Road to the Derby: Jerome Stakes analysis

Listed, $150,000 Jerome Stakes, one mile, Aqueduct, Jan. 1, 2020

(10 Derby qualifying points for a win, 3 each for the dead-heat for second, 1 for fourth)

Winner: Independence Hall, by Constitution

Trainer: Michael Trombetta

Jockey: Jose Ortiz

Owners: Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners, Kathleen and Robert Verratti, and Twin Creeks Racing

Beyer Speed Figure: 83

The first points-scoring race of the year saw INDEPENDENCE HALL remain unbeaten in his third start, but the race proved little, as he got a tepid Beyer Figure while beating horses far inferior to what he will have to face moving on toward the Kentucky Derby. The race’s second choice, Bourbon Bay, was coming off a maiden win in which he got a Beyer Figure of 68.

This was a means to an end for Independence Hall. More stern tests await, as do two turns; all his races have been around one turn.

Points in his favor are that he overcame significant behavioral issues in the paddock and a slow start to prevail. Points against him are that he continues to have pre-race behavioral issues, and continues to break slowly.

In this race, Independence Hall broke last in the field of six, then was angled outside horses and immediately progressed to a forward position. Considering who he was running against, the slow start might have afforded an opportunity for some education behind runners – something he might need down the line -- but the decision was made to ride him like he was the best horse and keep him in the clear throughout. In fact, all six runners were kept off the rail for the most part. He raced outside of 75-1 shot DUBAI BOBBY down the backstretch, took the lead while in the three path entering the far turn, had a clear lead around the far turn, shook off bids from PRINCE OF PHAROAHS and BOURBON BAY in upper stretch, and was under steady encouragement all the way to the wire.

Prince of Pharoahs and Bourbon Bay dead-heated for second.

Prince of Pharaohs broke sharply and was just inside of Dubai Bobby early, then dropped back to fourth after exiting the chute. He followed Dubai Bobby to the far turn, was angled to the two to three path entering the far turn to go around CELTIC STRIKER, loomed a threat inside of Independence Hall in upper stretch, but lost ground the final furlong.

Bourbon Bay, starting from the outside post, had no early speed and dropped back to last the opening furlong, crept closer nearing the far turn, followed Independence Hall on the far turn, switched outside of the winner in upper stretch, was asked for his best, but could not keep up.

Celtic Striker, who was fourth, broke sharply, was right behind Dubai Bobby early then had Independence Hall go past him on his outside, raced between Independence Hall and Dubai Bobby initially on the far turn, began to yield midway on the far turn, dropped down to the rail entering the lane and continued to steadily fade.

POLAR BEAR PETE, who was fifth, tossed his head about in the initial strides while sucking back and was fifth a furlong into the race, then was at the rear of the field midway through the race, between Prince of Pharaohs and Bourbon Bay. He had those rivals leave him three furlongs out, and was badly outrun the rest of the way.

Dubai Bobby, who finished last of six, led narrowly down the backstretch with Independence Hall stalking him, was urged along preceding the half-mile pole, began to weaken shortly after passing the half-mile pole, and dropped back to be beaten more than 30 lengths.