Road to the Derby: El Camino Real Derby analysis

$100,900 El Camino Real Derby; 1 1/8 miles (Tapeta); Golden Gate Fields; Feb. 17, 2018

(10 Derby qualifying points for a win, 4 for second, 2 for third, 1 for fourth)

Winner: Paved, by Quality Road
Trainer: Michael McCarthy
Jockey: Drayden Van Dyke
Owner: Ciaglia Racing LLC and Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners
Beyer Speed Figure: 86

:: ROAD TO THE KENTUCKY DERBY: Prep races, point standings, replays, and analysis

This race is likely to have absolutely no impact on the Derby trail, as only two of the nine entrants were even nominated to the Triple Crown, and they finished fifth and eighth.

The winner, PAVED, is an interesting horse to watch, though. A filly racing against boys, she was put in this race on the theory her good turf form would transfer to synthetic. It did. She got a listed stakes win, and she acts like a filly with great promise. This was a shrewd move by her connections to run in this spot against a suspect field of males and get some black type and a nice $60,000 paycheck. She is not nominated to the Triple Crown, and her connections have no intention of nominating her.

In this race, Paved saved ground from her inside draw and went into the first turn in third place. She continued to save ground all the way to the far turn, split horses midway on the turn to go after MUGARITZ, roared past him inside the furlong pole and was in no danger late.

:: The Road to the Kentucky Derby Player's Package

CITY PLAN, who finished second, broke a bit slowly and then had to check nearing the wire the first turn, causing him to be shuffled back to seventh. He raced between horses in traffic entering the first turn, had just one horse beat entering the far turn, was able to save ground on that turn, split horses a furlong out, and finished well.

BLENDED CITIZEN, who was third, bobbled a bit leaving the gate, saved ground into the first turn while following Paved, inched closer nearing the far turn but was outfooted on the turn, then finished decently after straightening away in the lane.

Mugaritz, who was fourth, bumped with UNLAWFUL ACT leaving the gate, moved up to stalk CALEXMAN around the first turn and into the backstretch, moved closer while going well within himself heading into the far turn, took the lead three furlongs out when Calexman called it a day, had a clear lead a quarter-mile out, was overtaken by Paved inside the furlong pole, and then tired.

CHOO CHOO, who was fifth, raced between horses while just behind the leaders heading into the first turn, raced alongside Paved down the backstretch while in a perfect striking position, came under an aggressive ride three furlongs out to try and hold his position, raced three wide on the far turn, and had no response through the lane.

COULD BE THE ONE, who finished sixth, was exiting sprints but oddly was rated in his two-turn debut and was last going into the first turn. He trailed until the far turn, hugged the rail while trying to rally while following City Plan, was angled to the middle of the track for the stretch drive, but could make no impact. The strategy employed here was strange. It did not give him his best chance.

EPICAL, who was seventh, was jostled between runners a couple of times coming to the wire the first time, raced three paths wide while mid-pack around the first turn, went into the far turn about four paths wide and came under a ride, but had no response and dropped back.

Calexman, who was eighth, took the lead while under a hold heading into the first turn, veered out and then back in midway on that turn, continued to lead to the far turn, was overtaken by Mugaritz three furlongs out, then faded badly through the lane.

Unlawful Act, who finished last of nine, broke slowly, was bumped shortly after the start, then had to take up, all before a furlong of the race was run. He was caught three to four paths wide around the first turn while toward the rear of the field, never could get over and went into the far turn five paths wide, and never got involved. This was a brutal trip. He could be a sneaky live longshot back with softer company.