Royal Ascot 2020: Trendspotting
Want to know which runners came up trumps in the Group races? What section of the draw proved most profitable on both the Straight and Round Course? Which trainer holds the best record in handicaps? Then, the 2020 Trendspotting Guide covers it all, including key jockeys, breeding, profiles and betting.
A lack of Flat form during what has been an unusual build-up to this year's Royal Ascot means punters may well have to put their faith in both trainers and jockeys to deliver the goods in Berkshire. Preparing a horse for Ascot this season is unlike any other in recent memory, but some handlers will enjoy the challenge, using both craft and patience to ensure their runners hit the ground running - fitness being key.
This approach in following trainers - whose excellent record in getting their string ready for this five-day festival - should be noted more than ever, and we start with a close-up of the most popular trainer of them all during the last 10 years here in Aidan O’Brien, who sent out 27 winners during the last five Royal Ascot's.
:: Royal Ascot 2020: Get PPs, previews, analysis, recaps and more
TRAINERS – THE BIG SIX
Aidan O’Brien
Last five Royal Ascot’s:
2019: 5-53 (-£6)
2018: 4-52 (-£32)
2017: 6-36 (-£7)
2016: 7-26 (+£42)
2015: 5-18 (+£17)
It was another crowning achievement at the top of the Royal Leaderboard 12 months ago when Aidan O’Brien sent out five winners - two clear of Roger Varian, on three. Success in the Coventry took O’Brien’s record in that particular juvenile event to nine victories - his most successful event at Royal Ascot. The St James's Palace isn't too far behind on eight wins, though, following Circus Maximus’ triumph at 10-1. Value runners at double-figure odds also presented opportunities for backers too, as O’Brien’s Ascot runners in the 10-1 to 33-1 range delivered at 10-114 +£63 - of those 10 winners, eight avoided Group 2/3 & Listed races last time out (8-65 +£86). It also goes without saying that Ryan Moore proved a vital cog in pushing home the majority of the yard’s winners here for a small profit (26-127 +£3).
Best races (all-time): Coventry Stakes (9); St James’s Palace Stakes (8); Gold Cup (7); Queen’s Vase (6); Chesham Stakes (4); Jersey Stakes (3); Queen Anne Stakes (3); Prince of Wales’s Stakes (3); Coronation Stakes (3); Hardwicke Stakes (3); Norfolk Stakes (3); Hampton Court Stakes (3); Ribblesdale Stakes (3)
Group 2, Group 3 & Listed races (27-166 +£64)
Class 4 & Class 5 juvenile races last time out (9-57 +£62)
Beaten 1-4l last time (11-71 +£56)
First run over trip (16-90 +£31)
2yo’s (12-71 +£27)
Negatives
Group 1 last time out (13-99 -£46)
John Gosden
Last five Royal Ascot’s:
2019: 2-25 (-£18)
2018: 4-27 (-£9)
2017: 2-31 (-£14)
2016: 2-22 (+£3)
2015: 2-18 (-£6)
Having recorded a double or better in nine of the last 10 years at this meeting, John Gosden clearly remains a man to be with across the five days on Ascot Heath. His partnership with Frankie Dettori can also be relied in the big races, as witnessed with Stradivarius in the last two Golds Cups, while the combo’s record in handicaps reads consistent. At the 2019 meeting, the Gosden/Dettori combo almost struck with both Turgenev (2nd of 28) in the Britannia and Ben Gracie (2nd of 19) in the Duke Of Edinburgh. Admittedly, both fancies were well supported in the market, and there in lies the challenge regarding Gosden’s runners, as the bookies tightened their prices on him in recent times. From 2010-2014, following Gosden blind at this meeting returned a +£14 profit (13 winners), but from 2015-2019, backers of the yard returned a loss of -£44 (12 winners).
