Royal Ascot 2020: Simon Rowlands's analysis and selections for Friday

Simon Rowlands tipped up 14-1 winner Hukum on Wednesday and has two selections plus analysis for Friday at Royal Ascot.

In a recent series of Timeform Q&As with former employees of the long-established horseracing-analytics company, intended to alleviate some of the boredom of lockdown and possibly to massage the egos of those involved, ex-staffer after ex-staffer queued up to tell the reader(s?) that the effect of the going was over-rated by professionals and public alike.

Fortunately, I went last, so decided not to beat that particular drum despite agreeing with the principle. As a result, the fact that you find me now, in the second half of Royal Ascot 2020, as a Born-Again Going Believer should not appear particularly inconsistent.

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The heavy rain on Wednesday night and Thursday morning undoubtedly changed the dynamics of races and not just the going, which had been on the firm side of good on the first two days judged on times but was close to “soft” by the start of day three.

Stamina matters more now, for a starter, and apparent biases on the straight course may be eradicated or even turned on their heads.

The Group 1 Commonwealth Cup at 3:35 on Friday was always going to be run over a stiff 6f but now promises to be quite a test for the sprinters. That should play to the advantage of some and against others.

I reckon it would have to the advantage of Wooded, who is now a non-runner but would have been my selection. He coped magnificently with top of the ground and 6f in winning the Prix Texanita at Chantilly in May in a fast time, had raced at 7f previously and won a maiden at Deauville on a rain-softened surface.

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He is fast, just not burn-himself-out fast. I would have had him at around 9/2.

Mums Tipple and Pierre Lapin are unknown under these conditions, and the former hardly promised a lot when down the back in the 2000 Guineas anyway, a bit like Millisle in mid-division in the 1000. Golden Horde copes, and comes into the reckoning, but will be making his reappearance from a stable in just so-so form.

Anthony Van Dyck has gone from forgotten Derby hero to short-priced favourite for the Group 2 Hardwicke Stakes at 3:00 as a result of a strong-finishing second to course-record-smashing Ghaiyyath at Newmarket recently, and with some reason.

He coped well enough with good to soft going when winning the Lingfield Derby Trial last year but his best efforts have been on quicker. More than anything, though, Anthony Van Dyck looks too short for this given the quality of his opposition.

Elarqam will be many people’s idea of the one to depose him, having received a poor ride, in my view, when beaten by Lord North at Haydock recently. Lord North won the Prince of Wales’s Stakes here on Wednesday, no less, and Elarqam certainly has the quality to win at this grade.

I am not convinced he will have the stamina, however, at least with conditions more testing than they might have been. He strides slower now than he once did, just not quite as slow as a staying-12f type.

One who just can’t get enough of the soft stuff is MORANDO, who won easily at Chester (by eight lengths from Kew Gardens) and at this course and distance in the mud last year.

He could finish only fourth to Defoe (goes again, but is not in the same form currently) in this race last year but is likely to be transformed by conditions. Trainer Andrew Balding has hit the ground running since resumption. Morando should be around 7/2, to me, and rates a decent bet.

For a third bet, head to the Queen’s Vase at 4:10, in which BORN WITH PRIDE ticks the boxes. She looked a potential star when beating the subsequent Irish 1000 Guineas winner Peaceful and the recent good listed winner Run Wild in the mud at Newmarket on her debut, and her recent defeat in the Classic Trial at Kempton can be easily excused.

She really is a slow-striding staying type, and she switched off too much mid-race at Kempton, where the sharp inner track made it very difficult for her to get back into what had been a steadily run race. A longer trip, softer going, and a more galloping track, should all help a filly who I would have around 5/2.

It may be worth looking for a hold-up horse in the Palace of Holyroodhouse Handicap at 1:15 as there promises to be an awful lot of early pace even by 5f standards. It is also possible that softer ground will have blunted the speed of Flying Aletha in the Albany Stakes at 1:50 and the track-record-breakers (on much firmer) Eye of Heaven and The Lir Jet in the Norfolk Stakes at 2:25.

They are races I am leaving alone, as is the concluding Duke of Edinburgh Handicap at 4:40.

SIMON'S BEST BETS (SCALE 1-5 POINTS)

3:00 ROYAL ASCOT – HARDWICKE STAKES
1 pt each-way MORANDO (6-1 bet365, Betfred, Boylesports, Coral, Skybet)

4:10 ROYAL ASCOT – QUEEN’S VASE
1 pt win BORN WITH PRIDE (3-1 BetVictor Betfair Sportsbook, Paddy Power, William Hill)