Road to the Derby: El Camino Real Derby analysis

$101,800 El Camino Real Derby; 1 1/8 miles (synthetic); Golden Gate Fields; Feb. 16, 2019
(10 Derby qualifying points for a win, 4 for second, 2 for third, 1 for fourth)

Winner: Anothertwistafate, by Scat Daddy
Trainer: Blaine Wright
Jockey: Juan Hernandez
Owner: Peter Redekop B.C. Ltd.
Beyer Speed Figure: 94

There are a lot of things to consider about this race. The most obvious is that it’s run on a synthetic surface, and since the only time ANOTHERTWISTAFATE ran on dirt he was well beaten, he’ll need to prove he more’s than a synthetic freak. We know he’s at least that, as he’s won all three of his starts on synthetic by a combined 16 lengths, including a seven-length romp here. On a surface that usually brings horses together, he’s recorded three runaway wins.

This race also was a Win and You’re In for the Preakness, so the connections of Anothertwistafate will have that as an intriguing option down the line. There’s also the fact that he’s by the late Scat Daddy, who happens to be the same sire as last year’s Derby and Triple Crown winner, Justify.

Until he runs a good race on dirt, though, I’ll be circumspect. But I’d make him about 1-2 in the Jeff Ruby on March 9 at Turfway if he continues on the synthetic path for at least one more start.

In this race, Anothertwistafate broke sharply and took the early lead with KINGLY just to his outside. He rolled along comfortably on the lead, and then Hernandez let out a notch nearing the far turn as Kingly inched closer. He put away Kingly before reaching the top of the stretch, quickly opened a commanding lead, and powered home under a vigorous hand ride while switching over to his left lead midway through the lane. He was much the best.

Kingly, who finished second, veered in and bumped REY COLIMAN leaving the gate, then quickly recovered to press the pace, though he switched leads three times in the opening furlong as if unsure of the footing. He set up shop around the first turn just behind and to the outside of Anothertwistafate, inched closer three furlongs out and then was asked to advance, was about a half-length behind when he came under the whip while struggling to stay with the leader, was put away in upper stretch, but kept to his task to beat everyone else.

MORE ICE, who was third, bumped with KNIGHT’S CROSS leaving the gate, was able to drop in to the two path going into the first turn while mid-pack, then swung out to the middle of the track entering the backstretch during a slow (25.71) second quarter. He was sent along while four paths wide three furlongs out, got as close as 2 1/2 lengths behind the winner midway on the far turn, but couldn’t stay with the top two through the lane.

ANGELO’S PRIDE, who was fourth, hopped leaving the gate to be away last, saved ground while toward the rear of the field around the first turn, then was taken to the middle of the course just before turning into the backstretch. He made a pretty decent run while about five paths wide on the far turn, then failed to switch leads and hung a bit late. He was facing much tougher competition than in his prior starts and should be very live next time if matched with his friends.

WEEKLY CALL, who was fifth, took a slight bump from Rey Coliman leaving the gate, then raced just behind the leaders while between rivals around the first turn. He went into the far turn in the three path while between rivals and had to take up while being outrun, tried to re-engage and was taken to the four path, then went evenly the rest of the way.

MAYOR COBB, who finished sixth, was toward the rear of the field while three paths wide into the first turn, trailed into the far turn, had a bit of traffic trouble toward the rear of the field nearing the quarter pole, but was outrun throughout and merely passed tired rivals.

THE CREEP, who was seventh, saved ground while just behind Anothertwistafate around the first turn, allowed KING OF SPEED to come up inside him nearing the half-mile pole to put him between rivals, was shoved along in the two path on the far turn, got through inside, but made no impact in the lane.

Rey Coliman, who was eighth, was bumped by Kingly leaving the gate and then caromed off Weekly Call. He raced between rivals while toward the rear of the field into the first turn, had to alter course when Weekly Call took up in front of him three furlongs out, was shoved along aggressively midway on the turn, was fanned five paths wide into the lane, and never was involved.

DATA HAWK, who was ninth, broke a step slowly, trailed into the first turn, saved ground for most of the race before tipping to the three path entering the lane, and was always outrun.

King of Speed, who was 10th, raced in the clear while mid-pack and saving into the first turn, and remained there until midway down the backstretch when he was inexplicably asked to quickly advance. He was right behind Anothertwistafate heading into the far turn, was shoved along anew when struggling to keep up, took up while being outrun nearing the quarter pole, and dropped back. He looked like a promising turf horse late last year, but between running on yielding ground in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf at Churchill Downs, then on dirt in the Los Alamitos Futurity, and now synthetic, he’s lost his way. This panicky ride did him no favors, either. Hopefully the reset button can be hit before it’s too late.

Knight’s Cross, who finished last of 11, bumped with More Ice leaving the gate, was hustled along to go into the first turn just behind the leaders while widest of a three-horse spread, was even with Kingly heading into the backstretch, was asked for his all three furlongs out while wide, struggled to keep up, then dropped away.