Best races: Wolferton Stakes (4); Ribblesdale Stakes (3); Prince of Wales’s Stakes (3); Britannia Stakes (3); King Edward VII Stakes (3); Jersey Stakes (2); Windsor Forest Stakes (2); Tercentenary Stakes (2); Coronation Stakes (2); Chesham Stakes (2); Royal Hunt Cup (2); St James’s Stakes (2); Gold Cup (2)
Positives:
2yo’s and 4yo’s (13-62 +£38)
Non-Group/Listed last time (14-93 +£10)
Last time out winner (15-68 +£7)
Negatives:
3yo’s (10-117 -£54)
Non-Group/Listed (2-51 -£35)
Sir Michael Stoute
Last five Royal Ascot’s:
2019: 2-13 (-£1)
2018: 4-14 (+£16)
2017: 0-13 (-£0)
2016: 2-15 (+£4)
2015: 1-17 (-£4)
Following a rare blank for the yard at the 2017 meeting, Sir Michael Stoute hit back in style during the last two renewals, sending out six winners for a +£15 profit (6-27). His followers would have been on good terms with themselves following those results and no doubt looking forward to more of the same this time, especially if Frankie Dettori is booked to ride, as he was aboard both of Stoute’s winners here 12 months (from just three rides - the other, Rawdaa, finished runner-up). Both of last year’s winners also came in Group 2 events, and it indeed both the Group 2 and Group 3’s which proved profitable during the last 10 years here at 14-55 (+£28).
Best races: Hardwicke Stakes (11); King Edward VII Stakes (7); Duke of Edinburgh Stakes (5); Prince of Wales’s Stakes (4); King George V Stakes (4); Coronation Stakes (4); Queen’s Vase (4); Jersey Stakes (4); Windsor Forest Stakes (3); Ribblesdale Stakes (2); Wolferton Stakes (2); Queen of Alexandra Stakes (2); Tercentenary Stakes (2)
Positives:
Friday/Saturday (12-55 +£25)
1m4f (10-46 +£17)
Male (19-92 +£14)
Negatives:
Upped in trip from last time (5-58 -£31)
14-1 or bigger (0-28 -£28)
Tuesday (0-10 -£10)
Mark Johnston
Last five Royal Ascot’s:
2019: 2-28 (-£4)
2018: 2-24 (-£6)
2017: 2-22 (-£4)
2016: 0-20 (-£20)
2015: 2-20 (-£8)
Followers of patterns may have noticed that Mark Johnston recorded his seventh double during the last 10 years at Royal Ascot in 2019 - courtesy of both Baghdad and Raffle Prize hitting the target. Baghdad’s victory in the Duke of Edinburgh Stakes also made it a fourth win in the race for Johnston, just one behind his five winners in the King George V Stakes (Handicap). In keeping things simple with following Johnston, then the overall rule is sticking with the stable’s more fancied runners in the top half of the market at 18-1 or shorter.
Best races: Queen’s Vase (7); King George V Stakes (5); Duke of Edinburgh Stakes (4); Hardwicke Stakes (4); Ascot Gold Cup (3); Chesham Stakes (3); King Edward VII Stakes (3); Sandringham Handicap (2); Queen Alexandra Stakes (2)
Positives:
7-2 to 18-1: 15-89 (+£36)
Queen’s Vase: 7-30 (+£13)
French or German-bred: 4-15 (+£15)
Negatives:
20-1 or bigger: (0-121 -£121)
Tuesday: 1-25 (-£18)
Wesley Ward
Last five Royal Ascot’s:
2019: 0-7 (-£7)
2018: 1-9 (-£3)
2017: 2-10 (+£15)
2016: 1-6 (-£3)
2015: 2-9 (+£10)
Despite the Coronavirus epidemic, Wesley Ward is still hoping to send horses over to Ascot, where he has enjoyed amazing success down the years - his skill in sprints nearly saw a fourth Queen Mary 12 months when Kamari was runner-up. Frankie Dettori (2), Ryan Moore (1) and Jamie Spencer (1) partnered four of Ward’s winners, so it will be interesting to see who is booked this time around should the American jockeys not travel over. Although bookies have latched onto Ward’s talents, a profit was still returned by following his runners blind since 2010 at 8-58 (+£6).
Best races: Queen Mary Stakes (3 wins); Norfolk Stakes (2); Windsor Castle Stakes (2)
Positives:
Good to firm: 6-36 (+£19)
Negatives:
Stalls 1-5 (1-17 -£11)
Friday: 0-11 (-£11)
Charlie Appleby
Last five Royal Ascot’s:
2019: 3-22 (-£12)
2018: 2-20 (-£7)
2017: 2-23 (+£15)
2016: 1-20 (-£13)
2015: 1-9 (+£1)
Charlie Appleby’s winners here continue on the rise, including a treble in 2019 when Blue Point won the King’s Stand on the first day (5-2), before adding the Diamond Jubilee on the final day (6-4). Appleby’s progress for Godolphin hasn’t gone unnoticed by both bookies and punters, though, as the Newmarket handler showed an overall loss of -£34 at the meeting. One possible way of sticking on the right side of the yard is by avoiding runners from the list of negatives below - for instance, he has yet to strike with a female in 18 attempts, while those at 25-1 or bigger flopped on 20 occasions.
