Royal Ascot 2021 Stats Guides: St James's Palace Stakes

It usually pays to stick to the leading fancies for the St James’s Palace Stakes. Only the Aidan O’Brien-trained Circus Maximus (10/1), who had previously failed to stay in the Derby when finishing sixth, has won at double-figure odds since 1992 when Brief Truce floored Arazi and Rodrigo De Triano (both unplaced).

O’Brien has unquestionably been the trainer to follow winning eight of the last 21 runnings and six of his winners contested the Irish 2000 Guineas. Three of his four dual Guineas winners went on to add this prize but his finest hour in this race was when saddling the 1-2-3 in 2007 and he has also had 12 horses placed in addition to his winners going back to 2002.

John Gosden has won two of the last three runnings however with horses that bypassed all the Guineas’ (Without Parole and Palace Pier) and he was only a neck away from making that the last three years as King Of Comedy was only just denied in between those successes. Without Parole and King Of Comedy both won the Heron Stakes which the stable took this year with Mostahdaf.

It would appear that the 2000 Guineas winner, Poetic Flare, will run here after since contesting the French and Irish versions where he finished sixth behind St Marks Basilica (then won the Prix du Jockey Club) and second to Mac Swiney who finished fourth in the Derby. Winning form last time out is far from essential as 11 of the last 26 winners were beaten on their most recent start, three in the Derby.

The Newmarket and Irish 2000 Guineas hold a significant edge over the French equivalent with the Newmarket and Curragh Classics having highlighted 18 and 15 of the last 26 winners respectively. In fact, an eye-catching 14 of the last 26 St James’s Palace Stakes winners contested both Classics which is what Poetic Flare and Lucky Vega have done this season. Twelve of the last 22 winners entered the race as a Classic winner.

As for two-year-old form, Henrythenavigator, Canford Cliffs and Dawn Approach all won the Coventry Stakes on the same day 12 months earlier in the last 12 years which was won last season by Nando Parrado at 150/1.

Barney Roy placed in the 2000 Guineas before giving Godolphin a third SJP victory four years ago following Shamardal and Dawn Approach but they have had also been represented by five losing Classic winners. With Master Of The Seas having suffered a setback they could be represented by the Heron Stakes runner-up, Highland Avenue.

Positives: Ran in both the Newmarket and Irish 2000 Guineas, a Group 1 winner (especially if won a European Guineas), start at single-figure odds, trained by Aidan O’Brien (especially if contested the Irish 2000 Guineas), won last season’s Coventry Stakes and/or Dewhurst Stakes.

Negatives: Yet to contest a Group 1 race, failed to finish in the first four in any form of 2000 Guineas unless trained by John Gosden.