Road to the Derby 2018: Sunland Derby analysis

Grade 3, $800,000 Sunland Derby; 1 1/8 miles; Sunland Park; March 25, 2018
(50 Derby qualifying points for a win, 20 for second, 10 for third, 5 for fourth)

Winner: Runaway Ghost, by Ghostzapper
Trainer: Todd Fincher
Jockey: Tracy Hebert
Owner: Joe Peacock
Beyer Speed Figure: 85

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RUNAWAY GHOST finished off a productive season at Sunland by winning the track’s richest race, a cause that was aided by Reride – who beat him in the local prep, the Mine That Bird Derby – being sent to Dubai for an even richer prize, the United Arab Emirates Derby. Runaway Ghost was clearly best in this race. He made a wide, extended run on the far turn and kept on motoring. The flow of this race favored the late runners who rallied wide. There was a fast pace, and the leaders went into a strong headwind down the backstretch.

When Runaway Ghost faced top-class company last December in the Los Alamitos CashCall Futurity, he wore blinkers, was extremely hard to manage early, dueled for the lead, and wore himself out. He no longer wears blinkers, and in this race was allowed to rate off the pace and finish, a style that served him well. So while the Beyer Figure in this race was well below the best of the division, and this field did not feature the elite prospects on the Derby trail, he’s a better horse now than he was when McKinzie and Solomini crushed him 3 1/2 months ago.

In this race, Runaway Ghost was taken in hand leaving the gate and wound up about four to five paths wide heading around the first turn while mid-pack, moved closer down the backstretch while in the middle of the track, launched his rally from the four path on the far turn, vaulted past the leaders near the quarter pole, opened a commanding lead, and was never threatened through the lane.

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DREAM BABY DREAM, who was second, raced near the rear of the pack while two to three paths wide on the first turn, was taken to the middle of the track down the backstretch and wound up about five paths wide on the far turn, made an extended rally to reach second in upper stretch, never threatened the winner, but was well clear of everyone else.

PEACE, who was third, was bumped by HOLLYWOOD STAR leaving the gate, raced mid-pack while between runners around the first turn, had to wait for room entering the far turn while between horses and behind a wall of other rivals, angled out late on the turn to enter the stretch about six paths wide, then plugged away to just get third while no threat to the top two.

SEVEN TRUMPETS, who finished fourth, was wrestled back in the opening furlong and was toward the latter half of the field in the four path around the first turn, was just outside Peace entering the far turn and got first run on him, rallied in the three path on the turn, tipped out about four wide entering the lane, but was outfinished late for the show by Peace.

DARK VADER, who was fifth, checked at the start, ended up in a ground-saving position while in the first half of the field around the first turn, was outrun in the early stages of the far turn and wound up having to wait in traffic midway on the turn, encountered a wall of horses when initially tipped out in upper stretch, angled back toward the rail, and closed decently. He might have been third best on the day.

CHOO CHOO, who was sixth, raced just behind the dueling leaders while just outside Dark Vader around the first turn, was ridden along nearing the far turn to hold his position between rivals, couldn’t muster the needed acceleration to make a forward move, and finished evenly.

SHANE ZAIN, who was seventh, bobbled a bit leaving the gate but had good speed and went up to contest the lead while three paths wide, stayed in that spot to the far turn, battled for the lead from the three path around the far turn, poked his head in front for a split second before being overtaken by Runaway Ghost, started to weaken in upper stretch, was late to change leads, and drifted in through the lane while obviously spent.

ALL OUT BLITZ, who was eighth, was sent along quickly from his inside stall to take the lead, appeared to want to lug out a bit on the first turn while inside a three-way duel, set a hot pace to the far turn, started to weaken midway on the turn, appeared as though he still wanted to get out through the lane, and tired. He wants to sprint.

PRINCE LUCKY, who was ninth, trailed around the first turn while saving ground, tried to navigate his way through traffic but had to tap on the brakes entering the far turn, was angled out to the six path coming off the bend, and passed a few stragglers.

NEW YORK CENTRAL, who was 10th, broke best of all and battled for the early lead while between rivals, was right on All Out Blitz’s hip down the backstretch, continued to vie for the lead between rivals early on the far turn, began to weaken nearing the head of the lane, and gave way readily thereafter.

Hollywood Star, who was 11th, veered out at the start and bumped Peace, lacked speed per usual and raced near the rear of the pack while hugging the rail around the first turn, had to be asked hard a half-mile out to hold his position but dropped back to last and drifted out to the middle of the track by the end of the turn in a dull effort.

FORTIFIED EFFORT, who finished last of 12, showed good speed from his outside stall leaving the gate and then was cleverly angled toward the rail to sit just behind the three-way battle for the lead around the first turn, followed All Out Blitz down the backstretch, had to be shoved along aggressively three furlongs out, then wilted through the final quarter.