Royal Ascot 2021 Stats Guides: Jersey Stakes

It is far from uncommon that horses which contested a version of a Guineas for colts or fillies drop back a furlong in trip to win the Jersey Stakes at a lower level. In fact, in the last nine years, five winners had finished placed in a Guineas and two more were unplaced in the 2000 Guineas. Moreover, in two of the last seven years the 1-2-3 had all run in a Guineas beforehand as have all three of Aidan O’Brien’s Jersey Stakes winners.

The tide has certainly turned with regards to penalised runners as four of the last ten winners (Strong Suit, Mustajeeb, Dutch Connection and Ribchester) defied a penalty following 24 consecutive years of unpenalised winners of the Jersey Stakes. That is more significant when we take on board that there were no penalised runners in the last two seasons so class has told. Listed race winners have been successful on five occasions in the last 16 years and are unpenalised. Regards last-time-out maiden winners, they endured a terrible run after Zilzal won in 1989 not winning again until Aqlaam in 2008 but Rainfall became another two years later.

Just eight of last 22 winners won last time out and the best guide outside of a classic has been the King Charles II Stakes won this season by Bellosa. The 2006 and 2007 winners both followed up here and two more Jersey Stakes winners, Membership and Observatory, finished second in that Listed race immediately prior to winning here. Horses to finish in the first three in the last nine runnings of the King Charles II Stakes have gone on to place here.

Horses to finish unplaced last time out have won six of the last 24 runnings and three of those winners finished out of the frame in the 2000 Guineas.

We had a turn up two years ago when Space Traveller won at 25/1 following a good run for the market leaders with five winners in six years sent off in the first four in the betting as was last year’s victor, Molatham. In victory Space Traveller was giving Richard Fahey a second winner in five years following Ribchester. Sir Michael Stoute leads Aidan O’Brien 4-3 after Expert Eye’s runaway success three years ago.

Rainfall and Ishvana have won for fillies in the last 11 runnings.

Positives: Contested any version of a Guineas (notably if finishing placed), penalised for winning a Group race, last time out winner, listed race winner, ran well in the King Charles II Stakes, trained by Sir Michael Stoute, Aidan O’Brien or Richard Fahey.

Negatives: Unplaced on most recent start unless in the 2000 Guineas.