Royal Ascot 2021 Stats Guides: Hardwicke Stakes

When successful aged five in 2019, Defoe ended the long sequence of winning four-year-olds that has stretched out to 11 runnings. Jupiter Island is the only winner over the age of five since 1905.

Fanny Logan resumed normal service last season for four-year-olds and in victory she became the first successful filly/mare since Stanerra back in 1983 who was winning here just three days after also taking the Prince of Wales’s Stakes.

Sir Michael Stoute leads the way and Sangarius or Highest Ground could bid to give him a twelfth Hardwicke success and eight of those successes have been achieved going back to just 2006. Other trainers to note are Mark Johnston (Sir Ron Priestley) and Aidan O’Brien with four and three winners respectively. O’Brien’s three winners have been achieved in the last 12 years whereas MJ’s quartet of successes were some time ago now between 1999-2005.

The Group 1 penalty for the Hardwicke Stakes was dispensed with eight years ago and Defoe’s connections took advantage of that after winning the Coronation Cup on his previous start. Prior to that only Assatis in 1990 was a former Group 1 winner in over a quarter of a century. As for Group 2 or Group 3 winners yet to win at the highest level, they have been responsible for 23 of the last 26 winners and 12 of the last 19 winners had won a Group race earlier in the season.

The Coronation Cup has been the best guide signposting nine of the last 22 winners, eight of which finished between third and sixth, positions filled by Japan, Albaflora, Highland Chief and Mogul, with Pyledriver edging out Al Aasy to win the six-runner contest having improved for the run when second to the race-fit Sir Ron Priestley at Newmarket. All six from the Coronation Cup hold the Hardwicke entry but Pyledriver is likely to be aimed at the King George next.

Al Aasy could take his chance and prior to his close second at Epsom he won the John Porter which was won by Maraahel and Harbinger in the last 14 years ahead of them winning the Hardwicke. The Huxley Stakes at Chester has also been a good guide. The Huxley Stakes at Chester has also been a good guide as four of the last six winners of that Group 3 race to run in the Hardwicke Stakes have notched up three wins and a second. It would appear that Armory is heading for the Prince of Wales’s Stakes instead after he beat Sangarius.

Trip-wise, only Indian Creek, Await The Dawn and Fanny Logan in the last 25 years were recording their first success over at least 1m4f so don’t look to contenders primarily known as being 1m2f horses as this 1m4f takes some getting. All but two of the last 20 winners had placed at worst in a Group race earlier in the season, the omissions being Sea Moon who won a Listed race and Idaho who ran as if he badly needed his seasonal return in the Coronation Cup.

Five of the last nine favourites have won so it’s been a good race for the market leader.

Positives: Four-year-olds, won a Group race earlier in the season, trained by Sir Michael Stoute, Mark Johnston or Aidan O’Brien, ran in the Coronation Cup (notably if finished between third-sixth).

Negatives: Aged 6+, failed to win a Group 2 or Group 3 race, failed to have won over at least 1m4f.