Road to the Derby analysis: Grey Stakes

Grade 3, $156,300 Grey Stakes, 1 1/16 miles (Polytrack), Woodbine, Oct. 5, 2014

(10 Derby qualifying points for a win, 4 for second, 2 for third, 1 for fourth)

Winner: International Star

Trainer: Mike Maker

Jockey: Rafael Hernandez

Owner: Ken and Sarah Ramsey

Beyer Speed Figure: 66

The Road to the Derby took a detour across the border to Canada for this race, which was run on Polytrack and got a disturbingly low Beyer Speed Figure, so the overall quality of this race may be in question.

INTERNATIONAL STAR, the only horse in the race whose most recent outing had not been at Woodbine, shipped in and got the money. After breaking from the rail in the two-turn race, he was able to save ground for much of the trip, only had to tip to the three-path for room entering the lane, and closed with a rush in the final furlong to win while swapping back to his left lead in the final yards of the race.

:: ROAD TO THE KENTUCKY DERBY: Prep races, point standings, replays

The final time of 1:45.15 for 1 1/16 miles on was .07 of a second faster than that recorded by Conquest Harlanate two races later in the Mazarine Stakes for 2-year-old fillies.

This race may not mean much in the long term in regards to the Kentucky Derby. But, as shown with We Miss Artie, the Ramseys are clever about running in synthetic races to make a horse eligible for the Derby. So, if International Star doesn’t run well on dirt early in his 3-year-old year, look for him to be pointed to something like the Spiral Stakes at Turfway, which We Miss Artie won last year to earn a berth in the Derby. That race is worth 50 points to the winner on the system used by Churchill Downs to determine the field should more than the maximum 20 runners enter. Essentially, the Spiral is a Win and You’re In race.

CONQUEST TYPHOON, who finished second, had an ideal trip. He attended the lead throughout, put away pace rival Imperial Dream in upper stretch and kicked away to a two-length lead with a furlong to go, but was run down by International Star while just holding second by a nose over Hollywood Critic.

HOLLYWOOD CRITIC, who was third, was three paths wide on the first turn after breaking from the outside stall in the field of eight. He came under an aggressive ride at the quarter pole when unable to keep up with the leaders, made a run at Conquest Typhoon in deep stretch, but saw the winner flash by him on the outside.

FLASHAWAY, who finished fourth, had an eventful trip. He was squeezed back between horses down the backstretch to lose position, checked anew on the far turn, swung out to the five-path for racing room, and finished fairly well while on his wrong lead and desirous of lugging in.

CROWN PRINCE, who finished fifth, stumbled slightly at the start but quickly recovered, and then had a ground-saving trip just behind the leaders and simply wasn’t good enough.

GEORGE McFLY, who was sixth, got to the rail heading into the first turn, was taken to the middle of the track down the backstretch, remained four paths wide on the turn, was herded a bit by Flashaway in upper stretch, swapped over to his wrong lead, and went evenly thereafter.

U S MARSHALL, who was seventh, raced mid-pack between horses and then began a steady retreat on the far turn.

IMPERIAL DREAM, who finished eighth and last, set the pace for the first six furlongs while shadowed by Conquest Typhoon, was second entering the lane, but tired badly and swapped over to his left lead in deep stretch.

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