Road to the Derby: Breeders' Cup Juvenile analysis

Grade 1, $2 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile; 1 1/16 miles; Santa Anita; Nov. 1, 2019

(20 Derby qualifying points for a win, 8 for second, 4 for third, 2 for fourth)

Winner: Storm the Court, by Court Vision

Trainer: Peter Eurton

Jockey: Flavien Prat

Owner: Exline-Border Racing LLC, David Bernsen LLC, Susanna Wilson, and Dan Hudock

Beyer Speed Figure: 87

It’s going to take some time – if ever -- to make sense of this race, being as favored DENNIS’ MOMENT literally went to his knees at the start and was eliminated, second choice EIGHT RINGS was flat as a pancake, and the runners had to negotiate a surface that was fast, but very tiring, resulting in a spread-out field. The number of horses who bobbled leaving the gate in this race and had trouble changing leads was evidence many just couldn’t handle the going.

The one who loved the conditions most was 45-1 STORM THE COURT, who had been a well-beaten third in the American Pharoah in his previous start, behind Eight Rings, but those grinding style was well suited to the surface. He turned back a stern challenge from another longshot, 28-1 ANNEAU D’OR, to win by a head. Even accounting for the sluggishness of the surface, the Beyer Figure was only moderate. But Storm the Court strikes me as a relentless sort who, while not the most naturally brilliant, just won’t quit.

Storm the Court was hustled away from the gate and led into the first turn, with Eight Rings just outside him, about a length back. They stayed that way until the far turn, when Eight Rings tried but failed to get past Storm the Court, and then Anneau d’Or ranged up outside Storm the Court with a quarter-mile to go. But he too never could get past Storm the Court, who fought off his final rival to the finish line, and still was in front a furlong after the finish on the gallop out. He’s a fighter.

Anneau d’Or, who was second, bobbled slightly leaving the gate, but had enough speed to bank into the first turn in the three path, just outside Eight Rings. There was no opportunity to get over down the backstretch, so he had to go three wide on the far turn, too, and came under an aggressive ride midway on the turn when advancing on Storm the Court. He tried to drift out a bit at the quarter pole, was late to change leads once entering the lane, but kept to his task and narrowly lost. He only had one prior race, against maidens on turf at Golden Gate, and would have been in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf if he had been able to get in. This showed he can act on any surface, and considering he had just the one start, it was a big try.

WRECKING CREW, who was third, drafted right behind Storm the Court into the first turn, stayed in that ideal striking position until the far turn, followed Storm the Court around much of the far turn, then was wheeled out at the top of the lane to the four path in order to get in the clear. He loomed menacingly outside Storm the Court and Anneau d’Or a furlong out, did not swap over to his proper lead until nearly at the sixteenth pole, then flattened out. I’m not sure more distance will be his friend.

SCABBARD, who was fourth, was a bit rank while in traffic heading into the first turn, was taken outside rivals and wound up in the four path late on that turn and into the backstretch, was outrun into the far turn and dropped back to sixth, saved ground into the lane, and went evenly through the stretch.

FULL FLAT, who finished fifth, bobbled leaving the gate, was three paths wide toward the rear of the field around the first turn while under a snug hold, then came under urging three furlongs out while in the three path while following Anneau d’Or. He never changed leads through the lane and just missed catching Scabbard for fourth, though neither he nor Scabbard ever were serious threats. This was his first try on dirt after three races on turf in Japan, where he will return.

Eight Rings, who was sixth, was sent away from the gate to take up a forward position outside Storm the Court, was a bit keen turning into the backstretch, was about a head back of Storm the Court coming off the final bend while between Storm the Court and Anneau d’Oro, then faded badly the final furlong. His last work before this race was not up to his usual standards, so perhaps a freshening is in order. His trainer, Bob Baffert, the day after the race blamed himself, saying he didn’t have Eight Rings fit enough.

SHOPLIFTED, who was seventh, had to check between rivals going into the first turn and got shuffled back behind Wrecking Crew, saved ground while toward the rear of the field to the far turn, largely was in the two path on the far turn, but never made any impact after despite an energetic ride.

Dennis’ Moment, who was last of eight, took a terrible stumble leaving the gate from his inside draw and was briefly on his knees. He got back up, but was well behind the field. He made a minor rally to nearly get even with Shoplifted three furlongs out, drifted into the lane four paths wide, and also was late to change leads while never making an impact. He came back absolutely covered from the spray of dirt, his bay coat turned gray. This race is a throwout. He had no chance.