Royal Ascot 2022: Ascot Stakes Stats Guide

Last year’s race

Winner: Reshoun

Jockey: W Buick

Trainer: Ian Williams

Owner: Dr Marwan Koukash

Age: 7 Weight: 9st 7lbs

Starting Price: 66/1

Season Form Figures: 0

Previous Best: 1st - Class 2 Handicap, Newbury (July 2020)

By Paul Jones

Despite Reshoun winning at 66/1 last season the Ascot Stakes has unquestionably the most punter-friendly handicap at the meeting with 11 of the last 13 winners sent off at no bigger than 12/1 and, in the last 32 years, as a many as 21 winners could be found in the first six in the betting.

Six of the last ten winners were trained in Ireland but they were not allowed to travel over for the 2020 running due to Covid regulation for non-Class 1 races so that reads even better. Willie Mullins has won four runnings since 2012 and has also saddled three runners-up after M C Muldoon was beaten just a short-head last year. In fact, when Lagostovegas won four years ago, she led home a Mullins-trained 1-2-4-5. She was also the fourth successful filly or mare in the last 14 years from low representation. Fillies/mares have also finished second in the last two of the last three runnings.

Last season’s runner-up and the 2020 1-2 had been running over hurdles during the winter. Both winners were trained by recognised dual-purpose trainers in Alan King and Ian Williams who was winning it for a second time. It should be pointed out that virtually every trainer does hold a flat and jumps licence but I like to concentrate on trainers better known for their jumps horses with Charles Byrnes, Jonjo O’Neill, David Pipe, Suzy Smith, Paul Webber, Tony Martin (x2 and two more placed) and Jarlath Fahey also all better known for jump racing taking this prize this century and Martin Pipe won it four times between 1993-2003.

The Ascot Stakes used to be very much a race in which to concentrate on four and five-year-olds but seven of the last eight winners were aged between six and nine (five of which were trained in Ireland). Prior to those Irish-trained victories, 15 of the previous 19 winners emerged from that 4-5 age bracket.

Horses carrying less than 9st had been responsible for approximately 50% of the total runners between 1996-2008 but only won on three occasions but, in the last few years, the weights have been so much more compressed that very few horses have run off below 9st and the class acts are coming to the fore. The Grand Visir overcame top weight three years ago and three other winners going back to 2012 carried 9st 10lb. In 2020 the top weight, Verdana Blue, finished second under 9st 10lb with the second-top weight, Summer Moon, finishing third.

There are no strong individual race guides (the Chester Cup has the best record) and there used to be a draw angle when there were bigger fields but not anymore since the safety factor was cut from 30 to 20.

At a glance summary:

POSITIVES

Trained by a primarily jumps-based stable

Trained Trained in Ireland (notably Willie Mullins)

Start in the first six in the betting

Mares

NEGATIVES

British-trained contenders aged older than five

Likely to be sent off at over 12/1