Royal Ascot 2020: Simon Rowlands’s analysis and plays for Tuesday

Welcome to Royal Ascot 2020, a Royal Ascot like none before and one hopes like none to come.

Gone are the vast crowds, as this year’s event will be run behind closed doors, gone are the pageantry and fancy dress as a result, and gone are the ceremonials and forelock tugging associated with the family responsible for the “Royal” aspect of the meeting.

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But here still, most importantly, are the world-class races, world-class horses, and world-class jockeys and trainers, which have meant that racing fans have happily put up with the off-course distractions for many years.

Indeed, there is even more of a good thing in terms of the number of races across the five days this year, for all that the “international” aspect of the occasion is understandably reduced.

We start on Tuesday, earlier in the day than usual at 1:15, with a seven-race card which includes two Group 1s and three Group 2s.

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The Queen Anne Stakes at 1:50 is one of those Group 1s and is more open than the betting might suggest for a 16-runner field. Circus Maximus, winner of the St James’s Palace Stakes here 12 months ago, is understandably favourite and Terebellum, of whom more a bit later, is less obviously second favourite.

That leaves some talented individuals at much bigger odds, not least MUSTASHRY, who has the form to be a fraction of his early odds if fit. That is an unknown, but trainer Sir Michael Stoute has hit the ground running since resumption so there is every reason to view the gelding’s prospects favourably.

Mustashry won the Lockinge Stakes at Newbury in 2019, as well as a Group 2 at Newmarket under a penalty, returning one of the best timefigures of the entire year in the former.

He came only seventh as second favourite in this race 12 months ago but that wasn’t his running. The Mustashry who dismissed Limato from the front at Newmarket subsequently over the latter’s best trip is who I am hoping will turn up here. If so, his odds are too generous.

The other Group 1, the King’s Stand Stakes at 3:35, throws up a fascinating conundrum. Battaash is probably the fastest thoroughbred in the world on his day, but his day does not always come around.

He has not been seen since running abysmally in the Prix de l’Abbaye de Longchamp in October and he has twice been beaten in this race for no reason other than that Ascot’s stiff track does not play to the strengths of one who has shown himself to be capable of breaking 10 seconds for a furlong, on the bridle, and of running faster than the mighty Dayjur did on York’s pancake-flat five furlongs.

The only rival up to troubling him on a good day looks to be GLASS SLIPPERS, who won that Abbaye by a wide margin (in sprinting terms) of three lengths. Her elevation to the upper echelons of sprinters makes a lot more sense if you consider that she had few attempts at the minimum trip before that Parisian stroll.

The way to tackle this, in my opinion, is to back Glass Slippers each way, taking a small loss if she places and a nice profit if she wins. In mathematical terms, this is a very good race in which to back each way, even at shorter odds, and the fact that your bookmaker may not like you doing so with Glass Slippers tells you plenty in itself.

If you fancy the aforementioned Terebellum to go close in the Queen Anne then you really should fancy QUEEN POWER to do likewise in the Duke of Cambridge Stakes at 4:10. The two ran against each other in the Dahlia Fillies’ Stakes at Newmarket recently, and Terebellum came out on top, but not by much, and with her rival getting less of the run of the race than did she.

In a slowly run race, Queen Power came from out the back to throw down a challenge but was held by the very smart winner near the end. That form gives Queen Power leading claims in similar company, providing she can cope with the return to a mile, and the speed she showed that day – including a sub-11.0s furlong from 3f out to 2f out – suggests it may even help her.

Her odds reflect the fact that the stable has another good candidate for this in Jubiloso, third in the Coronation Stakes here 12 months ago and the subject of favourable recent reports. But Queen Power’s form is at least equal and she has the crucial benefit of that good recent run.

Neither the Ribblesdale Stakes at 2:25 nor the King Edward VII Stakes at 3:00 looks quite up to its usual standard, but we should learn plenty from them, including perhaps about Oaks and Derby contenders.

Simon's Best Bets (scale 1-5 points)

1:50 ROYAL ASCOT – QUEEN ANNE STAKES 0.5 pt win MUSTASHRY (14-1 general)

3:35 ROYAL ASCOT – KING’S STAND STAKES 1pt each-way GLASS SLIPPERS (5-1 William Hill, 9-2 general)

4:10 ROYAL ASCOT – DUKE OF CAMBRIDGE STAKES 1pt win QUEEN POWER (7-1 bet365, Betfair Sportsbook, Betfred, Ladbrokes, Paddy Power)

I am not averse to tackling big-field handicaps at Royal Ascot, but the two that bookend proceedings on Tuesday look tougher than most. The five days of Royal Ascot represent a marathon not a sprint: let’s pace ourselves accordingly.