Best races: King’s Stand Stakes (2 wins)
Positives:
Same or upped one or two grades in class from last time: 9-66 (+£11)
Negatives:
Wednesday: 0-22 (-£22)
No win in last three runs: 0-21 (-£21) 4yo’s: 1-27 (-£20)
25-1 or bigger: 0-20 (-£20)
Females: 0-18 (-£18)
1m6f+: 0-14 (-£14)
BEST OF THE REST
You can’t keep that man, Willie Mullins, out of the limelight at big festivals, and he remains on the right side of profit at Ascot. Mullins may have missed the target 12 months ago, but he only sent four runners - two of which were runner-up (7-1) and third (10-3). The runner-up, Buildmeupbuttercup, came direct via the jumps, an approach that produced four of Mullins’ six Ascot winners (4-15 +£16), compared to the two winners that came via the Flat last time (2-19 -£11). Indeed, it is worth looking out for Irish raiders that hail from the following yards, as they proved more than capable of sending winners to Royal Ascot during the last 10 years, namely Dermot Weld (4-21 +£18), Edward Lynam (4-12 +£11) and David Marnane (2-11 +£40).
Be Wary Of…
Ralph Becket: 2-55
David Simcock: 2-61
Mick Channon: 2-97
Michael Bell: 1-52
JOCKEYS – THE BIG FIVE
Ryan Moore
Last five Royal Ascot’s:
2019: 5-29 (£0)
2018: 5-30 (-£9)
2017: 6-30 (-£1)
2016: 6-29 (-£7)
2015: 9-29 (+£30)
It was “Moore” of the same for the leading Royal Ascot jockey last year when leaving the meeting with another five winners. That haul made it six consecutive years in which Ryan Moore recorded a minimum of five winners at the fixture, and it doesn’t look like stopping. While the majority of his winners came for Aidan O’Brien for a small profit (26-127 +£3), his record for Willie Mullins reads more impressive at 5-12 (+£15), with four placed. Moore also teamed up with Mark Johnston on Baghdad to land his fourth Duke of Edinburgh Stakes, to go alongside his four wins in each of the Hardwicke and Queen’s Vase. Baghdad was also backed into favouritism - an area that pointed-up one of the main clues towards Moore’s best profits, as those priced 10-1 or shorter at Ascot struck at 50-216 (+£23), compared to those in the 11-1 or bigger bracket at 2-73 (-£45).
Best races (all-time): Queen’s Vase (4 wins); Hardwicke Stakes (4); Duke of Edinburgh Stakes (4); Ribblesdale Stakes (3); Ascot Stakes (3); Queen of Alexandra Stakes (3); Hampton Court Stakes (3); Chesham Stakes (3); Coventry Stakes (3)
Positives
10-1 or shorter (at Ascot) but lost last time: 24-112 (+£36)
Good to firm: 33-159 (+£21)
Arrived via the Newmarket Guineas meeting: 6-18 (+£14)
Round Course: 32-139 (+£11)
Negatives Good ground or softer (19-130 -£-41)
Frankie Dettori
Last five Royal Ascot’s:
2019: 7-27 (+£25)
2018: 4-23 (-£5)
2017: (Didn’t ride)
2016: 4-23 (-£1)
2015: 3-20 (+£5)
Ask any punter which jockey they'd want riding for them at Ascot and the majority may well reply “Frankie Dettori”. The popular Italian was the man of the meeting in 2019 when riding an astonishing seven-timer across the five days to put his followers +£25 in profit to level stakes. Clearly, there is still plenty to come from the 49-year-old, whose partnership with John Gosden shone down the years - the pair combined for six winners here during the last two renewals.
While Dettori rides winners here not matter what the situation thrown at him, it’s worth noting he boasts a particularly fine record in fields of up to nine runners at Royal Ascot. WIth less traffic in his way, Dettori struck at 9-30 (+£31).
