Royal Ascot 2021 Stats Guides: Buckingham Palace Stakes

Brought back to open the meeting last year after its services were not required when a race had to make way to incorporate the Commonwealth Cup into the meeting in 2015, this 7f all-aged handicap is now run as the final race in Thursday for its 15th running.

From those first 14 runnings I would argue that it the weakest trends handicap of the meeting (bar the races introduced last year and new handicaps this year of course) with winners coming from many ages and all over the handicap so we are very thin on pattern-based angles.

Fancied horses won the first four runnings but two 25/1 shots and a 33/1 outsider won the next three runnings followed by seven more double-figure priced winners so I would argue this is a race not to go too overboard about on the punting front.

Often you can gloss over handicappers aged six and upwards in hot handicaps as they are thoroughly exposed but horses aged six, seven and eight have won four of the last runnings. However, when the race was brought back last year, four-year-olds filled five of the first six places from just eight representatives in a 23-runner field so that would be my statistical starting point.

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The draw can be helpful as a middle draw in big-field, straight course handicaps isn’t usually a positive. The 2014 winner was drawn close to the stands’ rail with the previous year’s winner drawn right up against it. Centrally-drawn horses have struggled in the last eight runnings with winners coming from stalls 29, 6, 29, 30, 11, 32, 29 and 26. It was high numbers that dominated last season with the 1-2-3-4 housed in stalls 26-22-16-27.

Ascot form is a plus. The winner back in 2013 (third-last running) was second in the big-field handicap for lady riders on King George Day the previous season, the 2012 winner finished fifth in the Royal Hunt Cup the previous season, the 2011 winner was second in the Victoria Cup, the 2010 winner was fifth in a Coventry Stakes, the 2009 winner had finished third in a £100K 7f handicap at the course the previous season and the 2007 winner was third in the previous season’s renewal.

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Sir Michael Stoute has only saddled four runners, all four of which started in the first two in betting and none of which finished in the first ten.

Positives: Quality Ascot handicap form, drawn in the highest or lowest six stalls, don’t be afraid of big prices.

Negatives: Trained by Sir Michael Stoute.