Royal Ascot 2020: Simon Rowlands's analysis and selections for Thursday

Simon Rowlands tipped up 14-1 winner Hukum on Wednesday and has three selections plus analysis online for Thursday at Royal Ascot.

The vagaries of the British weather will not have been far from the minds of most punters this week and seem particularly relevant when considering Thursday’s card at Royal Ascot. Conditions were by no means testing on the first two days but some localised downpours are predicted for Wednesday night and Thursday.

If those downpours arrive at Ascot, they could change the nature of the Gold Cup (3:35) drastically. The admirable Stradivarius – going for his third successive win in this race – copes with soft ground but is a quickener rather than a grinder as stayers go.

On a number of occasions, he has got down to nearly 11.0s furlongs – something which other stayers simply cannot match – most recently when third to Ghaiyyath in a 12f Coronation Cup diverted from Epsom to Newmarket less than two weeks ago.

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Stradivarius is a very good stayer, of that there is no doubt, but his rivals have regularly played to his sit-and-sprint strengths over the years. That may change here.

Both Withhold and Moonlight Spirit tend to get on with things, and the latter may in part ensure that his stable-companion Cross Counter does not fall foul of a tactical event as happened when he was a close-but-never-nearer fourth in this 12 months ago.

Cross Counter seems not quite as good as he once was, and may be a two-miler in any case, but there is one horse in this field that will relish the two and a half miles and any rain, and that is TECHNICIAN.

It is not that Technician must have it soft – he finished sixth in the latest St Leger on good to firm – but it very much plays to his long suit of stamina, as he showed by winning Group races at Longchamp after that Doncaster run, notably the Prix Royal-Oak from the top French stayer Call The Wind.

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Technician can take a bit of winding up, but jockey Oisin Murphy will know that, and the pair have two and a half miles this time to get into overdrive. On soft ground he would deserve to be something like 3/1, on good to firm something like the 7/1 he was earlier this week. There is more upside than downside, the way I see it.

The mathematics of this 8-runner race with an odds-on favourite make it especially appealing from an each-way point of view (110% win book, just 89% place book, at the time of writing), so the advice is to back Technician in that manner: let’s hope that rain does arrive.

If it does it could spell bad news for supporters of Molatham in the preceding Jersey Stakes (2:25), as the colt bombed out on soft on his final start at two years.

He would be pretty interesting otherwise, even against rivals as good asKing Leonidas, Monarch of Egypt and the French Guineas fourth Celestin, as he was good enough to beat Wichita at Doncaster as a juvenile. But there is less leeway in his price and a bigger downside for his prospects, so that makes this a no-bet race for me.

The remainder of day three at Royal Ascot is a mix of Listed Races and Handicaps, all of them ultra-competitive, of course.

Well, the Britannia Handicap (4:10) and the Sandringham Handicap (4:40) could be thus described were it not for the presence of a couple of handicap “good things”.

African Dream (20 lb well in?) at a very short price makes the latter unplayable to me, but FINEST SOUND (just the 14 lb well in?) still looks eminently backable in the former.

Finest Sound’s win at this one-mile trip at Haydock 10 days ago came in a decent time, with excellent late sectionals (35.25s for the last 3f) and with a good deal of ease by five and a half lengths. A 5 lb penalty should be insufficient, though it has to be admitted that he is far from the only well-treated horse in this 24-runner field.

The opening Golden Gates Handicap at 1:15 is a tough puzzle to crack, but it is another good each-way race (18 runners and four places at the time of writing) and I reckon it is worth having a stab with CEPHEUS at long odds.

He quickened smartly to beat the useful Volkan Star at Newmarket on his debut and was out of his depth and out the back in the 2000 Guineas on the same course on his only start since. A mark of 87 could well underestimate him, and this son of Sea The Stars should stay this 10f no problem.

The problem with the Listed Wolferton Stakes at 1:50 is that the best horses – Eclipse third Regal Reality, Champion Stakes fourth Fox Tal and Derby fifth Sir Dragonet – may be better another day but collectively look priced about right. This looks a race best watched as a result.

As does the Listed Chesham Stakes at 3:00, in which each of the nine two-year-olds has raced just once and could still be described as promising.

SIMON'S BEST BETS (SCALE 1-5 POINTS)

1:15 ROYAL ASCOT – GOLDEN GATES HANDICAP
0.5 pt each-way CEPHEUS (25-1 Coral, 20-1 bet365, Betfred, Boylesports, Skybet)

3:35 ROYAL ASCOT – GOLD CUP
1 pt each-way TECHNICIAN (11-2 general)

4:10 ROYAL ASCOT – BRITANNIA HANDICAP
1 pt win FINEST SOUND (5-1 bet365, 9-2 Betfred, Coral, Ladbrokes, 4-1 Bet Victor, Sky Bet)