Best races: Gold Cup (7); Ribblesdale Stakes (7); Queen Anne Stakes (6); Chesham Stakes (4); Sandringham Handicap (4); King Edward VII Stakes (4); Norfolk Stakes (4); Prince of Wales’s Stakes (4)
Positives:
Dettori rode last time: 16-79 (+49)
Group 1 and Group 2: 19-101 (+£27)
Good to soft/Soft ground: 13-50 (+£27)
17/2 or shorter: 23-103 (+£27)
Newmarket last time: 7-29 (+£24)
Negatives:
Handicaps: 3-53 (-£13)
10/1 or bigger: 3-96 (-£33)
William Buick
Last five Royal Ascot's:
2019: (Didn’t ride)
2018: 3-24 (-£6)
2017: 4-24 (+£23)
2016: 2-26 (-£11)
2015: 2-22 (-£5)
Having been sidelined at the 2019 meeting, William Buick will be keen to get back in the winner’s enclosure here - an area he visited in each of the previous eight years. While enjoying a good relationship with John Gosden during that time, Buick’s source of winners these days comes via Charlie Appleby, though a stronger clue involves runners he rode last time, as they hit the jackpot at Ascot to the tune of 20-112 (+£59).
Best races: King Edward VII Stakes (4); Tercentenary Stakes (2); Wolferton Stakes (2); Duke of Cambridge Stakes (2); Duke of Edinburgh Stakes (2)
Positives:
1m2f-1m4f: 12-59 (+£41)
8-14 runners: 15-75 (+£39)
Negatives:
22/1 or bigger: 0-45 (-£45)
James Doyle
Last five Royal Ascot’s:
2019: 3-27 (-£17)
2018: 2-22 (-£7)
2017: 2-22 (-£12)
2016: 1-21 (-£10)
2015: 1-27 (-£1)
Last year’s Ascot meeting went very well for James Doyle, as he left with his first treble since recording his first here in 2013. All three victories came for Charlie Appleby - when William Buick was absent - so he’ll need to do well in matching last year’s feat this time around, while punters should note Doyle didn’t record a level stakes profit during his last five visits to Royal Ascot.
Best races: Prince of Wales's Stakes (2); St. James's Palace Stakes (2)
Positives:
Wednesday (6-24 +£64)
1m-1m2f (7-49 +£37)
Negatives:
1m4f-2m5f: 1-44 (-£38)
Jamie Spencer
Last five Royal Ascot’s:
2019: 0-15 (-£15)
2018: 2-16 (-£3)
2017: 2-18 (+£29)
2016: 1-16 (-£8)
2015: 1-16 (-£12)
Jamie Spencer may not receive the quality Group 1 rides as in previous years, but there is no man currently in the weighing-room who knows how to ride the Ascot straight better than him - and he could be in for a bonanza this time around with additional races on the Straight Course taking place. True, the ice-cool Irishman blanked here in 2019, but only of his nine rides on the straight went off at single-odds, and he still finished third of 27 at 7-1 - he was also second of 28 at 16-1, and third at 14-1. Kept simply, backing Spencer each-way on the straight at this meeting during the last 10 years returned a level stakes profit of +£74. You have been warned!
Best races: Albany Stakes (4); Britannia Stakes (3); Sandringham Stakes (3); Coventry Stakes (2)
Positives:
Handicaps (6-62 +£19)
2-3yo’s (9-89 +£19)
Negatives:
Round Course: 3-75 (-£62)
BEST OF THE REST
It’s worth checking the market to see if Adam Kirby has a chance on a live runner at 20-1 or shorter, as he delivered on such runners here (7-54 +£25), while his partnership with Clive Cox also proved profitable (5-41 +£4). Both Andrea Atzeni and Silvestre De Sousa struck six times apiece at Royal Ascot. Atzeni recorded doubles in 2019 and 2018, and each of his six winners returned at 14-1 or shorter, while De Sousa did best away from Group races at 5-55 (+£12).
Think twice about backing an apprentice jockey, however, as they struck just twice for a huge loss (2-146 -£128).
Headgear
While the application of headgear can sometimes be deemed a negative, there were plenty of Royal Ascot victors that entered the winner’s enclosure supporting the desired equipment which kept them focused on track.
