Robb could set up for Winston's Chance

OZONE PARK, N.Y. – The horses who figure to take the most money in Saturday’s $100,000 Alex M. Robb Stakes at Aqueduct have the same front-running style. The 1 1/8-mile race for New York-breds might be ripe for an upset from an off-the-pace runner, and Winston’s Chance just might be the right one.

Mr. Buff, a winner of two straight, and Control Group, a graded stakes winner and defending Alex Robb winner, are the likely favorites. But their success has been predicated on getting to the front early in a race. With the speedy Black Tide entered in this field, Mr. Buff and Control Group are unlikely to make the front, or at least unlikely to have it to themselves. Add Hit It Once More to the mix and the pace figures to be hotly contested.

Though he has yet to face Mr. Buff, Winston’s Chance has been competitive with several of the others in this field. He beat Control Group at Finger Lakes in 2017 and was beaten a neck by him at Finger Lakes in July.

“I think he’ll hold his own in there,” said Ronald Breed, assistant to his wife, Debra. “He won at Saratoga going long.”

Winston’s Chance has won at five distances, including going 1 1/8 miles at Saratoga. Ironically, he was on the lead that day. In back-to-back allowance wins going two turns at Finger Lakes in 2017, Winston’s Chance did come from off the pace.

Harry Hernandez rides Winston’s Chance from the rail.

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Control Group began 2018 with a four-length front-running victory in the Alex Robb, a race that was delayed multiple times due to weather-related cancellations or insufficient entries.

Most recently, Control Group finished third in the off-the-turf Red Smith, fading late after chasing the early pace. Trainer Rudy Rodriguez said he’ll leave race tactics on Saturday up to Manny Franco, who rides Control Group from post 6.

“We’ll see how they break and take it from there,” Rodriguez said. “I’m definitely not looking to take the speed away from him.”

In a two-week span, Mr. Buff won two open-company allowance races going 1 1/8 miles over Aqueduct’s main track. He was third in the Empire Classic after chasing the early pace. David Cohen rides Mr. Buff for trainer John Kimmel from post 2.

Trainer Gary Sciacca has the uncoupled entry of Hit It Once More, who figures to be on the lead, and the late-running Testosterstone, who is wheeling back 13 days after pulling a 24-1 upset in a statebred second-level allowance from off the pace.

Twisted Tom, who has yet to regain his top 3-year-old form of a year ago, and the stakes-winning sprinter Caledonian complete the field.

The Robb goes as race 8 on a nine-race card that begins at 12:20 p.m. Eastern and includes the $100,000 East View for New York-bred 2-year-old fillies.