Royal Ascot 2021 Stats Guides: Ascot Stakes

Unquestionably the most punter-friendly handicap at the meeting with 11 of the last 12 winners sent off at no bigger than 12/1 and, in the last 31 years, as a many as 21 winners could be found in the first six in the betting.

Six of the last nine winners were trained in Ireland but they were not allowed to travel over to contest anything lower than Class 1 races at this time last year and this is a Class 2. Willie Mullins has won four runnings since 2012 and also saddled two runners-up. In fact, when Lagostovegas won three years ago, she led home a Mullins-trained 1-2-4-5. She was also the fourth successful filly or mare in the last 13 years from low representation. Fillies/mares have also finished second in the last two runnings.

Last season’s 1-2 had been running over hurdles during the winter and Alan King finally won this race with Coeur de Lion (fifth the previous year but improved for a first-time visor) having also had two placed runners in 2017. He was beating the Nicky Henderson-trained favourite, Verdana Blue, into second. Henderson has won the race before as have many other trainers better known for jumpers. In fact, dual-purpose trainers have now won 13 of the last 14 runnings with Ian Williams (1st and 3rd in 2019), Charles Byrnes, Jonjo O’Neill, David Pipe, Suzy Smith, Paul Webber, Tony Martin (x2 and two more placed), Jarlath Fahey all better known for jump racing taking this prize this century and Martin Pipe won it four times between 1993-2003. Now we can add Alan King to that ever-expanding list.

The Ascot Stakes used to be very much a race in which to concentrate on four and five-year-olds but six of the last seven winners were aged between six and nine (five of which were trained in Ireland). Prior to those Irish-trained victories, 15 of the previous 19 winners emerged from that 4-5 age bracket.

Horses carrying less than 9st had been responsible for approximately 50% of the total runners between 1996-2008 but only won on three occasions but, in the last few years, the weights have been so much more compressed that very few horses have run off below 9st and the class acts are coming to the fore. The Grand Visir overcame top weight two years ago and three other winners going back to 2012 carried 9st 10lb. Last season’s top weight, Verdana Blue, finished second under 9st 10lb with the second-top weight, Summer Moon, finishing third.

There are no strong individual race guides and there used to be a draw angle when there were bigger fields but not anymore since the safety factor was cut from 30 to 20.

Positives: Trained by a primarily jumps-based stable, trained Trained in Ireland (notably Willie Mullins), trained Start in the first six in the betting, trained Mares.

Negatives: British-trained contenders aged older than five, likely to be sent off at over 12/1.