Blinkers: 13-262 (5%) -£136
Cheekpieces: 18-314 (6%) -£117
Hood: 10-136 (7%) -£6
Visor: 2-99 (2%) -£60
The application of a hood seemed most effective, more so when a hood was applied for the first time in the UK, as they struck at 5-30 (+£20) - both John Gosden and Willie Mullins used this tactic with Monarchs Glen (8/1) and Lagostovegcas (10/1) respectively, in recent years.
Penalties in handicaps
It's difficult enough winning a race at Royal Ascot, let alone with extra weight. The stats confirm such a task too, as only three triumphed from the 45 that attempted the feat since 2010:
3lb: 0-1 (-£1) 4lb: 1-4 (+£9) 5lb: 1-36 (-£25)
The latest to try and carry the extra weight was Danzeno, who managed a creditable third in the Wokingham having won at Nottingham earlier in the month.
ASCOT SPECIALISTS
There are certain horses who produce their very best at certain tracks, whether it’s because the course is local to their yard, or that the configurations suits their style of running. Ascot is no different, as there were plenty of horses who turned up the heat when setting foot on the famous track, including the following names who, if still in training, should be noted at the 2020 renewal.
Blue Point - 5 wins 1 placed from 6 runs
Raising Sand - 4 wins 4 placed from 14 runs
Cape Byron - 4 wins 1 placed from 8 runs
Stradivarius - 4 wins 0 placed from 6 runs
Moonraker - 3 wins 1 placed from 11 runs
Liberia Breeze - 3 wins 1 placed from 9 runs
The Tin Man - 3 wins 0 placed from 10 runs
Addeybb - 2 wins 1 placed from 4 runs
Lord Glitters - 2 wins 3 placed from 7 runs
Accidental Agent - 2 wins 1 placed from 8 runs
Texting - 2 wins from 3 runs
Ripp Orf - 2 wins 4 placed from 8 runs
Sextant - 2 wins 1 placed from 4 runs
Tis Marvellous - 2 wins 2 placed from 7 runs
Tabarrak - 2 wins 1 from 5 runs
Normandy Barriere - 2 wins 4 placed from 13 runs
Crystal Ocean - 2 wins 4 placed from 6 runs
Louie de Palma - 2 wins 1 placed from 5 runs
Pallasator - 2 wins 2 placed from 8 runs
Cleonte - 2 wins 0 placed from 7 runs Erissimus Maximus - 2 wins 0 placed from 4 runs
Intense Romance - 2 wins 0 placed from 3 runs
Cliffs Of Capri - 2 wins 0 placed from 4 runs
Tureen Star - 2 wins 0 placed from 7 runs
FORM & TRIALS
This year’s Royal Ascot will be like no other. Not only will there de a lack of well-dressed racegoers at the five-day meeting, but also a lack of form for punters to study, courtesy of Flat racing having only returned on 1 June. Relying on trials and stepping-stones traditionally used for Ascot won’t be as straightforward this year, especially as the English, Irish and French Guineas all took place within a 12-day period, with the Irish versions staged just a few days before Ascot gets underway. Some horses may be able to handle a quick turnaround, but others could “bounce” from their reappearance outing, suggesting punters should tread carefully when contemplating runners to have already raced this season.
THE DRAW
Punters who enjoy big-field puzzles to solve at Royal Ascot are in for a betting bonanza this year, as a number of additional races such as the Royal Hunt Silver Cup and Wokingham Silver Stakes have been added to the schedule. With such races set to be staged on the famous Straight Course - where a maximum of 24 runners will be allowed to line-up - the draw will again have a massive say.
Big-priced winners During the last 10 years, there were 34 winners priced at 20-1 or bigger at Royal Ascot. At first, that may offer hope of hitting it big, but considering 2466 runners were required to trigger those 34 winners - in other words, a 1% strike-rate (-£1598) - it is clear how difficult the task was. Trying to break down the stats and highlight areas in which to seek big-hitting opportunities was no easy task either, though it could help to concentrate the areas in which the majority of big-priced winners at 20-1 or bigger appeared:
20-1 to 33-1: 34-1394 (2.44%), compared to 40-1 or bigger: 0-1072 (0%)
15-29 runners: 31-1828 (1.7% -£1028), compared to 14 runners or less: 3-546 (0.55%)
3-6yo’s: 27-1636 (1.65% -£925), compared to other ages: 7-830 (0.84%)
Day two onwards: 30-1961 (1.53% -£1190), compared to day one: 4-505 (0.79%)
First to fifth in previous three runs: 34-2350 (1.45%), compared to sixth or worse: 0-116 (0%)
Not upped in trip by 2.5f or more from last time: 30-2132 (1.41%), compared to rest 1-220 (0.45%)
Placepot
The Placepot offers tremendous value for a bet that can last the entire card, while possibly triggering a juicy dividend without having to find a winner! If that sounds tempting, then the Placepot could be worth a punt, especially as the average payout at Royal Ascot during the last five years was over £700.
