Royal Ascot 2021 Stats Guides: Gold Cup

Stradivarius is set to start favourite to emulate Yeats and win his fourth Gold Cup. There have been 18 dual Gold Cup winners but only Sagaro, Yeats and Stradivarius have won it more than twice.

Judged on his return to action when snugly winning the Sagaro Stakes, I doubt that he has lost any of his ability between the ages of six and seven, it’s more of a case of whether he is facing stiffer opposition this season having been beating up a less-than-stellar bunch of stayers over the last couple of years. Subjectivist and Trueshan have both impressed winning their Group 1 staying races.

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The reigning title holder has won eight of the last 24 runnings and Stradivarius is certainly the one to beat even if history tells us that only exceptional horses over the age of six tend to win the Gold Cup, and stayers don’t get much more exceptional than Yeats who won here as a seven and eight-year-old. Prior to Yeats, only one other winner going back to 1929 had been aged seven or older.

The Irish have won eight of the last 15 Gold Cups, seven of which were trained by Aidan O’Brien who could run last season’s Irish Derby 1-2, Santiago and Tiger Moth.

Seven of the last 13 British-trained Ascot Gold Cup winners contested the Henry II Stakes won by the Henry de Bromhead-trained Lismore who would need to be supplemented if she is to tale her chance. The disappointments in the testing ground were the Sagaro second and third, Ocean Wind and Nayef Road. That contest at Sandown has been the most productive Gold Cup guide in recent years supplying ten of the last 27 winners and, of those ten winners, six were placed.

As for the Sagaro as a guide, recent Gold Cup winners Colour Vision and Estimate both contested that Group 3 trial. Sticking with Ascot form and three Queen’s Vase winners since 2012 went on to win the following year’s Gold Cup and five in total during that limited time period given that Stradivarius went on to win it twice more so respect for Santiago who prepped by finishing second in the Yorkshire Cup behind Spanish Mission.

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Godolphin have won five Gold Cups going back to 1996 but look weak on staying talent at present and there are no French challengers this year, though they have won one just Gold Cup since Sagaro in 1977.

Up until 2010, the previous ten winners had won a Group 1 or 2 contest but, since then, Rite Of Passage, Estimate and Trip To Paris have won the Gold Cup having not won previously at such a level. Twenty of the last 26 winners had won earlier in the season.

As far as the market is concerned, we have endured some surprise winners with six being sent off at 14/1+ in the last 26 years but, more importantly, 14 of the last 15 winners have been very findable with no winner bigger than 7/1.

Positives: Likely to start at no bigger than 7/1, Irish-trained,won a Queen’s Vase, horses that won or were placed over middle distances at Group 1 level, Godolphin-owned contenders, won earlier in the season.

Negatives: Yet to win a Group 1 or Group 2 race, aged older than six.