Royal Ascot 2021 Stats Guides: Ribblesdale Stakes

Back to normal for the Ribblesdale this season as last year it was an Oaks trial with Epsom put back a month due to Covid. It is a Group 2 where Oaks runners have a pretty good record given how few fillies contested both prizes turning out again relatively quickly (seven wins since 1997).

It is not a massively strong trends race but it can still pay to look to a later-developing improver as just six winners in the last 26 years had been contesting Group races as juveniles so the Ribblesdale boasts a very similar pattern in this respect to the colts' equivalent of this race at the Royal Meeting, the King Edward VII Stakes.

With regards to a filly’s last run, five winners in the last 19 years won a maiden last time out. The 2019 winner, Star Catcher, was previously third in a Listed prize but ended the season and the leading 3yo middle-distance filly adding three Group 1s after her success in the Ribblesdale. Winning form earlier in the season is usually a good steer as 18 of the last 22 winners had won either of their last two starts during the current campaign and nine of the last 13 winners had won at Group or Listed level.

The Irish have won the Ribblesdale eight times in the last 19 years (three for Aidan O’Brien and two Dermot Weld) including the 1-2 in 2015 so they have fared considerably better than in the colt’s equivalent, the King Edward VII, with two victories in the last 46 years. O’Brien saddled the second and third last season.

Godolphin had been quiet in this race with no runners between 2006-2008 but they have won it twice since adding to three previous successes (all trained by Saeed bin Suroor) and four seconds from just 14 runners so they clearly know what is required. With three winners and four seconds in the last 17 years we also have to seriously respect John Gosden who is gunning for a hat-trick after Star Catcher and Frankly Darling and a fourth win in five years. Sir Michael Stoute should be faring a whole lot better and has been responsible for five losing favourites from his last 23 runners.

Positives: Won a Group or Listed race, trained in Ireland, last-time-out winner, Godolphin-owned, trained by John & Thady Gosden, did not contest a Group race as a two-year-old.

Negatives: Not won either of last two starts, trained by Sir Michael Stoute.