Day one: £580 - £2,147 - £585 - £1,219 - £175 (average £941)
Day two: £890 - £151 - £157 - £165 - £301 (average £332)
Day three: £353 - £482 - £447 - £299 - £122 (average £340)
Day four: £173 - £403 - £49 - £1,251 - £139 (average £403)
Day five: £25 - £2,398 - £163 - £1,080 - £4,385 (average £1,610)
There were certain days that traditionally paid out lower dividends in contrast to day one and the final day, which both paid higher returns - Tuesday paid a minimum of £580 during the last five years. Last year also showed that when soft ground was around during the first three days, shock results occurred and bigger dividends were paid, compared to when the ground dried out during the last two days and the form and results became more predictable, resulting in lower dividends. Long term, both the first and final days (Tuesday and Saturday) produced big payouts, but it’s worth noting the schedule has changed this year and some days will be different - for instance, the Coventry has been switched from Tuesday to Saturday. It’s hard to know whether dividends will increase or decrease on those days, but here is a guide for three of the five days which could pay the biggest - good luck ‘Potting!
Day One - Tuesday
1:15 Buckingham Palace Stakes (Handicap)
Of the 40 placed runners from 2005-2014 (reintroduced this year)…
40 were males
36 were officially rated 90-103
33 ran over 5f-7f last time
25 were drawn in the highest half of the draw
Placed runners breakdown of odds: 15/2 or shorter: 5-20
8/1 to 16/1: 19-77
18/1 to 33/1: 11-103
40/1 or bigger: 5-61
Favourites/joint place record: 3-13
Second-favourites place record: 2-9
Tip: Look for value in the 8/1 to 16/1 bracket.
1:50 Queen Anne Stakes
Of the 29 placed runners during the last 10 years…
25 were 4-5yo’s
25 ran over the same trip or were dropped in trip from last time
24 were Irish/British-bred
21 ran in a Group 1 last time
14 arrived via Newbury (14) 5 were trained by A O Brien (5-13); 4 by F Head (4-5); 3 by A Balding (3-7)
Placed runners breakdown of odds:
11/4 or shorter: 6-11
3/1 to 6/1: 5-16
7/1 to 20/1: 13-48
22/1 or bigger: 4-44
Favourites/joint place record: 7-11
Second-favourites place record: 6-12
Tip: Well-fancied runners came out best.
2:25 Ribblesdale Stakes
Of the 30 placed runners during the last 10 years…
26 ran in a Group/Listed race last time
25 had 3-6 career runs
19 were officially rated 19-51 (37%) - others were 11-64 (17%)
J Gosden had 8 placed (8-23); A O’Brien had 5 (5-17); Sir M Stoute had 4 (4-8); J Bolger had 2 (2-2)
Placed runners breakdown of odds:
9/2 or shorter: 15-23
5/1 to 11/1: 8-28
12/1 to 20/1: 6-32
22/1 or bigger: 1-32
Favourites/joint place record: 8-11
Second-favourites place record: 6-11
Tip: Side with the classier runners officially rated 100+.
3:00 King Edward VII Stakes
Of the 28 placed runners during the last 10 years…
26 avoided the lowest quarter of the draw
26 had a 25% or higher strike-rate 22 ran over 1m2f or 1m4f last time
19 made the top three last time
7 were trained by A O’Brien (7-15); J Gosden had 6-12; Sir M Stoute had 4-7; M Johnston had 2-4; A Balding had 2-3.
Placed runners breakdown of odds:
3/1 or shorter: 6-10
7/2 to 13/2: 7-21
7/1 to 14/1: 13-34
Favourites/joint place record: 6-10
Second-favourites place record: 5-11
Tip: Look for value in the 7/1 to 14/1 range.
