Royal Ascot 2021 Stats Guides: Diamond Jubilee Stakes

Previous Royal Ascot form has been a useful pointer as 12 of the last 25 winners had been placed at worst at this meeting before. In fact, both of last season’s 1-2 had placed at the meeting the previous year and the runner-up, Dream Of Dreams, is trying to make it third time lucky in this race having been touched off in photo finishes for the last two years. Whether it is the Berkshire course that brings the best out of such contenders or the fact that their connections have readied them for this particular week is a difficult one to weigh up but I would argue that there is something in both arguments.

Continuing that theme, two years ago Blue Point emulated Choisir in completing the King’s Stand-Diamond Jubilee double on the opening and closing days of the meeting. Five of the last 18 Diamond Jubilee Stakes winners ran in the King’s Stand Stakes as have two of the last ten runners-up.

Outside of previous Royal Ascot form, the Duke Of York Stakes has been the best guide as since 1992, ten Diamond Jubilee Stakes winners ran in that Group 2 event on the Knavesmire over the same trip with six finishing first or second before striking here. Starman beat Nahaar by a neck with Art Power back in a disappointing sixth.

Group and Listed race winners with a victory earlier in the season have won 15 of the last 26 runnings but there were very few home-based ‘trials’ as such last year due to Covid so for the first time in over 40 years we had a winning seasonal debutant in Hello Youmzain.

International raiders have a good record with Choisir and Black Caviar winning for Australia, Cape Of Good Hope for Hong Kong and Undrafted for America. Both of Aidan O’Brien’s winners, Starspangledbanner and Merchant Navy, were formerly trained in Australia. In addition, the Aussie pair of Takeover Target and Star Witness also finished third here after winning and finishing second respectively in the King’s Stand and three other American-trained horses have hit the frame since 2009 in addition to Wesley Ward’s Undrafted causing a mini-surprise.

There can a huge difference between five and six furlongs at top level for many horses, as both trips have their specialists and the majority of horses more at home over the minimum trip tend to get caught out over an extra 220 yards at Group 1 standard. It is interesting that Sir Henry Cecil believed that 6f at Ascot races more like 6.5f so maybe there is something in the fact that only Kingsgate Native had not previously won over 6f prior to his Diamond Jubilee victory since 1990. Four of the last five winners had never ran over 5f. In fact, only two of the last 19 winners had not run over at least 7f at some point.

As many as six favourites won between 1989-1997 but we had to wait until Starspangledbanner put an end to the 13-year losing run of the market leader when winning as 13/2 joint-favourite in 2010 and four more favourites have also justified their position as market leader since so it has been a profitable last decade for favourite backers. However, it has also been a race in which to chance some fancy-priced horses lately as nine of the last 21 winners started at a double-figure price.

Positives: Won or placed at Royal Ascot before, won a Group or Listed race earlier in the season, non-European trained contenders, contested a 7f race at some point during their career, never raced over 5f.

Negatives: Not won over 6f.