f

Trained by Aidan O’Brien, Mark Johnston or John Gosden

Fillies

NEGATIVES

Outside of the first four in the betting

By stallions with a Sire Index of under 9f