3:35 King’s Stand Stakes
Of the 30 placed runners during the last 10 years…
23 were 4-6yo’s
23 ran in a Group race last time
20 either won or were beaten 1-2l last time
20 were officially rated 113 or higher
Placed runners breakdown of odds:
6/1 or shorter: 14-26
13/2 to 12/1: 5-30
14/1 to 20/1: 7-31
22/1 or bigger: 4-79
Favourites/joint place record: 4-11
Second-favourites place record: 6-9
Tip: Fancied runners did well.
4:10 Duke of Cambridge Stakes
Of the 29 placed runners during the last 10 years…
27 were officially rated 104-117
26 were Irish/British-bred
24 ran over 1m-1m1f last time
22 ran in a Group 2 or Group 3 last time
Sir M Stoute had 4 placed (4-9); J Fanshawe had 2-5; A Fabre had 2-3; S Bin Suroor had 2-7; J Gosden had 2-5; M Botti had 2-3
Placed runners breakdown of odds:
9/2 or shorter: 13-21
5/1 to 11/1: 9-31
12/1 to 25/1: 6-36
28/1 or bigger: 1-33
Favourites/joint place record: 5-10
Second-favourites place record: 8-10
Tip: Avoid runners stepping up from 7f
Day Two - Wednesday
1:15 Silver Royal Hunt Cup
New race, no stats available.
1:50 Hampton Court Stakes
Of the 30 placed runners from 2010 to 2019…
27 made their Ascot debuts
26 were officially rated 101-114
25 won during their last three runs
22 ran in a Group 3/Listed or Class 2 race last time 22 came from the lowest half of the draw
16 were British-bred (33%) - others were 19%
Placed runners breakdown of odds:
5/1 or shorter: 13-24
11/2 to 11/1: 11-32
12/1 to 20/1: 6-37
22/1 or bigger: 0-30
Favourites/joint place record: 7-11
Second-favourites place record: 4-11
Tip: Ignore runners drawn very high.
2:25 King George V Stakes (Handicap)
Of the 40 placed runners from 2010 to 2019…
35 made the top three last time
34 won 0-1 handicaps
33 were officially rated 85-95
33 won during their last three runs
28 came from the highest half of the draw
M Johnston had 5 placed (5-31); A O’Brien had 4-11; C Appleby had 3-8; S Bin Suroor had 3-6; Sir M Stoute had 3-9
Placed runners breakdown of odds:
9/2 or shorter: 5-15
5/1 to 9/1: 14-28
10/1 to 20/1: 18-95
22/1 or bigger: 6-57
Favourites/joint place record: 4-12
Second-favourites place record: 4-10
Tip: Look for value in the 5/1 to 9/1 bracket.
3:00 Prince of Wales’s Stakes
Of the 27 placed runners from 2010 to 2019…
25 were 4-5yo’s
22 were officially rated 117-130
22 made the top two last time out
21 won over 1m2f
14 were drawn in stalls 6, 7, 8 & 9
A O’Brien had 6 placed (6-13); Sir M Stoute had 4-8
Placed runners breakdown of odds:
9/2 or shorter: 15-18
5/1 to 17/2: 8-19
9/1 to 18/1: 3-21
20/1 or bigger: 1-29
Favourites/joint place record: 7-10
Second-favourites place record: 9-10
Tip: Second favourites boast a solid record.
3:35 Royal Hunt Cup
Of the 40 placed runners from 2010 to 2019…
33 were officially rated 97-109
31 were drawn in stalls 10-26
30 ran in a handicap last time
J Gosden had 3 placed (3-10); J Osborne had 3-7; C Hills had 2-4; B Ellison had 2-5; S Bin Suroor had 2-7; C Appleby had 2-6; H Morrison had 2-4
Blinkered runners did well, being placed at 7-26
Runners that were 9/4 or shorter last time were placed at just 1-24
Placed runners breakdown of odds:
15/2 or shorter: 1-11
8/1 to 14/1: 13-59
16/1 to 33/1: 20-150
40/1 or bigger: 6-68
Favourites/joint place record: 1-13
Second-favourites place record: 3-11
Tip: Stick with runners drawn down the middle.
4:10 Windsor Castle Stakes
Of the 30 placed runners from 2010 to 2019…
29 were British or Irish-bred
28 were males
28 made the top four in the UK last time out
13 came from stalls 20-28
A O’Brienhad 4 placed (4-11); R Fahey had 3-11; C Appleby had 2-3 ; S Bin Suroor 2-4; K Ryan had 2-4; K Dalgleish had 2-2
Placed runners breakdown of odds:
13/2 or shorter: 6-22
7/1 to 11/1: 3-29
12/1 to 25/1: 19-74
28/1 or bigger: 2-104
Favourites/joint place record: 4-11
Second-favourites place record: 2-11
Tip: Look for a bargain in the 12/1 to 25/1 range
Final Day - Saturday
12:40 Silver Wokingham StakesNew race, no stats available
1:15 Queen Mary Stakes
Of the 30 placed runners during the last 10 years…
28 ran over 4.5f-5f last time
27 had a 50% or better win career record 27 were drawn in stalls 1-8 or 16 and higher - avoid stalls 9-15
25 either won or arrived from abroad last time
W Ward had 5 placed (5-10); R Hannon had 2-7; C Cox had 2-5
Placed runners breakdown of odds:
9/2 or shorter: 9-12
5/1 to 11/1: 10-37
12/1 or bigger: 11-161
Favourites/joint place record: 3-10
Second-favourites place record: 6-11
Tip: Avoid stalls 9-15 and those who ran over 5.5f-6f last time
1:50 Coronation Stakes
Of the 29 placed runners during the last 10 years…
26 were officially rated 104 to 118
21 were Irish (18-57) or French-bred (3-6)
17 came from the highest half of the draw
A O’Brien had 6 placed (6-15); J-C Rouget had 3-3; J Bolger had 2-4; Sir M Stoute had 2-6; J Gosden had 2-9
Placed runners breakdown of odds:
6/1 or shorter: 15-30
13/2 to 11/1: 6-19
12/1 to 25/1: 7-43
28/1 or bigger: 1-22
Favourites/joint place record: 6-11
Second-favourites place record: 5-11
Tip: Respect runners from Ireland and France.
2:25 Coventry Stakes
Of the 30 placed runners during the last 10 years…
29 won last time
26 ran in a maiden or Listed race last time 17 marginally held the call from the highest half of the draw
A O’Brien had 9 placed (9-19); R Hannon had 3-10; G Lyons had 2-2; M Johnston had 2-14
Placed runners breakdown of odds:
9/2 or shorter: 11-16
5/1 to 11/1: 11-33
12/1 to 22/1: 7-45
25/1 or bigger: 1-87
Favourites/joint place record: 6-11
Second-favourites place record: 6-9
Tip: Stick with winning maiden or Listed form last time out.
3:00 St James’s Palace Stakes
Of the 27 placed runners during the last 10 years…
25 avoided the third highest quarter of stalls (i.e. 7,8, 9 in a field of 12) 24 were officially rated 111 or higher
23 were British or Irish-bred
23 ran over 7f-1m or further last time
21 either won or were beaten under 4l last time
19 ran in a Group 1 last time
A O’Brien had 7 placed (7-21); J Gosden had 5-9; R Hannon had 2-4
Placed runners breakdown of odds:
9/4 or shorter: 7-8
5/2 to 6/1: 8-19
13/2 to 14/1: 9-25
16/1 or bigger: 3-39
Favourites/joint place record: 8-11
Second-favourites place record: 4-9
Tip: Stick with classy runners officially rated 111 or higher.
3:35 Diamond Jubilee Stakes
Of the 30 placed runners during the last 10 years…
26 were 3-5yo’s
26 avoided the lowest quarter of stalls
26 ran over 5f-6f last time
22 had 0-1 previous runs at Ascot
18 ran in a Group 1 or Group 2 race last time
17 were officially rated 116-132
J Fanshawe had 4 placed (4-8), A O’Brien had 3-9, H Candy had 2-4, W Ward had 2-4
Placed runners breakdown of odds:
5/1 or shorter: 13-21
11/2 to 10/1: 4-26
11/1 to 25/1: 10-61
28/1 or bigger: 3-50
Favourites/joint place record: 7-12
Second-favourites place record: 5-9
Tip: Steer clear of runners in the lowest part of the draw.